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Summer 2011 Outlook
Topic Started: April 27 2011, 11:16 AM (1,559 Views)
Mark (IWO)
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Just days ahead of Irish Weather Online’s Summer 2011 Outlook being issued, a leading US-based weather service is predicting that the opening two months of the summer will be warmer than average across Ireland and UK before cooler and less settled weather takes hold.

WSI (Weather Services International) says it expects a reoccurrence of the heavy rainfall experienced in the latter part of the last three summers.

According to WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford: “After another cold winter, spring has been unusually mild, so far. Temperatures for the approaching period (May-July) to average lower than normal across northern Sweden and Finland, with higher-than-normal temperatures elsewhere, especially in Southeastern Europe.

He continued: “The warm April pattern has been an annual occurrence during the past few years, independent of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or any other of the typical drivers. However, as we head into May the impacts of a very strong and unusually late warming in the polar stratosphere will begin to manifest themselves in Europe, first by lower temperatures in extreme eastern Europe.

“By June, as the negative phase of the NAO becomes more established, lower-than-normal temperatures will be common across the Nordic regions, as early summer heat is predominant across the southern half of the mainland”, Dr. Crawford added.

He said that by July, the pattern of recent summers will “likely settle in again”, with cool and wet conditions across the British Isles and significant summer heat across Southeastern Europe.

“The most significant late summer rainfall will occur from the UK into the hydrological basins of Scandinavia, as has been the case for the last few years”, Mr. Crawford concluded.

Posted Image

In May, WSI predicts regional temperature anomalies as follows:
Nordic Region* – Cooler than normal Finland, warm Sweden/Norway
UK – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland* – Warmer than normal, except Poland
Southern Mainland* – Warmer than normal, except Southeast

June:
Nordic Region – Cooler than normal
UK – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

July:
Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
UK – Cooler than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except northern France & Benelux
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

WSI is a member company of the Weather Channel Companies (TWCC), which also features the Weather Channel, Weather Channel Interactive and Enterprise Electronics Company (EEC).

Irish Weather Online’s Summer 2011 Outlook will be issued in the coming days.
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
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Mark (IWO)
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The Summer 2011 Outlook has been prepared by Irish Weather Online forecaster Peter O’Donnell, a Canada-based climatologist who specialises in providing long range weather forecasts for Ireland and the United Kingdom.

This is Peter’s second seasonal outlook for Irish Weather Online ( http://www.irishweatheronline.com/news/winter-2010-2011-weather-forecast-for-ireland/87.html Winter forecast, issued on 15 November 2010).

SUMMER 2011 OUTLOOK: In general, expect a reasonably warm and dry to near normal summer (this would apply to the months June to September, and also to "astronomical summer" 21 June to 21 Sept).

There will be intervals of very warm, dry weather at times, separated by periods that are close to normal in temperature with more frequent rainfall. It is not expected to become oppressively warm or hot for long periods, but there could be a few hot days. The trend from June to August is likely to be a drying trend.

Now, as the current conditions are quite dry in the north especially, what this means is that May will bring somewhat more normal rainfalls and so will June, so this current drought should ease although not likely totally erased. Then a somewhat drier trend will return, and this applies to north and south. This dry trend is likely to continue into September.

JUNE
Temps 0.5C to 1C above average
Near normal rainfall

JULY
Temps 0C to 0.5c above average
80-100% normal rainfall

AUGUST
0.7C to 1.4C above average
60-80% of normal rainfall

August trend expected to continue in September.

This appears likely to be another rather active tropical storm season in the North Atlantic so there is likely a higher than random chance of a brush with one remnant storm system most likely in September or October.

While these comments are meant to be quite general, local storms can always develop within this pattern and be quite notable for small areas. The pattern I foresee for this summer is not particularly "potent" for severe storm development but a long-range forecast really cannot hope to predict that sort of detail months in advance.

Although I don't expect a major heat wave like that experienced in August 2003 or July 2006, this summer does show a little higher than average on a heat wave index from analogues, so I would not want to rule out that chance, but would rate it as about one in five (random might be more like one in ten).

Anyone with comments or questions in relation to my forecast may submit them on the comments section of this page or alternatively via email to podonnell@irishweatheronline.com .
Edited by Mark (IWO), May 2 2011, 10:37 AM.
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
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Mark (IWO)
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OUTLOOK ... Gradual improvement with a warm spell developing later next week on southeast winds. Highs could be back into the low 20s within a week of this weekend. Staying a little cooler at night.
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radiospu
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If this pattern continues, it will be a bit of warm summer in southern Britain with occasional imported thunder and relatively normal sunhine and showers summer for most of the UK.

From your favourite met off (UK)
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Received the following comment via our website from Anne today. An interesting one! "Just wanted to report vast numbers of what appear to be jellyfish eggs washed up on Banna Beach. They have gradually been become more prolific over the last week but today the beach was black with them. I know from previous summers this is a sign of warm weather coming."
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Mark (IWO)
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WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Turning somewhat warmer but remaining unsettled in the north of the country. Sunny intervals further south. Winds SW backing to southerly later. Highs near 17 C on Saturday and possibly 19-20 C by Sunday. This warmer spell could last for a while at least in the south and east. The prospects further north and west are less certain but even there an improved weather picture seems likely.
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Mark (IWO)
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MONDAY … Periods of rain turning to squally showers. Moderate to strong SW winds developing. Gusts to 65 mph possible in Connacht, 55 mph elsewhere. Lows of about 10 C and highs near 13 C.

TUESDAY … Continued rather windy and showery with winds WSW 20-40 mph, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.

OUTLOOK … Although somewhat uncertain with a bit of spread in model guidance, the trend will definitely be improving towards the end of the week. Partly cloudy conditions likely mid-week with a risk of isolated inland frost around Wed 25th. Sunny conditions later in the week, and rising temperatures for daytime hours at least. Highs near 16 C mid-week to 20 C or perhaps a bit higher by the end of the week and the weekend of 28th-29th May. Some signs of a fairly long spell of settled weather although it could briefly turn a bit cooler around Monday 30th.
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jen
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hi mark i have a birthday party for bank holiday weekend the 6th whats the weather like then ;)thanks mark
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Mark (IWO)
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dry at present in slack winds Jen. Rain pushing in by nightfall though

This will be subject to change so remind me again in a day or two.
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radiospu
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What do you think, Mark?
The Summer - an alternative outlook!

http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=7719&linkbox=true&position=1

BRITAIN [and Ireland, I presume] could be facing the hottest summer ever with temperatures hitting 101F, forecasters said last night.

Blistering heat similar to 2003 – the warmest summer for five centuries – is “a real possibility”.

But experts are warning of a lack of rain. While temperatures of 101.F (38.5C) will be welcomed by sun lovers, farmers are desperate after the driest spring on record.

Forecasters say there is no significant rain on the horizon and in June

and July, temperatures are potentially going to be consistently high. As high pressure sets in next month, bringing prolonged spells of clear skies and unbroken sunshine, the heat is likely to rise to 95F.

Paul Michaelwhite, of online forecasters Netweather, said: “It is not beyond that realms of possibility that we could see temperatures pushing up to the record 101.3F – and temperatures of 95F are certainly not out of the question.”

Updated with comments by Piers Corbyn
And for the full report go to: http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/247955
Edited by radiospu, May 25 2011, 01:10 AM.
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But experts are warning of a lack of rain. While temperatures of 101.F (38.5C) will be welcomed by sun lovers, farmers are desperate after the driest spring on record. .....

-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n The only thing now,to think about is, what factor suncream do we you use.?? :) :) :) :) :) h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e
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Glad you're taking it so seriously, Prince Audi. h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e
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Mark (IWO)
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OUTLOOK … A few rather cool and breezy days, with a few showers, near the end of the month but June starting to look promising again as models are now beginning to feature strong high pressure near the Azores building north of Ireland. There could be some warmer easterly type flows, but also intervals that are cooler from north to northeast, into first half of June with this strong signal developing. I think it bodes well for the summer, gradually improving relative to normal.
http://www.irishweatheronline.com/forecast/long-range-weather-forecast-for-ireland-25th-may/1120.html
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Mark (IWO)
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RE: Slane

We expect any showers to fizzle out by midday. Winds will be fresh W-WNW. Feeling cool
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Mark (IWO)
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We agree that May has been one of the most forgettable months in terms of weather. January is the windiest month of the year on average but May has surely beaten all records (we will verify this). It's looking increasingly likely that we are heading towards a settled spell of weather. It will be generally sunny and warmer in early June. Our summer forecast (Jun-Aug) suggests a warming and less rain - http://www.irishweatheronline.com/forecast/summer-2011-weather-outlook/13390.html. Featured weather chart for next Friday shows high pressure over us. This does not mean we will be basking in sunshine but it does mean that winds will FINALLY die down and drier weather will develop. Temperatures will also rise to seasonal or above seasonal values.
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Hey guys. Your help here would be much much appreciated. I am organising an outdoor festival for 11th June in the midlands of Ireland. We have potential provisions in place if rain is likely (ponchos and very large marquee ready to be deployed!!). However these will somewhat take away from the event and reduce the atmosphere at the gig a bit. I no it’s a long shot but your weather advice for the weekend of June 10th / 11th would be great. We are ideally hoping for dry, warm weather but the key is that it stays dry.Thanks.
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Hi there, we will take a look at the long range charts and revert asap.
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Brilliant - thanks.
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Fergal (IWO)
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It would appear at this stage that high pressure will be the dominant feature starting mid next week, and possibly lasting right through the following weekend, i.e. past the 11th. The chart below is for 1pm on the 11th, and shows the high centred near Ireland, with a slight easterly breeze over the country. Warm temperatures at upper levels means shower activity will be surpressed, so AT THIS STAGE it would appear that you may not need that marquee!

The disclaimer in all this is that it's a very long way away, and much can happen in between to change this forecast - a slight shift in the position of the high, for instance. So for the moment, yes it looks very nice, but keep checking for updates.

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Edited by Fergal (IWO), May 26 2011, 10:09 PM.
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Great stuff Fergal…that’s been really useful and helpful. I understand its some time away and I don’t want to get our hopes up but it’s certainly a step in the right direction :) ….will definitely be keeping a close eye out here on the forum and your website for anything and everything around the 11th. Thanks again.
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Mark (IWO)
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OUTLOOK WED 1st to MON 6th ... Models continue to show this period as a warm, dry spell, with plenty of sunshine and highs 18-22 C in light easterly winds. It could possibly reach 24 C in the west given this set-up. The East coast might have some local sea breezes. Despite a few false dawns with this warm spell, this signal appears too strong to be a false start ... although details may change. The warm spell could last into mid-week before a cooler turn to northerly winds around the following weekend (this is very preliminary if you have interests in that weekend).
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Pressure chart for next Friday. High pressure centred over Ireland. No wind, warm temps http://twitpic.com/535nm5
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ECM model (Meteociel) shows high pressure (calm and warm conditions) centred over Ireland next Friday http://twitpic.com/53nmhc
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The June Bank Holiday Weekend is looking dry & settled at this stage.Some morning fog slow to clear in places. But summer is on the way
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radiospu
May 25 2011, 01:06 AM
What do you think, Mark?
The Summer - an alternative outlook!

http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=7719&linkbox=true&position=1

BRITAIN [and Ireland, I presume] could be facing the hottest summer ever with temperatures hitting 101F, forecasters said last night.

Blistering heat similar to 2003 – the warmest summer for five centuries – is “a real possibility”.

But experts are warning of a lack of rain. While temperatures of 101.F (38.5C) will be welcomed by sun lovers, farmers are desperate after the driest spring on record.

Forecasters say there is no significant rain on the horizon and in June

and July, temperatures are potentially going to be consistently high. As high pressure sets in next month, bringing prolonged spells of clear skies and unbroken sunshine, the heat is likely to rise to 95F.

Paul Michaelwhite, of online forecasters Netweather, said: “It is not beyond that realms of possibility that we could see temperatures pushing up to the record 101.3F – and temperatures of 95F are certainly not out of the question.”

Updated with comments by Piers Corbyn
And for the full report go to: http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/247955
In parts of England it could very well happen David.

Here is th outlook for Ireland as far as we can see it though.

Ps....just spotted your post now so sorry for delay

http://www.irishweatheronline.com/news/general-news/brighter-warmer-weather-on-the-way/16354.html
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Hey, I have being keeping a close eye on updates here....I mentioned in an earlier post but just wondering if you have any details for Saturday all day and early Sunday morning in the midlands. From what I see it aint looking good.... ??? ???
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