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Are We Set For A Long, Cold Winter?
Topic Started: September 26 2011, 10:21 PM (7,111 Views)
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ARE WE SET FOR A LONG, COLD WINTER?

Friday September 23,2011



THE leaves haven’t yet fallen from the trees and the forecasters are already predicting a bleak start to winter.

After one last sunshine bonanza at the end of next week, when the mercury is set to nudge the mid-20Cs, it will be time to batten down the hatches. According to several forecasters, if you thought last year was bad you ain’t seen nothing yet. Snow by the end of October is just one of the gloomy predictions unveiled in the latest batch of attentiongrabbing long-range forecasts.

The weather is now big business, worth an estimated £500million to companies now rivalling the Met Office and playing a key role in the economy. There’s huge pressure to gaze into the future, allowing us all to make plans. In fact, some companies are now producing forecasts for the next nine months, although stressing they can only be a guide. With the British weather notoriously fickle and prone to change over a matter of hours, how on earth can the forecasters look so far ahead?

It’s done by studying a complex mix of factors, including previous conditions at any given time of year. Even now the temperature of the sea surface in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean will have an impact on the British winter to come. If it falls lower than normal for several months, the phenomenon is known as La Niña. The most dramatic effects are seen nearby but La Niña can have an impact on weather thousands of miles away. It influences the jet stream, an intense upper air current that helps the creation of the low pressure fronts which sweep across Britain from the Atlantic, normally bringing wet, mild weather.
La Niña, which typically happens only every three to five years, is in force at the moment and is thought by some experts to be a significant factor in predicting cold winters. However it’s not the only one, making the science of long-range forecasting inexact.

It’s also possible to study conditions in the upper atmosphere to try to predict the likelihood of dominant high pressure zones sitting to the north of the UK during the start of the winter. If this happens mild, wet air from the south-west is blocked and there’s more chance of freezing weather and snow. Another factor is the amount of ice in the Arctic and sea temperatures closer to home.

Ian Currie, a Fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society, says: “All the world’s weather systems are connected. What is going on now in the Pacific can have repercussions later all round the world.”
He says forecasters are also looking for patterns, aided by information from weather stations and satellites.

“In the past five years patterns have emerged of very cold conditions in December, earlier than would normally be expected,” adds Mr Currie. “So it’s not surprising to see these forecasts.”

Paul Michaelwaite, of NetWeather, which correctly predicted last year’s harsh winter and believes we are in for more of the same, says: “The technology which allows us to forecast long-range weather is becoming more sophisticated.

“However, because so many different factors influence the British weather the problem is deciding how much weight to give each. The Holy Grail is to be able to predict several months ahead with 90 per cent accuracy.

“Anyone able to do that would seize a huge chunk of the market.”

For now, although several of the main forecasters appear to concur that it’s going to be colder than normal, there’s often disagreement.

That creates a headache for local councils, airports, supermarkets and motoring organisations. Gavin Hill-Smith of the AA, which dealt with a record 28,000 calls on December 20 last year, says: “We are preparing for the worst but hoping for the best. Every degree the temperature falls in winter increases the number of breakdowns. We do monitor long-range forecasts but most of our weather-related planning is done a week in advance.”

After last year’s fi asco when the nation ground to a halt in November and December, a Government committee has called for more reliance on long-range forecasts and has asked for an extra £10million for improvements to the Met Offi ce.

However, don’t expect a longrange forecast from the Met, which was stung by the reaction to its disastrous “barbecue summer” prediction two years ago. Its three-month outlook is no longer issued to the public, although it does go to government. A £33million supercomputer does the number-crunching.

Spokesman Dave Britton, who declined to comment on the prospects for winter, says: “Because we are a small island, sitting on the edge of a large ocean and a large continent the weather is diffi cult to predict. The public told us that long-range forecasts were not useful. They can never be specifi c.”

WHAT THE FORECASTERS SAY:

Paul Michaelwaite, of NetWeather, is forecasting a cold start to winter based on two computer models.

“October and November will both see below average temperatures. In November we expect the average to be at least one degree colder than usual. We are forecasting an early start to winter and a similar pattern to last year. We don’t claim to be 100 per cent accurate but our longrange forecasts two to three months ahead are pretty reliable and for one month ahead we are usually close to the mark.”

JAMES MADDEN, a forecaster at Exacta Weather which uses analysis of solar activity to provide free longrange forecasts, is already warning of a cold snap.

“As we head towards winter I expect to see the fi rst signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or November in certain parts of the UK. I expect December, January and February to experience below-average temperatures, with the heaviest snowfalls occurring within the timeframe of November to January across many parts of the UK.”

PIERS CORBYN, of WeatherAction, uses historical weather patterns and solar observations to produce long-range forecasts, which he claims are the most accurate of all.

“Forecasts of a cold and dry October will fail. It will be generally wet and mild with divisions across the UK and two dangerous storm periods. Predictions of a cold autumn and winter is baseless hype from a gaggle of wannabes.”

WEATHER SERVICES INTERNATIONAL, a US company, was spot on with last year’s freeze and forecaster Dan Leonard says: “It will be up to one degree below average in the UK for October and November, cooling to one to two degrees below average in December.”

THEWEATHEROUTLOOK, another forecaster, also warns that we should prepare early for winter.

“October may bring a spell of drier and warmer weather before a wet and cold November with a wintry sting rounding off the autumn.”

MICHAEL DUKES, forecast manager for Meteogroup, Europe’s largest private weather company, says: “There’s a higher probability of colder and more snowy weather in the next three months than normal.”

MARK VOGAN, a lorry driver from Lennoxtown, Dunbartonshire, is an amateur forecaster who writes a weather blog: “This year will continue the cycle of colder and snowier than normal winters for the UK. 2011-12 may be one of the worst overall UK winters in the past 100 years with the past two a mere curtain raiser. The worst of the weather will hit just after the New Year.”

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Very interesting. I don't claim to know anything about forecasting, but it really does seem very hit and miss this far out. Based on the fact that the majority are predicting around the same as last year I'll be prepared....!
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Coldfront ,Agree thats its a wee bit early, to be forecasting what is going to happen this Winter. It seems to me, that for every forecaster that has forecasted a very cold Winter ,one can find a similar amount of forecasters, who say a mild Winter this time around.I guess, one will wont know for sure, whats on offer, till at least we are in Nov.


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Summer goes out on a high, but warnings of early snowfall


Posted Image .
FUN IN THE SUN: Ellie Hancock from Newmachar enjoys an ice cream at Aberdeen beach. Kevin Emslie


The north-east basked in a late burst of summer yesterday with more soaring temperatures predicted.

But forecasters warned not to put away the winter woollies, as snow is just around the corner.

Blue skies and high temperatures are expected in the region until Friday.

Highs of 23C are due to hit Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire tomorrow – as warm as holiday hotspots like Crete and Istanbul.

For the full story, pick up a copy of today’s Press and Journal ..
By Ashleigh Barbour and Jane Candlish

Published: 27/09/2011
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Hottest end to September since 1895! Temperature soars to 28C (but one city rolls out the GRITTING LORRIES for winter)

Plymouth council has the fleet for de-icing on standby from Saturday


Posted Image
Skimpy in September: Thanks to the unfeasibly warm weather, where temperatures have reached 28C, bikinis (like Daniella's) are finally getting the outing that they missed in July


BUT WINTER'S ON ITS WAY... FOR SOME AT LEAST

The country may well be basking in a glorious Indian summer but Plymouth City Council will have its gritting lorries at the ready from this weekend.

Despite record-breaking temperatures, authorities said that, because of the last two harsh winters, its seven gritters will be on standby for the next six months from Saturday.

Posted Image

It is also planning a public road show to dole out 'information about how to travel safely when there is ice or snow on the roads'.

Heathrow has also unveiled today its upgraded winter plans following chaos at the airport last Christmas.

It has trebled the number of snow vehicles, made more staff available to clear snow and agreed with airlines and air traffic control a better system for managing cancellations due to bad weather.

So far BAA has committed to investing £32.4 million in the new measures.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2042838/UK-s-hottest-end-September-1895-Temperature-soars-28C.html#ixzz1ZNmvE9Bw







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Clare Nasir

Broadcaster, Writer and Meteorologist

Britain's Forecast Big Freeze - Should you be Worried?
Posted: 22/9/11 00:00 GMT


A cold shiver ran down my spine earlier this week when I read, "Britain faces an early big freeze".

It's a brave forecaster who sticks their neck out and gives such detail on a span of three months ahead. Long range forecaster James Madden from Exacta Weather though has done just that. He expects "December, January and February to experience below average temperatures, with the heaviest snowfalls occurring within the time frame of November to January across many parts of the UK". So kids, dust off the sledges and dads, best to order a tonne of grit for the drive now just to be on the safe side...

The forecast is based on a number of factors that include a spell of quiet solar activity (that allows the atmosphere to cool), renewed volcanic eruptions in Iceland (Eyjafjallajokull and Grimsvotn) and indications of a neutral ENSO or La Nina (large scale wind and ocean currents over the southern Pacific that effect weather patterns across the globe). As a forecaster its fascinating stuff - on one level how the global weather is so interconnected, and on another, how far we have come in understanding natural phenomena and how it relates to future weather events.

The dynamics of the atmosphere relies on a fine balance of numerous factors and is highly sensitive to slight perturbations. This is one reason why seasonal trends are so difficult to get right. The best computer models can give a huge variation of predictions, and throughout the season the detail is continually revised.

Another is that seasonal forecasts can be open to a lot of interpretation.

When in the spring of 2009 the UK's Meteorological Office forecast 'higher than average temperatures' for the months of June, July and August, it was eagerly anticipated as the forthcoming 'barbeque summer' - oh, how it rained (although at least it was warm rain).

I suspect that this is one of the reasons why the Met Office has now stopped releasing their seasonal forecasts to the press and public.

I am not saying that the forecast published earlier this week is correct or not but broad brush long range forecasts will normally result in some detail being right somewhere in the country.

So what can we expect for the near future? Well dominant south-westerly winds will keep the rest of September mild, perhaps even warm in the southeast, with the risk of more rain, mainly in the west. Towards the end of the month there is a hint of some drier, brighter weather for everyone.

Come October there is good agreement amongst many forecasting units that many nights will be cold and frosty, but it's likely to be drier than average - with some lovely sunshine by day.

As for the coming winter - the 'big freeze' forecast has been the only one issued so far, so let's just say for now, forewarned is forearmed, and in a country where our airports grind to a halt when there's a dusting of snow, being prepared is not such a bad thing.
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Britain's big freeze to start with 'snow in October'
By Mirror.co.uk 20/09/2011


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Experts have warned Brits to prepare for another big freeze this year

BRITS have been warned of another big freeze this winter – with snow falling as early as October.

The premature frost, with below average temperatures over the next few months, was predicted by forecasters Exacta Weather.

Expert James Madden said on its website: “As we head towards winter, I expect to see the first signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or November in certain parts of the UK.
“I expect December, January, and February to experience below-average temperatures, with the heaviest snowfalls occurring within the time frame of November to ­January across many parts of the UK.”

Britain was thrown into chaos as freezing conditions and heavy snowfalls paralysed transport networks and brought airports grinding to a halt.in the run up to Christmas.

Parts of the UK saw up to 30 inches of snow. Temperatures plunged to -19C in some areas.

The cold snap is thought to have cost the economy up to ­£1.2billion a day, with a total loss of £13billion.

The Met Office said the beginning of October would see colder-than-average nights bringing the chance of overnight frosts. The Midlands and the South-east would bear the brunt of the cold snap.

Yesterday, the US firm that predicted last year’s Arctic snap as well as the previous big freeze of 2009-2010 also warned that we might be in for another cold spell.

Weather Services International said October, November and December would see temperatures around two degrees lower than average.




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UK weather defies prediction, say forecasters

Jet streams and ocean currents ensure that British weather is some of the most changeable on Earth


It has been a year that has seen weather patterns turned upside down. In 2011, Britain had one of the finest springs on record. This was followed by one of our worst-ever summers. And the Met Office says there is more to come.

At least, that is the message from forecasters and meteorologists who are studying the twists and turns of the British weather. The strange patterns of rain, wind and sunshine that have swept the nation reveal a fundamental truth, they have found. The UK is one of the most erratic, changeable places on Earth when it comes to weather. Inverted patterns of rain, sun and wind are simple facts of life and we had better get used to them.

In 2009, somewhat shamefacedly, the Met Office decided to withdraw its seasonal forecasting service, amid recriminations over baking summers that had mysteriously failed to materialise. But there are good reasons why British weather forecasters often get it wrong. "We are a small island, in a temperate climate, at a high latitude with one of the world's biggest oceans on one side of us, and a huge continent on the other," said Helen Chivers, a forecaster at the Met Office. "The combination makes it very difficult to predict weather here. We can do it in the short term but not over long periods, unlike other parts of the world. For example, in the United States the weather is far easier to forecast because the country forms part of a very large landmass."

This point was backed by Alan Thorpe, director of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. "In some parts of the tropics, you can forecast weather up to four weeks away, but not in the UK. The best you can hope for is about five days to a week."

A key problem facing forecasters in Britain is the jet streams: these are narrow ribbons of fast-flowing air that are found at altitudes of around 35,000ft. They play a key role in bringing weather systems to Britain from America across the Atlantic. "The problem is that jet streams do not flow in straight lines. They can often coil like snakes – and that is what happened at the beginning of this year," said Chivers. "They coiled above Britain in March, April and the first half of May and trapped a region of high pressure over the country. That brought fine weather to the country for those months."

Then the jet streams straightened out and pushed rainy weather across the Atlantic – dumping it on Britain. "The result was a bad summer," said Chivers. "However, from what we can see at present the prospects look better for September, if that is a consolation."

A further factor bedevilling UK forecasts has been uncovered by scientists based at the National Oceanographic Centre in Southampton. Since 2004 they have been monitoring the flow and temperature of ocean currents as they pass through sensors arranged in rows and at different depths across the Atlantic Ocean at latitude 26 degrees north. The project is known as Rapid.

"Essentially warm water flows north near the surface of the Atlantic and goes up the eastern coast of America. Then it crosses the ocean to sweep over western Britain before it cools and sinks and then flows south deep down in the Atlantic," said oceanographer Dr Valbourg Byfield. "We experience this as the Gulf Stream and it is a key influence on our climate."

Rapid was set up to determine if freezing water, from icecaps that are melting in response to climate change, had started to influence the northern flow of the Gulf Stream. In other words, scientists wanted to know if global warming was going to disrupt the current and cool our climate. However, they have had no chance to do that yet. "We have found that the flow of warm water in the Atlantic fluctuates massively over very short periods," said Byfield. "Within a couple of weeks, the flow can double. Then a few weeks later it can virtually disappear.

"This rapid fluctuation makes it very difficult to determine a long-term picture, though we hope when we have finished taking measurements in 2014 that we will have a better idea."

The crucial point about the discovery of these intense short-term fluctuations is that they add another confusing variable to the equations used by meteorologists to try to forecast British weather, a point backed by Thorpe. "Every summer, every year, we get different weather and we always want to know what factors were responsible. But you have to accept that we are in the centre of a very variable system. Fluctuations happen all the time. We are trying to understand them, but that will take time." Or as Mark Twain said: "Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get."

Britons may therefore curse their weather for its frequently bizarre swings but we should consider the alternatives. For example, summers and winters in New York are very predictable – and very unpleasant. The former are searingly hot to the extent that visitors have to dart from store to store to make the most of air conditioning. Then, in winter, the freezing cold forces visitors to dart from store to store to enjoy their heating.

Our weather may be less predictable, but is bearable for most of the year.


-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n Me thinks, that one shouldnt trust long range forecasts too much.
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Winter 2011/12
Preliminary Weather Forecast Update 3

Issued on: 7th September 2011 ....... http://ukweather.wordpress.com/winter-201011/
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You can bask in Sheffield’s sunny weather into next week - but get ready for a snowy winter


Published on Thursday 29 September 2011 08:49

SHEFFIELD is basking in an Indian summer expected to continue into next week – but as well as enjoying the welcome heat, city residents are being urged to plan ahead for a return of the cold and snowy weather this winter.

Temperatures could hit a sizzling 27C tomorrow and Saturday, up to 11 degrees above average for the time of year, but a weather expert has warned that thermometers will drop in mid-October, meaning the chilly conditions could soon develop again.

Jim Dale, a senior risk meteorologist at forecasters British Weather Services, said Sheffielders should ‘plan ahead for the worst’ by stocking up on rock salt to grit icy paths and roads, as well as checking their cars are prepared for the winter.

He said the cold weather is ‘likely’ to return, but added: “We’re not saying there’ll be a repeat of January 2010 or December 2010. What we are saying is that we’ve not really got out of the situation that brought us those two events – a very long, Atlantic-type summer, with weather coming from the west rather than the east. People should plan ahead for the worst.”

Jim said: “Once out of the Indian summer you really are bearing down on winter. In the sunshine of this week, you’ve got time to go and buy a bag of salt. It’ll probably be cheaper, you can get it in the garage ready to spread it around.

“You should also make sure your car has got the right equipment, such as blankets, food and water, a torch and a spade, and prepare the garden by stowing away pot plants.

“It’s about preparing and planning. We think about things at the last second, but they’re only issues cities around the world that experience severe weather every year have to deal with.”

Jim said the cycle of recent freezing winters is down to a series of complex global oceanic and meteorological patterns.

“We’re still in that block where the threat is there. Nothing’s changed as far as that is concerned,” he added.

The hot weather is being caused by a high pressure front bringing in southerly winds from Africa, which is set to dictate the weather for at least the next week.

Jim said: “By Friday and Saturday, Sheffield might be seeing 26 or 27C, which is nine to 11 degrees above average. It’s fairly exceptional. The last time it was like this was 2006. If the temperatures were below average we’d be in blizzards and worse. Last December the deviation from the seasonal average was five degrees lower than it should have been.”

The poor summer weather was made worse in Sheffield by the city’s location next to the Pennines, which meant the region got more rainfall.

Jim said: “We had a very good April and a poor summer, but now we’ve got an Indian summer and I think this will last more than a week. The first half of October looks pretty favourable to say the least.”


Edited by Audi-Tek, September 30 2011, 05:50 PM.
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Weather set to turn for the worst in parts of UK

Sep 29 2011

by Mark Johnson, Crosby Herald


CROSBY could be set for colder weather with an outside chance of snow, long-range forecasters have predicted.

Temperatures have been tipped to plummet to below average over the next three months.

Long-range predictions state the white stuff could fall on Britain as early as October, according to Exacta Weather.

An internet state- ment from one of the organisation’s long- range forecasters reads: “As we head towards winter, I expect to see the first signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or November in certain parts of the UK.”
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Enjoy heatwave while it lasts..because snow is coming.
Published Date:
29 September 2011


The mercury hit 24C in Edinburgh and 25C in East Lothian yesterday as a rare autumn heatwave hit the region, filling parks and gardens across the city. But forecasters have warned it will not last - with heavy rain and plummeting temperatures by the weekend . . . and snow showers within weeks.

Local authorities are preparing winter weather contingencies early, with snow predicted for October.

Forecasters have said the coming sudden change in temperature - from 25C to single digits within a week - is among the most dramatic ever seen and only occurs on a handful of occasions each century.

Leon Brown, operations director of Weather Services International, told the Evening News that frost could arrive as early as next week.

He said: "It's quite unusual to get such high temperatures followed by low ones. If you go back around the last 100 years, you might find two or three events within a single week.

"In the next week there's a probability - about 50/50 - that it may be cold enough for snow in the Grampians, and frost in East Lothian."

He added: "It's very warm at the moment but it'll cool off over the next few days and turn a lot cooler towards the end of next week. We are expecting this winter to be another cold one, although not as extreme as the last two years, and we expect that to kick in as we go through October.

"In October itself there may well be some shorter cold snaps and there could well be a few snow showers in Edinburgh and the Lothians towards the end of the month."

He added: "I don't know the record for the Edinburgh and Lothian area but it's very close to it at around the 25C mark. It's very unusual to get those temperatures this time of year."

http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/Enjoy-heatwave-while-it-lastsbecause.6844643.jp
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Ireland to face Big Freeze for Winter 2010/2011 ??


Ireland Faces Big Freeze For Winter 2010-11



Forecasters are predicting another Big Freeze this coming winter.

Positive Weather Solutions, the long range forecasting agency which predicted the last Big Freeze as well as the wet Summer in 2009, say January and February will bring snowfall across much of Ireland and the UK. PWS also say that a White Christmas is likely in some parts.

Senior forecaster Jonathan Powell said: “It is very unusual to have two very harsh winters back-to-back, but this winter will be similar to last winter…Local authorities need to be warned that they’ll have to handle another very cold winter.”

Ireland experienced its coldest winter in more than 65 years last winter when sub zero temperatures and snow affected much of the country during December and January. The prolonged cold spell also put severe pressure on grit and salt supplies with some local authorities having to be resupplied with imported grit from the Continent.

Meanwhile, some forecasters say this winter could be the coldest Europe has seen in the last 1,000 years. They say the dramatic change is connected with the speed of the Gulf Stream, which they say has shrunk in half in just the last couple of years.

Polish scientists say that it means the stream will not be able to compensate for the cold from the Arctic winds. According to them, when the stream is completely stopped, a new Ice Age will begin in Europe.

Winter 2010-2011 Forecast From Positive Weather Solutions

December: Chilly, some wintry weather around.
A chilly but dry start to December with some dry and bright weather around, but also some rain - amounts of which are not expected to give cause for concern. Through mid-month, high pressure consolidates, so expect a run of dry weather, which will combine chilly and bright daytimes, with clear and crisp nights, leading to sustained frost and fog activity, some of which will persist throughout the day, predominantly inland and in more so valley locations. During the final segment of December, unsettled weather chiefly affecting the higher ground across the eastern and north-eastern side of the UK, and possibly higher ground pushing westward for a time, may well deliver a White Christmas.

January: Mainly dry start, wintry weather developing.
A cold but dry start to January, quite raw at times, with a continuation of dry and bright conditions by day, with some sharp night frosts, particularly inland. By mid-month, with the cold theme continuing, sleet and snow showers will become increasingly more widespread, with moderate falls of snow possible, which have the potential to cause disruption - particularly for eastern and upland regions. PWS will continue to assess how the detail of the expected snowfall develops, but confidence is high that this eventuality will occur. January ends with dry and bright conditions alternating with periods of wintry weather, with the north and northeast again most likely to experience the worst of the conditions, with the south and west seeing more of a rain/sleet combination for the most part.

February: Bitterly cold month, wintry weather.
Another largely cold start to another month, with the ongoing threat of wintry conditions, in the form of organised bands of rain, sleet, and snow, interspersed with drier and brighter weather. Through mid-month, the likelihood and confidence of more widespread and disruptive snowfall increases, most likely once again to the north and east, with for a time, the south and west affected too, and some level of disruption can be expected. PWS will continue to monitor this segment of the forecast. By late month, although the cold conditions show signs of receding somewhat, further wintry weather especially to the north and east cannot be ruled out, with the south and west more likely to see a rain/sleet mix.

Link to above post..... http://www.wfc.ie/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=145:ireland-to-face-big-freeze-for-winter-20102011-&catid=1:latest-news&Itemid=45
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Autumn Snow Forecasts - A Clarification

Following a lot of stories in the media this week, we felt it would be useful to clarify the situation with regard to snow this October and November.

At this point in time the Netweather long range forecast (which was updated earlier this week) is pointing toward temperatures in October being close to or perhaps slightly below average, with November currently forecast to be cooler than average.

Typically October will bring some snow to the hills and mountains of northern Britain but rarely does it bring any low level or widespread snowfall, with the forecast being for temperatures to be close to average, at this stage there is no reason to suggest that anything out of the ordinary is likely, and any forecasts of widespread snow during October have not been made by Netweather.

Into November, snowfall is less rare and recent years have shown that even lower levels can see snow - particularly later in the month. With the current forecast showing the potential for temperatures to be below normal, this could indicate the increased risk of more widespread snow - but at this range there is no way to accurately predict whether this may be the case and should it occur, when it may happen.

Netweather's long range forecasts are updated once a month and look purely at climatic features - such as whether or not a month is likely to be warmer or colder than average or whether it is likely to be wetter or drier than average. From this it's possible to derive some conclusions as to whether a particular weather type (such as snow) is more or less likely but it's only at much shorter range that specific day to day conditions can be forecast with confidence.
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Snow by Friday
Heatwave to end with 20°C drop in temperature
BRITAIN'S Indian summer will come to a halt this week as temperatures plunge — with snow in some areas by Friday.

The mercury edged close to Saturday's October record of 29.9°C — but it is set to fall 20 degrees in days.
The Met Office warned: "It is going to get very, very much colder and we can expect frosts."

Snow is forecast in the Scottish Highlands from Friday, moving south to the Pennines soon after. By next week the south will have frosts and thick fog.

Link to the above post ...... http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/3849382/Snow-to-hit-UK-by-Friday-as-heatwave-ends.html
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ummm, snow in the highlands. The sun are really grasping at straws here!!
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Seasonal Forecast for Autumn 2011 (Shortened)


Valid from: 1st September until 30th November 2011
Issued: 30th August, 2011 (Final Edition)

Blocking Index: 8.2/10.0 (upper third on scale)

Strong preference toward negative phase of the North-Atlantic Oscillation: Prominent blocking high, which is more likely to be proximal to the UK. A cool and dry theme is now likely to dominate during the autumn period. Some major blocking patterns close to the British Isles may give rise to warm conditions in the south of England during September, whilst some severe cold and frosty periods are likely later in the season.
General Overview:

During the autumn 2011 season, temperatures are expected to close to average or well below for much of the United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland with an anomaly of -0.7 ± 0.4°C (-1.3 ± 0.7°F). Much of this cool anomaly is due to well below average sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean. The effects of climate change act to counteract this anomaly, with a global trend of close to +1.0°C (1.8°F). As a result, the energy required for heating a household or work-place is likely to be around average at 11 ± 7% – a significant increment above the 1961 – 1990 average. Since surface temperatures have slowly been increasing over the British Isles, this represents a cool autumn (typically a 1 in 10 year event). Snowfall is generally rare during the autumn period; and the SnowCast predictions undertaken by Weather Logistics UK indicate well above average snow day events across much the UK and Ireland, with snow-day events typically 15% more frequent than usual.

The early autumn weather will be on the wet side of average over Northern Ireland, Scotland and Northern England as the September jet stream lies much further north. As such, rainfall totals are likely to be around -11 ± 25% below the norm (with rainy days -7% below average) with the driest weather in the latter half of the autumn period. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is also expected to be more positive (less strongly negative) early in the season, again indicating some stormy conditions during September. Later in the season, a gradual shift to La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean will tend to give rise to much cooler conditions, as high pressure and a continental weather pattern begins to dominate the scene. Our jet-stream predictions indicate that wetter weather is more likely in South-west England, Wales and North-West England, where frontal systems will pass frequently. High pressure and dry weather conditions further south may at times lead to some warmer days from September to mid-October particularly for the southern counties of England.

In summary: A dry and cool autumn than average for many parts of the UK and the Republic of Ireland. The weather is likely to start unsettled over much of Northern England and Scotland, whilst turning wet in the southern and western counties later. There is an increasing risk of Arctic winds or easterly winds during late October into the end of November as the long term weather swings from near-neutral NAO indices to strongly negative values later in the season. The Republic of Ireland, Wales, South-west and Central England are more likely to experience changeable weather for much of the autumn period, in contrast to the North and Eastern counties.
Updates from last month …

Our NAO forecast has been reduced from last month to an index value of -0.5, so we anticipate that high pressure conditions are more likely over the North Atlantic Ocean close the British Isles for much of the autumn period. We have also increased the blocking index to 7.3 from 8.2, which indicates drier conditions than in our July forecast. Our empirical adjustment is strongly influenced by unseasonably cool sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean, demonstrating that a long-term blocking pattern is beginning to introduce a much cooler airflow into the British Isles. As a result, the autumn temperatures are expected to a further 1.0°C cooler than our previous forecast with Arctic air flows more likely. The energy required for household or business heating is now 33% greater than our forecast issued at the end of July, in the well-average category of 633 to 672 heating degree day units. The increased blocking pattern has acted to shift the rainfall patterns from north to south, with wetter conditions now more likely around the south-west of England and Wales.

From weatherlogistics.com
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At the end of September the free commuter paper “Metro” released speculative news, presenting the views of several seasonal forecasters who were predicting October snowfall in Britain. Yet as the days progressed, the UK Met Office shortly released their own press that boasted a late September heat wave.
Confused? Well it may be as daft as it sounds, as there are several strong links that tie together these two predictions – and its all down to the positioning of stubborn high pressure system …

At the moment a large high pressure system is sitting directly over Poland – and that is bringing many Europeans some welcomed sunshine and drawing hot southerly winds into England and Wales from Spain. The high pressure is extensive, spanning some 3000 miles from England to the Black Sea. We know the high is characteristic of an omega blocking pattern, as the frontal systems that should be bringing us rainfall to our shores are straggling in a latitudinal direction. Rather than fronts crossing from West to Eastern Britain toward Norway, they are standing virtually stationary around 15 degree due west. Furthermore, the jet stream which is responsible for directing the course of low pressures and their fronts is being deflected northward, transporting the cloud and damp weather over the top of Scotland and into the Norwegian sea.

So what does this mean for us ?.. One of the key features of a continental blocking high during the winter season is extremes of cold. This is especially the case in the UK and Ireland if the winds blow from an easterly direction. Whilst these conditions are not usually akin to Autumn, strong blocking patterns can make this plausible. The final autumn weather prediction produced by Weather Logistics UK at the end of August indicated that extremes of cold weather were likely later in the season. This was based on our unique jet stream – blocking interaction model, that used inputs of the strength (8.2/10.0) and the “preferred position” (15°W) of semi-stationary high pressure patterns over the North Atlantic Ocean. The autumn and winter forecasts both indicate a strong blocking pattern and below average temperatures.
Seasonal temperature variability is strongly controlled by the transport of water vapour. The passage of Atlantic air across Europe is extremely crucial to our water budget, bringing rainfall that irrigates our crops and gardens, but also in an invisible cloud of vapour that floats mysteriously above us. Water in the gas phase, known as water vapour, provides a warm blanket that absorbs heat energy leaving the surface and reduces its transfer to space. It is a potent greenhouse gas with surface mixing ratios typically more than a thousand higher than carbon dioxide accounting for up to 70% of our greenhouse effect. Unlike its counterparts such as carbon-dioxide and ozone, it is not a well-mixed gas, which means its mixing ratio in the atmosphere varies considerably both with height and spatially across the Earth’s surface. As a result, water vapour provide an irregular warming effect to our climate that tends to move in unison with our clouds. So weather systems that filter cloud into Europe also carry moisture over the continent, which exerts a regional warming on our climate.

Climate change itself can re-define the definition of typical seasonal weather… Changeable patterns usually characterise the weather of the British Isles, providing a mix of sunshine and damp conditions. When our usual weather patterns are disrupted or transformed by climate change, natural cycles or a combination of both the usual seasonal weather patterns that we may have been used to become misplaced. So regular inter-annual patterns of British snowfall in October is not only plausible, but it is a possible effect of climate change itself, if not paradoxically.

Posted Image
Location of blocking high during the autumn

A well positioned high pressure blocking, that sits over the European continent for a long period of time, continues to “cut-off” the input of water vapour into the atmosphere. Since high pressures are associated with subsidence and an outflow of air at the surface, conditions are exceptionally prone to dehydration. This is because much higher concentrations of water vapour are present in the lower portion of the atmosphere than the upper atmosphere, by around a factor of 100 over a 12km altitude. So there is usually a net export of water from stationary high pressure systems over land-masses. A second reason for dehydration is due to the large meandering of the upper level jet that enhances the intensity of precipitation downstream of the blocking high. This is because weather systems that are transported closer to the poles than usual experience a larger cooling near the cloud base, which increases the rate of condensation. An increase in the prevalence of blocking highs are responsible for both extremes of drought and flooding, since excentuated regions of high and low pressures remain stagnant over regions of the globe.

Although the relative humidity does not change significantly between the seasons, the absolute amount of water vapour that the atmosphere can hold before saturation rises by 7% per 1°C (1.8°F). Since temperature and greenhouse gases are coupled, decreasing the total column water vapour by just 30% can reduce the temperature by 5°C (9°F). A cold anomaly of this magnitude is enough to plummet the European weather into “ice-age” like conditions during the mid-Winter. Similarly, a rise in temperatures of 5°C is experienced when water vapour anomalies are 30% above their seasonal average.

Cold air tends to stick around for a long time … As cold air collects over the European continent, its relatively higher density in comparison to warmer and moister air resists the surface air-flow that attempts to dislodge it. Cold and dry air in the boundary layer is extremely hard to shift, so the longer a high pressure “sits put” over Europe during the autumn to winter periods the more likely it is to stay.

So with a blocking high dominating the scene of the British Isles, the weather is certainly set to take a cold turn by the end of October …

Article by Weather Logistics UK
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Cooler and Windy Weather



Wet weather has arrived after the warm weather of midweek with even the East coast getting a
bit of it.

The rain spreads quickly West to East so amounts are small.

Next week though the High could rebuild again.


Warm Weather Ends



Warm weather to end the month of September with temperatures potentially up to 24c. It is
going to dry out towards the end of the month and into the start of October.

This of course will be welcome although we do expect conditions to get colder as October
goes on with many night frosts and sub zero temperatures.

Yes it does look like the warm weather of the past few days is going to be quite short lived
and that things are going to cool down for the weekend.

In the medium term it may warm up slightly next week before the Winter chill sets in for good.


Colder October



October is looking a lot cooler than the end of September with the weather coming from a more

Northwesterly source and bringing temperatures generally in the low to mid teens.

The long range weather forecast for Ireland hints at things getting even colder late in the month with

some single digit days possible. However the weather will be generally drier than September

was.

The nights will have frost especially toward the end of the month when some of these

may be severe.


Winter 2011/12



Conflicting views on this but the general consensus is that it will be another cold season like the

past 2 years.

It looks like there will be a lot of dry weather and some frosts but also some wet

and windy spells also. Snowfall is quite rare in Ireland so people are getting very excited about

another month or 2 of snow like last year but this is very unusual. Maybe a few snowy episodes

but temperatures like last year are rare indeed.

-ma-d- -ma-d- -ma-d- p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k

-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n I wonder what POD will have to say,when he posts his 2011/12 winter forecast

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When will POD be delivering that forecast?
No snowflake in an avalanche ever feels responsible.
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30 degrees here last weekend. 17 today, and 13 by Friday. Will soon be lamp post watching!
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Eastcorkram , I hope so,,cant beat a bit of the white stuff..
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5 October 2011 Last updated at 15:22 GMT


Overnight snow forecast for Scotland's mountains




Snow has been forecast to fall later and overnight into Thursday on Scotland's mountains.

The Met Office said wintry showers were expected on summits in the east and west Cairngorms and also the Loch Lomond and the Trossachs National Park.

Gale force winds have also been forecast for upland areas of Scotland over the next few days.

Last year, snow fell on the highest parts of the Cairngorms during the last days of August.

The Mountaineering Council of Scotland (MCofS) said snow fell where patches of snow from the winter have survived.

Small patches of snow from one of Scotland's hardest winters on record had remained in the range.
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6 degrees here in Malahide this morning......
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Bristol braces itself for big freeze as experts predict harsh winter

Thursday, October 06, 2011
Bristol Evening Post



Posted Image
Gritters such as this one on the A4 Bath Road near Brislington in 2009 could soon be back in action as harsh winter conditions are expected again this year Picture: Paul Gillis


COUNCILS have been stockpiling vast stores of salt, as forecasters predict wintry weather could hit the Bristol area within weeks.

The Indian summer conditions which saw thermometers rise to more than 26°C ended only days ago – but with some meteorologists claiming snow could arrive before the end of the month, local authorities have moved to ensure they are not caught on the hop, as many were during the past two winters.
Already more than 11,000 tonnes of salt and grit have been put in storage to keep roads and paths passable should icy conditions take a grip. With one authority estimating that each 20g of salt can cover a square metre of road surface, the combined stores give the councils enough to cover 550 square kilometres – more than 200 square miles.

Long range forecaster James Madden, of weather website Exacta Weather, has predicted "significant snowfalls" for much of the UK from November to January, with some areas even seeing snow in October, and below average temperatures.

Local authorities have been caught on the hop over the last two winters, with low temperatures and heavy snowfall causing chaos on the roads.

But Bristol City, South Gloucestershire, North Somerset and Bath & North East Somerset councils all say they are well prepared this time round.

Bristol already has 1,500 tonnes of grit ready to be used, although this is less than its three neighbouring authorities, which have longer rural road networks to cover.

The city's new waste contractor May Gurney will be responsible for gritting roads across the city, taking over from SITA next month.

They will use a fleet of eight vehicles from the main depot in Hartcliffe, promising to grit priority routes within four and a half hours of instruction.

The city council's winter service plan pre-treats roads in the following order: principal roads; major routes connecting population centres and commuter routes; major bus routes; roads around hospitals.

There are also 650 grit bins placed across the city on hills and minor routes.

South Gloucestershire Council said it was fully stocked ready for winter, with 6,000 tonnes of salt under cover and available for distribution.

It has 11 new gritting lorries to replace an ageing fleet of vehicles.

Each gritter is equipped with up-to-date technology that will make them cheaper to run and maintain, as well as allowing more efficient use of road salt.

Council spokesman Dominic Moody said preparations for the winter's gritting operations started in the summer and the gritters would be available around the clock to treat local roads if conditions dictated.

He said: "Staff training for this winter has been completed and rotas for the season are all prepared."

North Somerset Council highways chiefs say they have 2,000 tonnes of road salt ready to use.

Last year the authority tripled the amount of road salt it is able to store – thanks to a purpose-built storage barn in Sandford.

The authority uses 30 tonnes of road salt each time it grits the road, with 29 per cent of the roads across the district being treated.

Last year the council used 1,300 tonnes of road salt over the winter period.

North Somerset spokesman Nick Yates said: "We believe that 2,000 tonnes will be enough to see us through the winter but would obviously order more if this was not adequate."

The authority has spent £270,000 on surface dressing a number of routes around the district ready for winter and to prevent costly carriageway repairs in the future.

Bath & North East Somerset Council has 1,700 tonnes of salt already, and that is due to go up to 2,300 by winter.

Spokesman James Hinchcliffe said: "Following salt shortages we've increased our storage capacity by 1,000 tonnes, a 77 per cent increase.

During the last two winters the council has consumed over 8,000 tonnes of salt.

"Following a winter review the council increased the length of roads treated by eight miles and added approximately 20 more grit bins."

During the last two winters staff have been redeployed from other services to support snow clearance.

A pilot scheme is planned for this winter, use of "snow wardens" to co-ordinate volunteers to help clear snow in areas away from the routes cleared by the council.
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Cairngorm Mountain.


Posted Image



Weather Forecast
Friday 7th October: Showers with hail, and of snow above 750m. The air very clear but visibility very poor in the snow. Temperature at 900m: 1C. Wind NW, decreasing slowly through the day from 40-55mph, gusts 75mph post dawn to 30mph gusts 45mph by dusk.
Afternoon Friday am Friday pm Saturday am
Weather
Min Temp. 3°C 2°C 2°C 2°C
Max Temp. 4°C 3°C 4°C 4°C

Link to site...... http://www.cairngormmountain.co.uk/
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www.metoffice.gov.uk


Updated: 1441 on Fri 7 Oct 2011
UK Outlook for Wednesday 12 Oct 2011 to Friday 21 Oct 2011:

Unsettled conditions continuing across northern parts of the UK, with strong winds, showers and longer spells of rain at times. Some brighter spells can be expected here too, especially across eastern parts. Drier and brighter further south, with the best of the sunny spells towards the east. Temperatures generally close to normal, but perhaps rather warm at times by day in the southeast. The unsettled conditions across the north are then likely to spread south over the weekend of the 15th and 16th, leading to outbreaks of rain and strong winds at times. Thereafter, generally remaining unsettled, especially in the north and west, with outbreaks of rain and strong winds. Settled periods in the south, may lead to an increased risk of fog and frost developing overnight.

Updated: 1141 on Fri 7 Oct 2011
UK Outlook for Saturday 22 Oct 2011 to Saturday 5 Nov 2011:

Temperatures are likely to be close to or a little below normal for most parts of the UK for the end of October. However, they are likely to return back to the seasonal average as we progress into November, perhaps slightly above at times in the south and east. Rainfall amounts will continue to be around average throughout the period, perhaps slightly higher than average towards the north and west at first. Sunshine amounts will also be close to the seasonal average for the time of year, with the best of the brightness towards the south and east.


p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k :( :( :( :( -ma-d- -ma-d- -ma-d- -ma-d- -ma-d- -ma-d- -ma-d- ??? ???
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Seasonal outlook - October 08, 2011
Cold end December?
Chilly November too

Issued: Saturday 8th October 2011
Duty forecasters: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob


*November*
It looks as if low pressure will at first be anchored to the west or southwest High pressure sitting over the UK, at this time of year is a recipe for typical autumnal weather; we will be chasing areas of cloud, determining the exact characteristics of the daily weather from area to area, a broad overview being essentially dry, settled and for the most part cool, offset by pleasant mid-autumn sunshine. Overnight mist and fog is highly likely as is frost, this will however be determined by cloud amount, winds mainly light to variable.
The Atlantic takes over through the middle period, so milder and more unsettled conditions sweeping eastward later with a generally westerly for a time, high pressure builds back again, so settled weather establishing once more.
The centre of the high will drift around, the peripheral areas seeing more cloud from time to time and perhaps patchy rain or drizzle, as high pressure edges westward towards the end of the month it is possible that the first plunge of 'true' Arctic air could push south, some snow showers for a time over northern hills and mountain tops.
A colder and frosty end to the month is anticipated as this colder air becomes trapped beneath a developing area of high pressure.

*December*
Cold air and settled weather may character the opening few days of the month, this however looks as if it'll be shunted out of the way by low pressure and milder Atlantic conditions, rain and strong winds for all areas and perhaps preceded by some temporary wintry mixture across the north of the UK.
The Atlantic may rule the roost for the first 10 days, thereafter winter is indicated to unfold in perhaps quite a dramatic fashion. Low pressure looks as if it'll be halted over the UK as pressure builds to the east and north of the UK, a southerly flow swinging into the southeast and east, much colder continental air being drawn into the country, wintry precipitation perhaps widespread.
The confidence on the exact detail of mid to late December is not high at this extended range, save to say that the indications are that winters 'opening salvo' may be quite brutal, mainly cold and wintry for a time. Too early to say whether this cold weather will extend into the Christmas period just yet, winter 2011-12 may see some 'chopping and changing', but essential the prognosis is 'rather cold and lengthy'?
weatheronline.co.uk

-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l
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Brrr-ace yourselves! Britain to shiver in -20C in WEEKS as councils stockpile extra grit

1.4million tonnes of salt has been ordered this year
Snow already falling in Scotland
Temperatures in London today are 16.5C lower than last week


Britain is just weeks away from being in the grip of temperatures as low as -20C, forecasters have predicted.

Parts of Britain already saw snow this week, with two inches falling in the Cairngorms in Scotland.

The rest of Britain is being warned to brace itself for wintry conditions and falling snow from the beginning of November.

And it looks like the colder weather is already on its way - as temperatures today plunged in certain areas to just 8C - a staggering 21.5C below last weekend's record highs - with the wind chill making it feel decidedly colder.
In central London today readings of 13C were recorded, in Macduff, Aberdeenshire, the mercury plummeted to 8C, while Plymouth, in Devon, was comparatively basking in 16C of heat.

The warning of freezing weather comes as a survey from council leaders reveals local authorities are stockpiling thousands of tonnes of extra road salt this year in anticipation of another white winter.

James Madden, long-range forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: 'I expect the most frequent and heavy snowfalls to occur across many parts of the UK during November, December and January at present.
'I initially expect frequent and significant snowfalls across many northern regions and Scotland throughout this winter.

'Any earlier snowfall is likely to be more confined to northern and western parts of the UK, although large scale low pressure systems also offer the potential for significant snowfalls to many parts of the UK.

'I also expect November, December, January and February to feature largely below-average temperatures across many parts of the UK, it is likely that temperature and snowfall records will be broken within this defined time frame.'

Some shops are already planning ahead for the bad weather. Halfords has ordered in 10,000 plastic sledges in anticipation of the big freeze.

Research by the Local Government Association (LGA), which represents more than 350 councils in England and Wales, shows on average local authorities aim to have 1,500 tonnes more salt at the ready to treat roads and pavements than they did at the start of October 2010.

Each council spread about 3,900 tonnes of salt, on average, last year, while this year councils are armed with about 4,900 tonnes.

In total, an estimated 1.4million tonnes of salt is expected to be stockpiled this year.

Many authorities faced criticism last winter as the nation's motorists battled dangerous roads caused by freezing temperatures, many becoming stranded.

Thousands of roads were left untreated as salt stocks plummeted and councils were forced to prioritise.

Cllr Peter Box, Chairman of the Local Government Association's Economy and Transport Board, said: 'Councils have a huge and important role to play in keeping the country running and know there is no room for complacency.

'Treating the roads means children can still get to school safely, their parents can get to work, care workers can reach those in need, ambulances and police can tend to emergencies, and the wheels of business don't grind to a halt.

'Local authorities have been hard at work making preparations for this winter ever since the end of the last one and keeping the roads open will be our number one priority.

'This year councils have more salt and better plans in place to make it go further while even more volunteers and community groups have been lined up to help with the great gritting effort.'

The Met Office is forecasting cloudy and cool weather today with some rain. Highs of 15C are anticipated in the west country with lows of 9C in parts of Scotland.

Outbreaks of rain are expected across the majority of the country tomorrow and into Monday.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2046766/UK-winter-weather-warning--20C-weeks-councils-stockpile-extra-grit.html


-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n Somehow, me thinks, the above report, is a bit over the top.Cant see that happening somehow.... h-e-h-e h-e-h-e






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Mark's UK Winter 2011-2012 Thoughts from the UK Icebox of Altnaharra


Link to video........ http://youtu.be/cOg3pM5EYbg


-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn 0-m-g- 0-m-g- 0-m-g- 0-m-g- t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e
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Is that our Mark being eaten alive - nice to put a face to the name if it is...... When's POD's forecast due out?
-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n
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October 8 2011, 08:43 PM
Is that our Mark being eaten alive - nice to put a face to the name if it is...... When's POD's forecast due out?
-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n
GreystonesGal Not Mark from IWO.. h-e-h-e h-e-h-e . -c-h-i-n I too, wonder when we will see PODs forecast, hope its to our liking.. t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e
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Christmas weather forecast introduction

Welcome to our dedicated Christmas 2011 weather forecast page. This will update regularly (usually each Saturday) during the run up to Christmas from September 1st and will take into account the weather patterns which develop during the autumn. Please remember that our Xmas forecast is intended to be for fun, as trying to forecast a single day even one week ahead is fraught with difficulty. The forecast is based on what we expect the general synoptic conditions to be like during the late December period.

Forecast .... Update 7, 08/10/2011
Our seventh update makes no change to the chance of Christmas snow this year. The reasoning for this is largely based on the amount of high pressure blocking which has developed in recent weeks, and is still showing signs of continuing into the middle of October. If a more unsettled theme develops during the next week, and looks like persisting through the middle part of the month the next update may increase the Xmas snow risk. So the current forecast is for rather unsettled weather with close to average temperatures, giving a risk of sleet or snow over higher ground in the north.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 25%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%

p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k :( :( :( -ma-d- -ma-d- -ma-d-
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October 8 2011, 11:21 PM
GreystonesGal
October 8 2011, 08:43 PM
Is that our Mark being eaten alive - nice to put a face to the name if it is...... When's POD's forecast due out? <br /> -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n
GreystonesGal Not Mark from IWO.. h-e-h-e h-e-h-e . -c-h-i-n I too, wonder when we will see PODs forecast, hope its to our liking.. t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e


I wonder more as to where the guys who run this forum are gone!!!!
Edited by Jessie, October 9 2011, 07:21 PM.
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BRITAIN FACES A MINI 'ICE AGE.
Monday October 10,2011



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Britain is set to suffer a mini ice age that could last for decades


BRITAIN is set to suffer a mini ice age that could last for decades and bring with it a series of bitterly cold winters.

And it could all begin within weeks as experts said last night that the mercury may soon plunge below the record -20C endured last year.

Scientists say the anticipated cold blast will be due to the return of a disruptive weather pattern called La Nina. Latest evidence shows La Nina, linked to extreme winter weather in America and with a knock-on effect on Britain, is in force and will gradually strengthen as the year ends.

The climate phenomenon, characterised by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Pacific, was linked to our icy winter last year – one of the coldest on record.

And it coincides with research from the Met Office indicating the nation could be facing a repeat of the “little ice age” that gripped the country 300 years ago, causing decades of harsh winters.

The prediction, to be published in Nature magazine, is based on observations of a slight fall in the sun’s emissions of ultraviolet radiation, which may, over a long period, trigger Arctic conditions for many years.
Although a connection between La Nina and conditions in Europe is scientifically uncertain, ministers have warned transport organisations and emergency services not to take any chances. Forecasts suggest the country could be shivering in a big freeze as severe and sustained as last winter from as early as the end of this month.

La Nina, which occurs every three to five years, has a powerful effect on weather thousands of miles away by influencing an intense upper air current that helps create low pressure fronts.

Another factor that can affect Europe is the amount of ice in the Arctic and sea temperatures closer to home.

Ian Currie, of the Meterological Society, said: “All the world’s weather systems are connected. What is going on now in the Pacific can have repercussions later around the world.”
Parts of the country already saw the first snowfalls of the winter last week, dumping two inches on the Cairngorms in Scotland. And forecaster James Madden, from Exacta Weather, warned we are facing a “severely cold and snowy winter”.

Councils say they are fully prepared having stockpiled thousands of tons of extra grit. And the Local Government Association says it had more salt available at the beginning of this month than the total used last winter.

But the mountain of salt could be dug into very soon amid widespread heavy snow as early as the start of next month. Last winter, the Met Office was heavily criticised after predicting a mild winter, only to see the country grind to a halt amid hazardous driving conditions in temperatures as low as -20C.

Peter Box, the Local Government Association’s economy and transport spokesman, said: “Local authorities have been hard at work making preparations for this winter and keeping the roads open will be our number one priority.”

The National Grid will this week release its forecast for winter energy use based on long-range weather forecasts.

Such forecasting is, however, notoriously difficult, especially for the UK, which is subject to a wide range of competing climatic forces.

A Met Office spokesman said that although La Nina was recurring, the temperatures in the equatorial Pacific were so far only 1C below normal, compared with a drop of 2C at the same time last year.

Research by America’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration showed that in 2010-11 La Nina contributed to record winter snowfalls, spring flooding and drought across the world.

Jonathan Powell, of Positive Weather Solutions, said: “The end of the month and November are looking colder than average with severe frosts and the chance of snow.”

However, some balmy autumnal sunshine was forecast for this week.

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/276516
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The latest Met Office probability maps for October, that were issued today.


Temperature

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Precipitation

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Sea level pressure.

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Himm This means above average temperatures for December to February. . p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k :( :( -ma-d- -ma-d-
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Sun's 11-year cycle means we're in for Arctic freeze this winter, say scientists

By Leon Watson

Last updated at 12:27 PM on 10th October 2011

Study measures sun's UV radiation to 'predict' seasons
First-ever 'high-resolution' scan of solar radiation
Cycle's effect on weather 'greater than first thought'
This year's low radiation makes for cold Easterly winds


It's been a lovely Indian summer - but it could come back to bite us.

That's what scientists predict after working out the first ever pattern of activity for the sun.

According to research, the sun runs on an 11-year cycle - and this affects winter weather over the northern hemisphere.

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The study says low solar activity can contribute to cold winters in the UK, northern Europe and parts of America.

Which is bad for us - because the sun is just emerging from a so-called solar minimum, when solar activity is at its lowest.

It means after a baking hot September, we could be in for a repeat of last year's big freeze.
But the study also raises the possibility that weathermen can predict cold winter weather over the northern hemisphere using the solar cycle.

Dr Adam Scaife, from the Met Office, one of the study's authors, said: 'Our research establishes the link between the solar cycle and winter climate as more than just coincidence.

'We've been able to reproduce a consistent climate pattern, confirm how it works, and quantify it using a computer model.

'This isn't the sole driver of winter climate over our region, but it is a significant factor and understanding it is important for seasonal to decadal forecasting.'

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Activity: Findings of a study show the sun has an 11-year cycle of activity which affects the weather on Earth

Up until now, researchers have only managed to see a weak link between solar activity and winter weather.

It was understood that when the sun is less active, we're more likely to see weak westerly winds during the winter in the northern hemisphere.

This pattern suggests that easterly winds could bring cold weather from the continent to the UK.

But scientists have struggled to incorporate these ultraviolet (UV) signals into climate models.

Today's findings, published in Nature Geoscience, used satellite measurements from NASA's Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) to reveal that differences in UV light reaching the Earth during the 11-year solar cycle are larger than previously thought.

The satellite, launched in 2003, is the first ever to measure solar radiation across the entire UV spectrum.
Professor of atmospheric physics, Joanna Haigh from Imperial College London, said: 'The instrument on the SORCE satellite divides UV light up into small wavelength regions, providing good spectral resolution.

'Before this, climate models used broad spectral bands, so couldn't reveal the solar signal.'

Using this new information in a Met Office climate model, researchers from the Met Office and the University of Oxford demonstrated that it's possible to reproduce the effects of solar variability which show up in climate records.

It seems that in years of low UV activity, unusually cold air forms over the tropics in the stratosphere, around 30 miles up.

This is balanced by a more easterly flow of air over the mid latitudes – a pattern which then makes its way down to the Earth's surface, bringing easterly winds and cold winters to northern Europe.

But when solar activity is higher than usual – around the peak of the 11-year solar cycle – the opposite happens: strong westerly winds bring warm air and so milder winters to Europe.

Lead author Sarah Ineson, from the Met Office, said: 'What we're seeing is UV levels affecting the distribution of air masses around the Atlantic basin.

'This causes a redistribution of heat – so while Europe and the US may be cooler, Canada and the Mediterranean will be warmer, and there is little direct impact on global temperatures.'

Link....: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2047338/Back-vengeance-Scientists-say-suns-11-year-cycle-shows-Arctic-freeze-return-winter.html#ixzz1aQTjmiRX



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We will be publishing our Winter 2011-12 forecast on Thursday
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
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Mark (IWO)
October 11 2011, 11:04 AM
We will be publishing our Winter 2011-12 forecast on Thursday
Thats great Mark..will be interesting to see what POD has for us this year.
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UK faces colder-than-normal winter - National Grid.


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Reuters) - Britain faces another colder-than-normal winter at a time when energy exports may surge as Europe struggles to cope without 8.3 Gigawatts of German nuclear capacity following the Fukushima disaster in Japan in March.

The prospect of greater exports squeezing UK gas and electricity supplies may force operators to backtrack and restart 2 Gigawatts (GW) of mothballed power generation capacity.

"We would expect the market to respond by exporting energy out of the UK which will lift power prices and encourage mothballed plants to restart," according to a spokesman from National Grid.

In its Winter Outlook 2011/2012 forecast published on Tuesday, National Grid said colder temperatures and Germany's decision to phase out swathes of nuclear capacity will increase exports from Britain to Europe.

"Germany's recent decision to close 8.3 GW of nuclear plant immediately and put in place a phased closure of all nuclear plant by 2022 is expected to have impacts during this winter," the network operator said.

The grid operator forecast below normal temperatures in the December-February period following a string of icy, snow-swept winters in the UK in recent years.

It said 2 GW of power generation capacity was mothballed this winter, but expected some of this generation could become available if electricity prices rise.

Cold weather drives gas and electricity demand.

At the same time UK power plant availability was revised down by 4 percent this winter to 61.3 GW, it said, adding that power producers are expected to "strongly favour" cheaper coal instead of gas for electricity generation.

The network manager also revised down power demand to 55.8 GW compared with 58.1 GW earlier - a reduction of 4 percent.

But the network operator said factors such as limited running time of coal plants under the EU's Large Combustion Plant Directive (LCPD) will influence generators' fuel choice.

Britain will lose around 12 GW in coal and oil-fired capacity under the LCPD by December 2015, more than 8 GW of which will be coal-fired power capacity.

Emissions-intensive power plants were given a 20,000 hour running time limit until late 2015 or were required to fit equipment to lower emissions.

GAS DEMAND UNCHANGED

Peak winter demand for gas was left unchanged at 474 million cubic meters/day chiefly because coal is expected to sideline gas as the leading power plant fuel.

Total demand for gas this winter was left unchanged at 55.7 billion cubic meters. Grid added that exports to mainland Europe via the Britain-Belgium gas link are subject to "considerable uncertainty," potentially driving demand higher if exports run at maximum capacity during winter.

Turning to supplies of gas, Grid says reduced output from the UK Continental Shelf will be offset by modest increases in liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries from Qatar.

Falling indigenous production will be further cushioned by stockpiles of gas held in storage especially as new facilities are opened over the next few months, boosting stocks to all-time highs, Grid said.

"GAS TO DRIVE WINTER POWER PRICES"

Gas is expected to drive spot electricity prices as it becomes the power plant fuel of last resort, also known as the marginal fuel, used by generators in times of peak demand.

"Whilst the colder weather risk will support power prices, it could be mitigated by increased wind capacity -- although colder weather tends to be accompanied by lower wind and increased gas-fired (generation) efficiency," according to UK energy analyst Nick Campbell of Inenco.

The inability of indebted euro zone nations to repay loans and head off a second recession forms the backdrop to energy outlooks in Europe, Campbell adds.

"In the background there is the fear of the economic slowdown, but this is if at all an impact towards the back end of the winter in (the second quarter of 2012)," he said.
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