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Topic Started: February 12 2011, 12:38 PM (3,856 Views)
Mark (IWO)
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SUMMARY: Low cloud and fog will continue to deprive parts of the south and east of sunshine at times this week. However, even here the low cloud will lift as the week progresses. Elsewhere, there will be showers or light rain in the south west at times but overall the next week will bring largely dry and sunny conditions. Temperatures will be highest in the west and well inland and could reach 20-22C by Saturday. Temperatures will remain considerably lower where low cloud and fog persists.

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TODAY … Apart from some morning showers in Kerry and nearby parts of Cork, most places will be dry today. Hazy sunshine more likely well inland due to low cloud and fog banks drifting inland from the south and east coasts. The low cloud will affect north coasts later due to winds shifting northeast 15-25 mph. Warm inland, cool near the shore due to sea breezes. Highs 17-20 C inland, 12-15 C shoreline areas with sea breezes.

TONIGHT … Further drizzle possible in the southwest. Fog banks along the coast. Partly cloudy and mild elsewhere. Lows 6-10 C.

WEDNESDAY … Hazy sunshine inland and in the west. Low cloud and fog banks the near east coast and some parts of the south coast. Risk of an isolated shower or afternoon rain on outer southwest coasts. Winds generally E to SE about 15-25 mph. Highs 17-20 C inland, 12-15 C east coast.

THURSDAY … Variable cloud with some showers or brief thundershowers, mainly in western counties. Warm and rather muggy, except near east and south coasts where sea breezes will make it feel cooler. Lows 7-11 C and highs generally 17-20 C, except about 12-15 C coastal areas in onshore winds.

GOOD FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals. Isolated showers or thundershowers. Warm and muggy, temperatures similar to Thursday.

WEEKEND … Not much change but possibly more sunshine and fewer showers around on Saturday especially. Highs could reach 20-22 C inland.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Warm again Monday, slight cooling trend during the week as east winds strengthen again and back to northeast. Highs by mid-week could be back into mid-teens.
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
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Mark (IWO)
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Much of Ireland can expect summer-like weather over the Easter holiday weekend.

Temperatures inland will rise into the low 20s by Saturday. But east to south-easterly breezes will keep eastern coastal areas somewhat cooler, with temperatures hovering between 15 and 18 degrees.

Temperatures next week are expected to return to near average for the time of year but it will continue to feel pleasantly warm in sunshine.

Commenting on the coming week’s weather, Irish Weather Online forecaster Peter O’Donnell said: “Low cloud and fog will continue to deprive parts of the south and east of sunshine at times this week. However, even here the low cloud will lift as the week progresses. Elsewhere, there will be showers or light rain in the south west at times but overall the next week will bring largely dry and sunny conditions. Temperatures will be highest in the west and well inland and could reach 20-22C by Saturday.”

“It will be warm again on Bank Holiday Monday, but this will be followed by a slight cooling trend during Tuesday as east winds strengthen again and back to the northeast. Highs by mid-week could be back into mid-teens”, he added.

The coming weekend’s weather is the result of a high pressure system that is stationary over Scandinavia. The weather system will push dry air over Ireland in a slack east to south-easterly wind flow. There is a small risk, however, that the southwest will see showers or thunderstorms on Friday and early Saturday.
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
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SUMMARY: The initial outlook from earlier this week of largely dry and bright weather for this weekend has been downgraded. Showers or more prolonged periods of rain will affect parts of the country over the Bank Holiday Weekend while temperatures will drop back by Easter Sunday. The UK will enjoy fine weather throughout but weak weather systems will affect Ireland and western Scotland at times.

TODAY ... Hazy or even foggy at first, then some sunny intervals developing away from fog-bound coasts. Warm again with highs inland 17-22 C. Any morning showers are likely to end shortly. But some coasts may remain fog-bound all day and temperatures there will be 13-15 C. The Pollen Count will be 'Very High' in Leinster today. 'Low' to 'Moderate' elsewhere.

TONIGHT ... Hazy to foggy with a risk of showers returning to the south and west before morning, lows 7-11 C.

FRIDAY ... Periods of rain in the south and west and later extending to Ulster. Some eastern counties remaining dry with a few sunny breaks. Warmest inland in eastern to central counties where temperatures will range 15-19 C. Temperatures closer to 13-15 C in rain and fog further west and south. Very mild on Friday night with some drizzle or light rain. Lows 8-12 C. The Pollen Count will be 'High' in Ulster and Leinster. 'Low' to 'Moderate' elsewhere.

SATURDAY ... A pulse of heavier rain now appears likely to move into the south and spread through eastern counties, with some thunder possible. Despite this, a few sunny breaks could develop here and there with highs of 16 to 20 C. Rainfalls of 10-20 mms are possible especially from about Waterford north to Kildare and Dublin. Cool but mostly dry on Saturday night with lows 3-7 C.

EASTER SUNDAY ... Expect partly to mostly sunny skies and highs 13-16 C. The warmer spell with highs in the low to mid 20s will continue over the U.K. and France, and the front will move into Scotland before breaking apart.

OUTLOOK ... The warmer air will try to return west again, but the models are now picking up more frequent frontal waves and disturbances. Present indications are that next week could become rather wet at times, especially in southern counties. However, the outlook remains very uncertain with weak features that are challenging for weather models to handle.
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
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SUMMARY: There will be periods of sunshine during the Bank Holiday Weekend but all areas can expect some light rain or drizzle at times. Yesterday’s high temperature of 22.7c at Shannon Airport will not be matched over the coming days but it will remain mild up to and including Sunday. It will be briefly cooler on Monday and Tuesday before temperatures pick up again by mid-week. There will be plenty of showers around before more unsettled weather and cooler temperatures look like returning by late next week and into next weekend.

TODAY … Warm and humid with scattered showers or outbreaks of thundery rain, generally not too heavy or prolonged. There could be a more sustained downpour in western Connacht this afternoon. As a result, rainfalls 2-5 mms generally but potentially 5-15 mms in western Connacht. Some eastern locations could avoid most or all of this shower activity and remain largely dry. Highest temperatures ranging between 17-21 C and winds SSE veering SW 15-25 mph. Sunshine will not be too frequent but will feel subtropical when it does occur.

TONIGHT … Mist and fog, especially in the south, where periods of rain will redevelop after midnight. 5-10 mms expected there, just drizzle elsewhere. Lows 10-14 C.

SATURDAY … Rain continuing at times in the east. Fog lifting slowly elsewhere to reveal brighter skies and eventually some sunny intervals (fog may however persist near some western coastlines). Not quite as warm, highs 14-17 C.

EASTER SUNDAY … A cooler morning than recently (briefly cold around 0600h with lows near 2-5 C in rural areas). Sunshine from early morning and it will feel pleasantly warm by midday. Clouding over later with some light rain spreading into the west by late in the day. Highs 14-17 C.

MONDAY … Variable cloud with a risk of some heavier showers at times, possibly thundery. Lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

OUTLOOK … Some warmer sunshine with highs climbing back up to between 18-21 C, by midweek. The weather will deteriorate with intervals of sustained and possibly heavy rainfall week towards the weekend of 30 April to 1 May, with temperatures becoming steady in the range of 12-14 C. The first week of May looks fresher and possibly quite a bit cooler as more of a west to northwest flow develops.
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TODAY … Rain clearing from Leinster this morning with drier and brighter conditions following. Further west, most of the day will be partly cloudy and dry, but there could be brief isolated showers in Mayo and Donegal. A fresher day for most, with lower humidity and highs 14-17 C.

TONIGHT … Clear intervals with isolated patches of mist developing. Rather chilly with a slight risk of frost in sheltered inland locations. Lows mainly 3-6 C.

EASTER SUNDAY … A bright start with plenty of sunshine likely in the east and south. Clouding over during the morning in the west with occasional showers or drizzle to follow, but evening sunny breaks will follow in behind this weak front too (rainfall totals 1-2 mms at most). The precipitation is not likely to reach the east or south. Highest temperatures between 14-17 C.

MONDAY … Apart from some drizzle or light rain in a few places, the day will be cloudy with sunny intervals. Rather chilly compared to the past week, overnight lows near 5 C and highs 12-15 C.

TUESDAY … Cloudy with sunny intervals. Slight risk of showers but a dry day for most. Lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C.

OUTLOOK … More sunshine than cloud mid-week. Near normal temperatures in a moderate easterly flow. Cloudy and humid towards the end of the week, with outbreaks of rain that could become rather heavy in the south. Warmer again for a day or two in early May before a colder trend sets in on northwest winds.
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
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SUMMARY: The coming week will see above average temperatures again as Ireland looks set to experience a record warm April. Temperatures will hit 19-20c in one or two parts later this week but will average in the mid teens before this. All parts of the country will experience cloud and drizzle over the coming days but sunshine will also be a prominent feature of the weather. The weekend will be warm and muggy with further sunny intervals mixed with thundery showers. The same weather pattern looks set to continue into early next week.

TODAY … Mostly cloudy this morning with further light rain or drizzle becoming confined mostly to Munster and the southeast. Further rainfall amounts 2-4 mms in a few places. Sunshine may break through by late morning in the north and by afternoon in central counties, but it could stay cloudy all day in the south. Highs 13-17 C (warmest likely in inland parts of the west). Moderate E-NE winds 15-25 mph at times this afternoon.

TONIGHT … Clear intervals developing, with persistent cloud and some drizzle near south coast. Lows 3-7 C in northern and central areas to 7-10 C in the south.

WEDNESDAY … More cloud than sunshine in the west and south, with some drizzle or light showers possible. Longer spells of sunshine in the north and east with light to moderate east winds. Highs 14-17 C.

THURSDAY … Generally sunny with a few cloudy intervals. Winds ENE 10-20 mph. Overnights lows near 5 C and daytime highs near 16 C.

FRIDAY … Sunny intervals and feeling warm. Clouding over later in the southeast. E-SE winds. Lows near 5 C, highs near 18 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK … Warm and muggy with scattered showers or outbreaks of thundery rain at times, these more likely in the south as well as parts of east Ulster. Lows near 8 C and highs near 19 C. The rainfall potential is probably in the range of 10-20 mms but not likely to be observed everywhere.

FURTHER OUTLOOK … Warm and dry for a while, but with a tendency to become more cloudy and cooler as east winds back more to N-NE later in the week. The GFS weather model (see below image of upper air/1500m temperatures) is actually showing quite cold weather around 8-9 May in a northerly flow. This is too far off to be overly reliable but something to check on.

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A considerable improvement in our weather is on the way for the June Bank Holiday Weekend after the windiest month in Ireland since February 1990 and the windiest May since 1986.

Following on from the warmest April on record (read more), May started off with the largest outbreak of wild fires in living memory (read more) and was followed on May 23rd by Storm Udo (read more).

June will start warm and sunny bringing to an end an unseasonably chilly, wet and windy past few weeks. However, there is no indication at present that the weather will remain very warm or completely settled for an extended period. North to north-easterly winds early next week are expected to keep temperatures at or slightly above average for the time of year while some showers can also be expected.

There has been much talk around the country in recent days of a repeat of the heatwave of 1976 but there is no indication from the long range weather models that such a setup in our weather is likely to materialise in the near future. Despite this high pressure is expected to remain close to Ireland and the UK for much of the coming month. Temperatures for the month of June are also forecast to finish 0.5C to 1.0C above average while near normal rainfall is also expected (see our Summer Forecast below).

‘Improvements on the way’

A gradual improvement in our weather will occur on Wednesday. Warmer air will arrive and winds will abate during the afternoon, especially in inland parts of the south. Thursday and Friday will be both sunny days with temperatures reaching 19 to 23 C, warmest inland and in the west. Some low cloud and fog is possible near coasts, in a setup similar to that of April 2011.

There will be little change on over the weekend although sea breezes will cool some areas near the east coast and north Ulster where there will it will be rather hazy and even foggy. Daytime temps will range between 18-22 C but could be held down to 14-17 C near the east coast.

According to Irish Weather Online forecaster Peter O’Donnell: “A vast improvement in our weather is on the way. All areas will see a rise in temperatures although the edge will be taken off the temperatures in parts of north Ulster and the east coast due to a northeasterly breeze. Low cloud and fog is also possible in these areas with the best of any sunshine and the warmest temperatures occurring inland and in the west.”

Commenting on next week’s weather, Peter said: “There may be an interruption in the warm, dry spell according to some guidance, as stronger northeast winds develop and push the warmer air back into the southwest counties. The rest of the country could then become cooler with variable cloud. It’s still a week off and this indication could fade out of the forecast with any luck.

“The further outlook would at this point be a return to more seasonable but generally dry weather in a slack northerly flow with small weak features giving a constant variety of wind directions and setting up a few isolated showers”, Peter added.

The above update was published at 11am on Monday, 30 May 2011. See our Daily Long Range Forecast for updates.

UKMO Forecast For The Week Ahead

Summer 2011 Weather Outlook (originally published on 02 May)

The Summer 2011 Outlook has been prepared by Irish Weather Online forecaster Peter O’Donnell, a Canada-based climatologist who specialises in providing long range weather forecasts for Ireland and the United Kingdom.

This is Peter’s second seasonal outlook for Irish Weather Online (read Winter forecast, issued on 15 November 2010).

SUMMER 2011 OUTLOOK: In general, expect a reasonably warm and dry to near normal summer (this would apply to the months June to September, and also to “astronomical summer” 21 June to 21 Sept).

There will be intervals of very warm, dry weather at times, separated by periods that are close to normal in temperature with more frequent rainfall. It is not expected to become oppressively warm or hot for long periods, but there could be a few hot days. The trend from June to August is likely to be a drying trend.

Now, as the current conditions are quite dry in the north especially, what this means is that May will bring somewhat more normal rainfalls and so will June, so this current drought should ease although not likely totally erased. Then a somewhat drier trend will return, and this applies to north and south. This dry trend is likely to continue into September.

JUNE
Temps 0.5C to 1C above average
Near normal rainfall

JULY
Temps 0C to 0.5c above average
80-100% normal rainfall

AUGUST
0.7C to 1.4C above average
60-80% of normal rainfall

August trend expected to continue in September.

This appears likely to be another rather active tropical storm season in the North Atlantic so there is likely a higher than random chance of a brush with one remnant storm system most likely in September or October.

While these comments are meant to be quite general, local storms can always develop within this pattern and be quite notable for small areas. The pattern I foresee for this summer is not particularly “potent” for severe storm development but a long-range forecast really cannot hope to predict that sort of detail months in advance.
Although I don’t expect a major heat wave like that experienced in August 2003 or July 2006, this summer does show a little higher than average on a heat wave index from analogues, so I would not want to rule out that chance, but would rate it as about one in five (random might be more like one in ten).

Anyone with comments or questions in relation to my forecast may submit them on the comments section of this page or alternatively via email to podonnell@irishweatheronline.com.
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
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Patrick (IWO)
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Certainly looking bit better towards the weekend with some more than welcome warmth by day. Only thing that bothers me is that we are not tapping into any real deep sourced continental air mass during this settled spell with all the main models seeming to agree that the airflow will be more of a modified polar bent. Either way though, looking good!
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SATURDAY ... Continuing partly cloudy to sunny and warm in west and south, but north and east, at least near coasts, will become a bit cooler due to a stronger northeast breeze 10-20 mph. This may also bring some low cloud and fog inland. But otherwise, many places especially in the west and south should reach 20-23 C again, with 15-19 C north and east.

SUNDAY-MONDAY ... Slight changes will develop as the northeast breeze continues but with somewhat cooler air mixing in, but even so, many places in the west and south should remain dry, see at least some sunshine, and reach highs of 17-21 C. The north and east will see more extensive marine layer or sea breeze cooling with local fog and low cloud near the coasts, in particular north of Dublin and in north Ulster. This will hold temperatures down to about 14-17 C there. A few showers may develop in the north later Monday too.

OUTLOOK ... Showery in the north but remaining generally dry central and south next week, temperatures returning to more seasonable values almost everywhere, with highs 15-18 C. Those interested in the following weekend (11-12 June), keep your fingers crossed, the models really have no strong signals but have from time to time been suggesting a cooler northerly flow. This may be only a subtle change in a generally dry pattern though.
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
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Peter O'Donnell
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Hi folks, Peter O'Donnell here. I hope you're enjoying the Bank Holiday weekend and if you are, it must mean you're either in the south, or inside.

Just wanted to mention that a nasty spell of wet, cold weather is about to return with a strong "round two" in the north late Monday. Tuesday and most of Wednesday will be very chilly and wet in much of the country but especially in Connacht and Ulster. Daytime temperatures could be held down to values in the single digits in some places (definitely at higher elevations in the north) and the air mass on the way is just about cold enough to give snow on higher summits in Mayo and Donegal. Not sure if anyone will see this because of widespread low cloud, and certainly we hope nobody plans to climb on Tuesday or Wednesday. But this is about as cold as it can get in the daytime at this time of year. The south won't be quite as badly affected, but some of the heavy showers that come and go there could contain hail and thunder. This will all arrive after what looks like a half-decent BH Monday, so for once, the timing is actually not so bad, unless your job has you outside during the week. I think this nasty spell of weather will slowly relent, there won't be any sudden improvements but just a long, slow trend to better weather late in the week and through the following weekend. Take care. -- Peter O'Donnell, IWO forecasting
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THURSDAY and FRIDAY … Little change except that the northern counties will get out of the steady rain and into the same showery conditions that had prevailed earlier in the south. Lows near 4 C and highs near 13 C, with gusty W-NW winds 20-40 mph. There may be some very heavy hail showers, especially in western counties.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK … Saturday may give a slight improvement with partly cloudy skies and highs 15-16 C. However, rain is likely to push in by early Sunday from the southwest as part of a general warming trend. The following week should be closer to mid-June average temperatures, reaching 17-20 C at times.
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WEEKEND OUTLOOK … Seasonably warm in the south but somewhat cool in the more overcast north. Partly cloudy to sunny in the south. Showers, mostly in the north, may occasionally be heavy and thundery. Lows near 10 C and highs near 20 C south, 15-17 C north.

FURTHER OUTLOOK … The week of 4-8 July may prove to be near normal in temperature and unsettled but not overly wet in a somewhat disturbed westerly flow. My research suggests that the next strong warming interval might occur in the second half of July and this may be the hottest part of the summer.
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy but not as windy, with just a few brief and isolated showers. Northwest to northerly breezes 10-20 mph. Highs 15-17 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain may develop across the south towards morning, otherwise, partly cloudy with isolated showers. Cool, lows 7-9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Morning showers across the south, variable cloud with isolated showers further north (rainfalls 1-3 mms generally but 3-7 mms possible in south) Highs 15-17 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy with isolated showers, and feeling cool. Overnight lows 6-9 C and highs daytime 15 to 18 C.

FRIDAY ... A rather cool start with lows 5-8 C due to clearing skies, then intervals of cloud and sunshine. A slight chance of showers. Highs 15 to 18 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy. Showers may return to parts of the north. A bit warmer, lows 7-9 C and highs 16 to 19 C.

SUNDAY ... Some hazy sunshine except for cloud and drizzle near northwest coasts. Warmer with highs 17-21 C.

OUTLOOK ... Very warm next week with some uncertainty in relation to whether subtropical humidity will spoil the warm spell for some, or whether it will it be generally sunny. This depends mainly on the fine tuning, but it looks increasingly likely that temperatures will easily get into the low to mid 20s and possibly as high as 27-29 C in the pattern now showing up with regularity on the various models. There will be the risk of low cloud, fog and drizzle near west and north coasts, but the air mass looks so warm that it could become hot in the east and inland south.
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
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Mark (IWO)
July 19 2011, 10:25 AM


OUTLOOK ... Very warm next week with some uncertainty in relation to whether subtropical humidity will spoil the warm spell for some, or whether it will it be generally sunny. This depends mainly on the fine tuning, but it looks increasingly likely that temperatures will easily get into the low to mid 20s and possibly as high as 27-29 C in the pattern now showing up with regularity on the various models. There will be the risk of low cloud, fog and drizzle near west and north coasts, but the air mass looks so warm that it could become hot in the east and inland south.
Really do hope, that the outlook holds up.More like October weather, rather than July :( :( :(

I would like 32c . Posted Image

But I guess I will settle for 27/29c. if thats all. thats on offer Posted Image
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Edited by Audi-Tek, July 19 2011, 04:35 PM.
Why is cloud 9 so amazing ? What is wrong with cloud 8 ?
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By RONAN MCGREEVY, www.irishtimes.com, Updated: 22/07/2011
No heatwave but weather set to improve


Posted Image
Doom and gloom: Met Eireann predicts better weather is on the way Photograph: Bryan O'Brien/The Irish Times

The good news is that the weather is going to improve at the tail end of a cold and soggy July.

The bad news is that there is no heatwave on the way despite some long-range forecasts that suggested such an outcome was possible by the middle of next week.

Met Eireann admitted that it got its forecast wrong for Dublin yesterday. Instead of isolated showers, a day-long deluge ensued.

Forecaster Harm Luijkx said there was a north-easterly flow with a long track over the Irish Sea which was difficult to predict. It picked up a lot of moisture and dumped at least 10mms (or almost a half inch of rain) exclusively on the Dublin area.

A similar weather pattern was responsible for a surprise deluge of snow which closed Dublin Airport during the winter freeze.

Last night in Dublin felt like a winter?s night with a near record low for July of 4.7 degrees recorded at Casement Aerodrome with a grass temperature just above freezing.

Dublin recorded a maximum daytime maximum temperature of just 13.7 degrees yesterday while Knock Airport had a maximum of just 11.8 degrees last Sunday.

Fortunately, things have already started to improve. The forecast for the weekend is for tomorrow to be a dry and sunny day everywhere except in the south-west which will see more cloud and drizzle. Temperatures will be between 18 and 20 degrees.

Sunday will be cloudier but dry with temperatures as high as 22 degrees.

Next week is forecast to be ?reasonably good?, according to Mr Luijkx who cautioned that it is only going to be exceptional by the standards of the weather that preceded it.

?Temperatures will be just above normal in the afternoons, but it is not going to be sunny all the time. It is going to be a mix of sunshine and cloudy periods. No large amount of rain is expected. More like a typical Irish summer, I?m afraid.?

Temperatures will be a maximum of between 18 and 21 degrees.

Earlier this week there was indications that temperatures would be as high as 25 degrees by next Wednesday, but that hope has dissipated, according to the latest forecasts.
p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k :( :( :( :( :( ??? ??? ??? p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k -ma-d- -ma-d- -ma-d- -il-l- -il-l- -il-l- -il-l-
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Jessie
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And just to rub salt in the wounds,

The tracking of Tropical storm Cindy seems to have changed over the last 24 hours and is now heading towards Ireland.!

A rose must remain with the sun and the rain or its lovely promise won't come true.
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Audi-Tek
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Jessie
July 22 2011, 11:12 PM
And just to rub salt in the wounds,

The tracking of Tropical storm Cindy seems to have changed over the last 24 hours and is now heading towards Ireland.!

Jessie.....Let me know, when it hits your neck of the woods...so I can bring my deck chair in, before I get blown away...

:( :( :( :( :( ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k
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Tropical Storm Cindy is still holding on as it enters cooler waters. Convection is still present over the center of this low, but in the next couple days, the storm will weaken. It’s heading in the direction of Ireland, but before it gets too close, Cindy will just be a remnant low.
t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e

-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n Think we will be fine Jessie..
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From the Freakonomics blog …
An Algorithm that Can Predict Weather a Year in Advance

In our latest podcast, “The Folly of Prediction,” we poke fun at the whole notion of forecasting … But there is one emerging tool that’s greatly enhancing our ability to predict: algorithms.

One of the first things that comes to mind when people hear the word forecasting is the weather. Over the last few decades, we’ve gotten much better at predicting the weather. But what if through algorithms, we could extend our range of accuracy, and say, predict the weather up to a year in advance? That’d be pretty cool, right? And probably worth a bit of money too.

That’s essentially what the folks at a small company called Weather Trends International are doing. The private firm based in Bethlehem, PA, uses technology first developed in the early 1990s, to project temperature, precipitation and snowfall trends up to a year ahead, all around the world, with more than 80% accuracy. Translation: they gather up tons and tons of data, literally as much historical information on weather around the world as is out there, and then cram it into some 5.5 million lines of proprietary computer code (their algorithm) to spit out weather forecasts up to a year in advance.

http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/09/27/an-algorithm-that-can-predict-weather-a-year-in-advance/
Edited by radiospu, September 29 2011, 12:20 AM.
Science does not deal in absolute proofs. The scientific method depends upon falsification of alternative hypotheses until only one remains.
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Edited by radiospu, September 29 2011, 12:20 AM.
Science does not deal in absolute proofs. The scientific method depends upon falsification of alternative hypotheses until only one remains.
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Sunday, 6 November, 2011


TODAY ... Early fog and mist, some icy sections on rural roads as frost slowly dissipates ... much milder near west coast ... becoming mostly sunny but staying rather chilly especially in some central and northern counties where the inversion holds (warmer air trapped aloft) ... highs thus in a rather large range from 5-8 C inland to 10-13 C coastal. Light winds.

TONIGHT ... Another patchy but rather general frost developing, some lows of -4 to -2 C, but staying milder in cities and coastal areas (2-6 C). Extensive fog patches and some icy sections on roads.

MONDAY ... Sunny east, increasing cloud west, but some patchy dense fog or low cloud persisting ... highs 7-10 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny intervals northeast, drizzle near south coast at times, morning lows -2 to +4 C, afternoon highs 8-11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy, milder, periods of rain or drizzle, lows near 5 C and highs near 12 C.

THURSDAY ... Mostly cloudy, mild, some fog and drizzle or light rain, becoming rather windy (SSE 20-40 mph), lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy, mild, periods of rain ... possibly very windy, but awaiting more model consensus on that ... lows 8-10 C and highs 13-15 C.

OUTLOOK ... It may stay rather mild with a slow trend back to a dry and clearing pattern that will allow overnight lows to fall back towards freezing, but that could take several days beyond this forecast period.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Systems are in slow motion now, so yesterday's outlook about the same as today's. Snow is moving gradually east from SK-MT to wMB-wND, but it is a rather wet snow as temperatures are just below freezing in a moderate northerly. Rather cold to the west of this storm although with little snow on ground, highs near freezing. Central states and western Great Lakes sunny and mild, highs 12-15 C north to 20-25 in the south. Eastern states sunny and cool, sharp frosts at night and highs in the range 7-10 C northeast U.S. to 10-15 C southeast, 15-20 C Florida.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny intervals, cool, highs 6-8 C.
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Monday, 7 November, 2011
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TODAY ... Morning fog or mist should slowly give way to sunshine, but watch out for slippery roads due to lingering frost. Much milder near south and west coasts, slowly warming up elsewhere to reach highs of 8-10 C (12-14 C possible west and south coasts). Winds light to moderate southeast (south further west).

TONIGHT ... A few clear spots should remain over inland east and north, local frosts, but generally a bit milder tonight under increasing cloud, drizzle near south coast later. Lows -2 to +3 C north and east, to 4-7 C south and west.

TUESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, patchy light rain or drizzle, milder. Highs about 10 to 12 C. Winds moderate southeast to south.

WEDNESDAY ... Intervals of moderate rain, 10-15 mms possible, mild. Lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C. Winds SSE 20-40 mph.

THURSDAY ... Mostly cloudy, showery, mild. Breezy from south, lows near 8 and highs 12-15 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy and mild, periods of rain may become heavy in west, winds rising to SSE veering SSW 30-50 mph. Lows near 10 C and highs near 14 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Mild, outbreaks of showery rain, possibly another interval of strong winds, lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Very mild for part of next week, highs may be 15-17 C in many places. Gradual cooling trend after mid-week.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Mostly sunny and a bit milder now in eastern states, highs 12-15 C. Rain spreading northeast from Kansas and Missouri towards western Great Lakes, quite warm to south of this (17-20 C), cold with sleet or snow further north. Western states are quite cold with a weak disturbance moving through Utah and Arizona, highs are only 5-8 C in many places, but 15-20 C in the lower elevations of southern Arizona.
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Tuesday, 8 November, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy and milder ... there could be a few bright or even sunny intervals inland and east coast ... increasing chance of drizzle near south coast later ... winds picking up slightly to reach SE 15-25 mph ... highs about 12-13 C.

TONIGHT ... Intervals of drizzle, light rain and becoming foggy, mild ... lows around 7 C to near 10 C west and south coasts ... winds should remain steady SE 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY ... Periods of rain, mild, 10-15 mms rain potential. Moderate southeast to south winds 20-35 mph. Highs 12-14 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with some brief sunny intervals, mild, showers in places but relatively dry, lows near 10 C and highs near 14 C. Winds SSE 10-20 mph before strengthening again by evening.

FRIDAY ... Windy and mild with rain, heavy at times (potential 15-30 mms) ... lows near 10 C and highs near 14 C ... winds SSE 30-50 mph (higher gusts possible) veering to SSW 35-55 mph near west coast.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, fog or drizzle in some coastal locations, lows near 9 C and highs near 13 C.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy, mild, periods of rain, windy at times. Lows near 10 C and highs near 14 C.

OUTLOOK ... It may become even a degree or two milder during the week before a slow cooling trend as winds turn more southeasterly then back further to east or northeast. Speculation on the forum about very mild weather at times, I can see some potential for 16-18 C but anything higher will take either a strong dose of sunshine or slightly warmer "uppers" than we see on the current charts.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Severe storms have broken out tonight in parts of Oklahoma and nearby states, and these will move through Missouri and Arkansas towards the Ohio and Tennessee valleys by late today. Very mild ahead of this front with highs 15-20 C in many places in the east-central and southeast states. Backing winds (SE to NE) across the Great Lakes will tend to keep it rainy and foggy with highs 7-12 C there. Snow on the north side of this disturbance will spread a cover of 10-20 cms into parts of the western Great Lakes and northern Ontario. Out west, rather cool and cloudy in most places although clearing in parts of Alberta.
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Wednesday, 9 November, 2011
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TODAY ... Mild with outbreaks of rain, generally organized into two bands, one now crossing north Leinster and Ulster, and a second band of showers approaching west Munster. There will be largely dry conditions for a time between the two, for central counties, which can expect rain this afternoon. Amounts will generally be 7-15 mms. Winds SE 20-40 mph rising to about 30-50 mph at times this afternoon, then veering more to SSW and falling back to about 20-40 mph by evening. Highs 13-15 C.

TONIGHT ... A few showers in north and east, then partial clearing spreading from west, mild with winds SSW backing to SSE 15-30 mph by morning, fog patches and some drizzle, lows near 8 C.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, some sunny intervals, slight risk of showers in south, winds moderate southerly until evening when rising to SSE 30-50 mph in the south. Highs 12-15 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy and mild with rain becoming heavy at times, 20-30 mms possible, winds SSE 30-50 mph with some higher gusts, lows near 10 C and highs near 14 C. Overnight the rain will taper off to fog and drizzle with winds veering to SSW 20-40 mph.

SATURDAY ... Foggy in some places then some mild sunny intervals, moderate southeast winds, lows near 7 C and highs 13-16 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, very mild, isolated showers mainly south and west. Winds moderate southeast. Lows near 7 C and highs 14-17 C.

MONDAY ... Continuing mild, mostly cloudy, some drizzle, lows near 8 C and highs near 15 C.

OUTLOOK ... A rather mild southeast flow should continue although the peak of the warm spell should be around Sunday-Monday and temperatures are likely to fall off to about 12-14 C through mid-week and could be back around 10-12 C late in the week (daytime, nights will be in the 3-6 C range with some scattered ground frost at times).

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Eastern states warm and dry, highs about 17-21 C for most ... further west from lower Great Lakes to Gulf of Mexico, outbreaks of rain or thundershowers, highs 15-18 C, rather chilly from west-central Canada south towards Kansas and Oklahoma, dry and cloudy, highs around 5 C on average, and rain on west coast. Severe snow and blowing snow in western Alaska.
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Thursday, 10 November, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy and mild with some brighter or even sunny intervals mainly in eastern counties ... showers moving north across west Munster towards Connacht later, trace to 2 mms for most of these regions ... moderate southeast winds 15-25 mph ... highs 12-14 C.

TONIGHT ... Breezy to windy with rain edging into west Munster and by daybreak into parts of Connacht and east Munster ... 5-10 mms in these regions ... winds SE 30-50 mph by morning ... very mild, lows 9-12 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy with outbreaks of heavy rain, 10-30 mms with heaviest falls south central moving towards east Connacht and west Ulster ... winds SE veering SSW 35-55 mph, some higher gusts possible near coasts ... mild with highs 13-15 C. Overnight, winds diminishing to SW 20-40 mph and rain tapering to drizzle and fog.

SATURDAY ... Morning showers, some persistent drizzle in western counties but eventually brightening to partly cloudy in most places by mid-day, mild, lows near 9 C and highs near 14 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, some warm sunny intervals possible, very mild, moderate southeast winds, can't rule out coastal fog or drizzle but should be an unseasonably warm day in many places ... lows near 8 C and highs 14-18.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, very mild, isolated showers (mainly very light), lows near 8 C and highs near 15 C.

OUTLOOK ... The flow will remain moderate southeast backing slowly to east and perhaps northeast, therefore temperatures will decline gradually, reaching seasonal normals later in the week (highs 9-12 C); nights will generally be cooler than recently but above freezing. Some light frosts are however possible.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The mild spell is being slowly pushed off the eastern seaboard as the Great Lakes low, albeit weakening, forms a trough with the tropical storm (Sean) approaching from the south ... this combination will then move into eastern Canada on Friday and Saturday. New England and parts of eastern Canada will hold on to mild, dry weather today with highs 15-18 C, while sporadic rain will spread through Ontario and New York and southward, although this will be on the light side for most, as temperatures there fall from morning highs near 14 C to afternoon readings near 7 C. Somewhat cooler than normal in most of the United States west of this front with the exception of a few parts of southern Arizona and California getting a warm southeast return flow around a massive, sprawling high over Colorado. This pattern brings cool, dry weather to most of the central U.S. and western Canada, although not exceptionally cold (highs 4-8 C for most, sharp frosts at night), 15-25 C in the far southwest U.S. ... meanwhile, the west coast north of San Fran is showery, nothing very strong for this time of year, while western Alaska digs out from a strong blizzard that saw winds as strong as 80 mph in places yesterday ... the trend there is to much colder weather building east from Siberia, the first onslaught of full winter, which so far has stayed away from almost all populated areas of Canada making for a prolonged fall season even in the northern parts of the prairies.
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Friday, 11 November, 2011
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TODAY ... Moderate to heavy rain spreading gradually north but heavier from central Munster north towards east Galway/Mayo and west Ulster. Before rain arrives, mostly cloudy with rising southeast winds ... during the rain, winds SE 30-50 mph ... partial clearing will follow into west Munster and some isolated weak thundershowers could develop by afternoon there ... rainfall amounts today 15-30 mms, highs 13-15 C. Winds veering more to SSW after the rain, and dropping off to 20-40 mph.

TONIGHT ... Rain becoming showery then tapering off to drizzle, fog. Mild. Lows near 10 C. Winds SSW 15-30 mph.

SATURDAY ... Mostly cloudy with some brighter intervals, drizzle or light rain ending for a while then redeveloping late in the day with 3-7 mms on average, moderate southerly winds and highs near 14 C.

SUNDAY ... Showers ending except in parts of Ulster, brighter with some sunny intervals inland southeast, very mild or warm with lows near 9 C and highs near 16 C but possibly as high as 18 C around Kildare, Carlow and Laois. Isolated showers mainly west and north. Moderate SE winds.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, possible showers near south coast spreading into western counties later, dry further east, mild or very mild, lows near 9 C and highs near 16 C. Moderate SE winds.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY ... A gradual cooling trend with mostly cloudy skies, some brighter intervals and occasionally sunny east and north, drizzle at times near south coast, winds southeast backing to east, 10-20 mph. Daytime highs will sag slowly from about 14 to about 10 C. Rather mild at night for time of year, lows 3-7 C, but chance of ground frost anywhere that happens to clear.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Tropical storm Sean has moved past Bermuda and will rapidly accelerate north to become merged into an elongated north-south frontal trough in eastern Canada. The remnants of the tropical storm will be pulled across Newfoundland in a general southerly gale with heavy rainfalls to 100 mms in places. Further west, the northeast states and Quebec, Ontario are dry and cloudy except for isolated showers. Temperatures will be near 17 C in parts of far eastern Canada but 10-12 C further west. Into the central U.S. a milder southwest flow is developing with some chinook warming in the western plains and prairies. Highs will be well into the teens. Coastal BC and parts of the Pacific northwest will see increasing cloud followed by rain. But it is warm and dry in the desert southwest where highs could reach 25 C in places in an easterly "Santa Ana breeze."
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Saturday, 12 November, 2011
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TODAY ... Cloudy with some bright or sunny intervals more frequent in the east, with a few remnant light showers at times in the west, becoming more of a steady light rain by evening (potential 3-6 mms). Very mild with moderate SSE winds 15-25 mph, highs 13-15 C.

TONIGHT ... Occasional light rain, mostly across central to western counties spreading to northern counties later, 3-6 mms, mild in south to southeast winds, lows 8-10 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, northern showers dying out, very mild or even warm in the southeast, highs 15-18 C in southeast breezes 15-25 mph.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy east to overcast west, very mild, some outbreaks of light rain later, winds continuing moderate SE and temperatures between 10 and 14 C.

TUESDAY ... Some sunny intervals, more cloud south and west with risk of showers, not quite as mild, winds ESE 10-20 mph, lows near 6 C and highs near 12 C.

OUTLOOK ... A slow-moving trough will push back from the west and end the very mild, largely dry spell in all areas, bringing outbreaks of rain that could become heavy by about Thursday. Temperatures will continue rather mild but closer to seasonal normals, highs of 9-12 C. Models diverge past next weekend but there appears to be some chance of a turn to stormy weather if the European model wins the contest.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Strong southerly winds and rain across Newfoundland with highs 14-17 C, but turning colder in westerly winds further west, with a secondary disturbance tracking southeast across the Great Lakes bringing chilly showers followed by sleety flurries there, highs no better than 7-9 C. To the south, a seasonably mild cloudy westerly flow across most of the eastern states away from the Great Lakes. Mild in central regions as far north as the central Canadian prairie provinces, well above freezing to that frontal zone, but below freezing to the north in a light to moderate northeast cloudy flow ahead of arctic high pressure well to the north. Showery (snow in mountains) and cool near west coast, and another big storm heading into Alaska, this one making more progress east (the last one is actually now heading due west to the north of Siberia). It continues warm and dry in most of the southwest states.
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