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Are We Set For A Long, Cold Winter?
Topic Started: September 26 2011, 10:21 PM (7,110 Views)
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Autumn and into Winter - Long Range Forecast - Updated 12th October 2011
There is a lot of hype and discussion surrounding the upcoming Winter currently, with various (often spectacular) headlines in the media, but it's important to make clear that although the forecast below does point toward some cooler (or even colder) than average temperatures at times in the coming months, this doesn't mean that some of the snowmageddon like headlines are any more likely to be true.

As we wrote when reports of widespread snow during October were circulating (read the article here), long range forecasting is about looking for trends, and climatic pointers - for instance whether a month is likely to be cooler or warmer than average. It's not possible to forecast specifics such as how low temperatures will be, or where, when and how likely any snow may be - this has to wait until much shorter range.

November
As has been the case for a few months now, November is expected to see cooler than average temperatures for at least some parts of the country (albeit the current expectation is for temperatures to be fairly close to the average). Rainfall too is expected to be a little way below the norm for the time of the year. The reason for this is that pressure is expected to be highest to the north of the UK - this type of 'northern blocking' can often allow a feed of cold or cool air to move toward the British Isles.


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Winter
December
Winter is expected to begin with the northern blocking still in place, and this means that temperatures are forecast to be below average for much of the country. Rainfall levels are forecast to be close to, or a little below normal for the time of year.

Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image

January
As is always the case, the further into the forecast we go, the lower confidence there is so please bear this in mind as we look ahead to January..

Current expectations are that January will bring something of a change in pattern with Atlantic low pressure having more influence and bring milder temperatures with rainfall close to the the seasonal average too.

Posted ImagePosted Image


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UK winter - No cause for alarmism

11 October 2011 - Over the past few weeks, there have been some colourful headlines in some parts of the media about what's in store for this year's winter in the UK.

Reports of '-20C within weeks', 'A winter fuel crisis on the way' and 'Widespread snow in October' have all raised expectations that we're in for an 'Arctic winter'.

In an opinion piece for The Times, John Hirst - Chief Executive of the Met Office - calls for a sense of reason in response to the claims and makes clear these forecasts are not from Met Office.

He states: "[These headlines] bear no relation to the kinds of weather that forecasters at the Met Office are currently expecting - there is no need for alarm. These stories do reflect our national obsession with the weather but they can also confuse and even scare vulnerable people. The Met Office's job is to provide accurate and reliable information and at this stage we see no scientific evidence to support these premature predictions.

"In fact the scientific capability does not exist to allow such extremes to be identified on a long-range timescale... no forecaster can say whether we'll see a week of -20C temperatures in Manchester in the second week of December. This does not mean that harsh winter conditions are not possible, just that they cannot be identified at the moment."

He continues: "As winter approaches, local government and businesses are preparing for the worst that the British weather can throw at us. But the fact that local authorities are stocking up on grit is no cause for alarm. This is what contingency planners do. In fact, their preparations are encouraging because they mean the country should be in a good position to respond to our short-range forecasts of severe weather.

"Last year there was some confusion between our longer-range outlook which provided good advice over the whole winter - as January and February were relatively mild - and our shorter-range forecasts that correctly identified the prolonged cold and snowy weather early in the winter. In fact, our forecasts of where and when it would snow were second to none. Although it is not possible to prevent disruption, our detailed forecasts allowed agencies to put their resources in the right place at the right time to ensure that it was kept to a minimum."

He concludes: "In recent years we have seen great scientific and technological advances that allow us to warn of impending severe weather with ever greater lead times and with ever greater detail. Rest assured that this year the Met Office will continue to offer that service, warning of any severe weather in plenty of time to get out the gritters - and the jumpers - when it matters."

p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k :( :( -ma-d- -ma-d- -ma-d- -ma-d- -ma-d- -il-l- -il-l- -il-l- p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k
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IWO Winter 2011-2012 Forecast For Ireland

By Peter ODonnell - Thu Oct 13, 4:12 pm..



Peter O’Donnell is a Canada-based climatologist who specialises in providing long range weather forecasts for Ireland and the United Kingdom. Peter also provides the daily Long Range Forecast For Ireland. This is Peter’s second winter forecast for Irish Weather Online (last year’s forecast may be viewed here).
Methodology

This seasonal forecast is based on Peter O’Donnell’s research into natural variations in atmospheric patterns using an extensive data base on both monthly and daily time scales.

Peter’s research began in North America around 1980 and was extended to Europe as part of global modelling efforts, with the major advance being a forecast and detailed research program that began in 2005. As a result, this is the seventh winter forecast that Peter has issued for the U.K. and Ireland. Global patterns and solar activity are factored into the forecasts, but the primary basis remains a numerical model of temperature variations that can be connected to index values for pattern types.

The model considers various factors that theoretically link the complex solar system magnetic field (which could be described as “space weather” or the state of the solar wind compared to average at various points in time. Then, using a theory that links the solar system magnetic field to earth’s upper atmosphere, the model derives a forecast of atmospheric variations from normal. A third and very significant step is to model in an independent set of variations based on lunar-atmospheric tidal effects.

The main point to keep in mind is that the forecast model is basically the sum of many small variations which, if they existed alone, would produce only slight variations in the weather day to day or year to year. But if there are twenty or more such variables all interacting, then the cumulative effects can become considerable. This particular seasonal forecast is fine tuned from “re-analysis” or a look back at recent seasonal forecast efforts and feedback into the research model from a study of timing or intensity errors.

Unlike some in the long-range forecasting business, we make no elaborate claims of high accuracy but we believe that over the past five years this method has produced some of the best results, for example, the severe cold spell of last December.


Overview for winter 2011-12

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IWO Winter Forecast summary. Average temperature explanation below

MEAN WINTER TEMPERATURES – “Normal monthly temperatures in central Ireland are near 7 deg in November, 5 to 6 in December, 4 to 5 in January and February, and back up around 6 to 7 by March. That of course is the average of night and day, and the range is usually about 6 degrees or so, which for example means that an average mid-November day has a high near 10 C and a low near 4 C. Our forecasts show the expected departure, known as an anomaly, relative to these averages which are known as normals even though only a few days out of each month actually come in right on the average values.”

From a starting point in mid-October, we consider the five month period November to March, with “climatological winter” defined as being the months of December, January and February, whereas “meteorological winter” can, as we saw last year, fall in any of the five months in the Irish climate.

As is now becoming clearer on reliable time frame global forecast models, late October could be a lot colder than the past three weeks have been. That colder trend may fade out for part of early NOVEMBER with another mild spell, but colder weather with some snow may then return in the second half of November. In general this is not expected to be as dramatic as last year, and the severe cold is not expected to continue through most of DECEMBER; instead, there may be roughly equal spells of mild and cold weather with possibly a rather stormy theme and a wide variety of daily weather types that will include some strong winds, some heavy rainfalls and some snow or ice. The output for the Christmas to New Year period suggests a milder interval after some rather cold days about a week before Christmas.

JANUARY may be “the” month of the winter as our model forecast suggests some much colder than average weather through most of the month. The details may include a few brief milder turns which could involve snow to rain type breakdowns, but there are indications of cold spells with northeast or east winds that are often associated with snow in eastern counties, and in particular around Meath and Dublin. as well as Wicklow. The lunar components suggest that the week starting around 8th January could become stormy and cold enough for snow to be dominant by then, although the south could remain in more mixed precipitation. The greatest depth of cold, suggesting higher pressure building up from the east, should come a little after mid-January. More snow seems likely in the period that has delivered in some recent winters, around end of January and first few days of February.

The output then suggests a steady warming trend to produce a rather mild FEBRUARY once that early cold and snow comes and goes, and that scenario suggests some risk of flooding with the thaw and melt. Otherwise February may become a rather settled and almost early spring-like month with some of the model temperature output well above normal.

MARCH looks rather chilly especially towards the end, and could involve a minor return to winter or near winter conditions, so in terms of a seasonal “overview” the dominant theme might be variable but a colder winter than many in the “modern” period, perhaps a winter more typical of the colder climate periods of the past, but either not as extreme as last year, or if everything comes together just right (or wrong, depending on your point of view), a January that may remind us of the December of last winter, with some previews of that in mid-December. Wishing to remain a bit conservative, the monthly temperature forecasts relative to normal are set as:

NOVEMBER: -1 deg (variable but trending cold)
DECEMBER: 0 deg (normal but variable)
JANUARY: -2 deg (cold, potentially colder to -4 deg)
FEBRUARY: +2 deg (mild)
MARCH: -1 deg (cool)

Precipitation forecasting tends to be error-prone just because of greater regional complexity, but with so many changes in regime, it would be sensible to expect some intervals of heavy precipitation and also some two to three week dry spells. Over the research period, winter full and new moons tend to be more stormy than background in the eastern Atlantic, and we’ll explore some of the research model details in that regard as we move through the season. The full moon around 10-11 December should produce a significant storm (probably the second of a set) likely moving northwest to southeast given the expected setup, so that could be a time for one of the winter’s stronger wind events. The new moon around Christmas is embedded in a mild spell so we are expecting either a foggy inversion with the storm track well to the north, or possibly a mild storm running well north of Connacht around that time, and then there could be a northerly blast to follow around New Years, followed by a volatile period of strong west to northwest flow.

The January full moon energy peak 8th-10th coming around a time indicated to be turning much colder could be the trigger for the most significant weather event of the winter which could be a stormy period involving some heavy snowfalls. Later on, the new moon period seems more likely to drive the storm track well south towards Iberia. If there is a secondary track closer to Ireland this may become a time for snow or ice storms (20th-24th). There are secondary energy peaks that fall roughly five days before these main lunar energy peaks, which sets up an uneven modulation of five and nine or ten days in the likely pressure oscillation, that could show up in a tendency for one week to be settled, then the next week stormy, as a sort of background rhythm to the winter season. The settled weeks are likely to be also the coldest until February, but then the mildest as the flow becomes more southerly or southwesterly. And it appears from the numerical output that these settled periods will tend to fall around mid-months.
Conclusions and Updates

With this time scale, the details are bound to change to some extent and the main point of adding them to basic trends is to give the reader a sense of the range of weather types to be expected. To some extent, timing these exactly is not really the main point for those who want to plan their business ahead of time — the more conventional forms of forecasting will lead into the active periods, but this overview may give you some idea what to expect in general and we would stress the menu being more important than the order of service. That might not work for a restaurant but the current “state of the art” in seasonal forecasting is frankly well short of being what we could call a fully developed science, no matter what various gurus say in their press releases. For this forecaster, the stimulus of trying to provide some details has a positive effect on the research, and gives us a foundation that is better than just a vague outlook as was and is the custom with large agency forecasts.

Winter 2011-12 looks like being quite an active winter and not lacking in wintry weather types, although not entirely dominated by them either. Readers in more isolated and upland locations might be well advised to have extra supplies on hand at a fairly early stage of the winter in case the early opportunities for cold dig in, but we think your main challenges will come in January this year. In any case, updates to a long range forecast make even more sense than updates to a shorter time scale and so we don’t take a “live or die” approach to this early call, as patterns develop and interact, we may well have an adjusted outlook closer to the actual winter season. Not surprisingly, the outlook for the U.K. will tend to mirror this forecast for Ireland but a separate forecast for the U.K. will become available early next week.

– Peter O’Donnell for Irish Weather Online
Email your questions to podonnell@irishweatheronline.com


So this coming Winter,,,some wind h-e-h-e ,some snow h-e-h-e ,some rain -ma-d- ,some sun , p-c-w-h-ac-k and some snow again . h-e-h-e

One thing for sure,,that dam snow dome looks like it will take up a southerly position once again over Cork... p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k -ma-d- -ma-d- -il-l- -il-l- p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k
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October 15 2011, 02:10 PM
From todays Express.co.uk. 15/10/11


Posted Image
The topsy-turvy weather goes downhill from Monday

ARCTIC BLAST TO BRING SNOW

WINTER will roar in next week as a bitterly cold Arctic blast brings snow and freezing temperatures for up to 10 days.

The forecast comes as Britain enjoys one last hurrah of summer with unseasonably warm temperatures and sunshine expected today and tomorrow.

But the topsy-turvy weather goes downhill from Monday with the mer­cury set to plunge to below freezing bringing widespread frosts and snowfall, experts warned last night.

Two inches of snow is expected to fall in the Peak District, Pennines and Snowdonia with dustings possible as far south as Devon and Somerset.

Fierce northerly winds, which could reach gale force in the North-west, will make temperatures feel much colder.

Jonathan Powell, senior forecaster at Positive Weather Solutions, said: “Next week we are looking at the first real taste of winter. It is due to cold air being dragged in from the Arctic. We expect widespread frosts and snow in the North which may come down as far as the Midlands.”
He said freezing temperatures on Monday would “fall away sharply” towards the end of the week, plunging to minus 4C (25F) in parts.

“It will get worse and is certainly going to be the coldest spell of the season so far,” he added.

The Met Office said below-average temperatures could last until the end of the month with a second round of snow falling in the North next weekend.

It said: “Bands of rain or showers, occasionally heavy, will sweep south-east next week, bringing much colder conditions to all parts.

“The showers will fall as snow over higher ground in the North-west, and occasionally as far south as Snowdonia and the Pennines.
“The best of the sunshine in between showers will be in the South-east, but winds will become strong westerly or north-westerly, with a risk of gales in exposed north-western parts – giving a noticeable windchill.” It couldn’t be a more different picture from the balmy summer-like weather which brought record temperatures for October at the beginning of this month.

Thousands of Britons are expected to make the most of another warm spell this weekend with temperatures expected to hit 64F (18C).

But forecasters warn the cold will come as a shock. Paul Michaelwaite, of Netweather, said: “Maximum temperatures by the middle of next week could be in single figures across much of the UK, with air frosts developing overnight, and snow possible over the Scottish hills.

“It will feel like quite a shock to the system after so much hot weather.”

Weathermen say temperatures will continue to plunge over the next few weeks, with warnings of another big freeze this winter.

Britain is likely to be hit by temperatures as low as minus 20C – perhaps even lower – with widespread heavy snow as early as next month.

Below-average temperatures at the end of this month, next month and December will bring frequent heavy flurries across the whole country.

James Madden, long-range forecaster for Exacta Weather, said: “I expect the most frequent and heavy snowfalls to occur across many parts of the UK during November, December, and January.

“I also expect November, December, January, and February to feature largely below average temperatures. It is likely that temperature and snowfall records will be broken.”

World forecasters World Climate Service said “unusual cold” and “disruptive snow” would arrive in weeks with a mini ice age set to last for decades, bringing bitterly cold winters.

Senior meteorologist Richard James said: “We expect another winter of unusual cold and occasionally disruptive snow from the British Isles and France across Germany and southern Scandinavia to the Baltic states.

“The highest likelihood of unusual cold appears to be in early to mid-winter (late November to January), with moderating conditions possible by February.”

He said the UK would be “dominated by cold winters” for years due to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation, the atmospheric pressure weather system. “There is a chance that there could be a long negative NAO phase,” he added. “The last time we saw such a phase was in the 1950s and 1960s.”

The Local Government Association said last night councils were ready to grit the roads to keep traffic moving.

Association chairman Councillor Peter Box said: “There will be no room for complacency and town halls are continuously monitoring latest weather forecasts so they’re ready to respond when the first flakes fall.

“Gritters will be on standby around the clock, neighbourhood grit bins are being stocked and council staff have been liaising with volunteers and community groups to put in place plans to help keep smaller roads and pavements clear.”


http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/277583
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Mark Vogan shares thoughts on turbulent transition from summer to winter for the UK-Ireland


Link to video ......... http://youtu.be/aat7GEH4b1c

-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n h-e-h-e h-e-h-e t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e :) :) p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn
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Mark Vogan shares thoughts on the coming days ahead..

Video link........... http://youtu.be/DFMrwb10_rU

p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn -c-h-i-n h-e-h-e h-e-h-e t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn
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Winter 2011-12 Offical Weather Forecast

Issued on: Sunday 16th October 2011

Factors taken into consideration: ENSO, Solar Activity, Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies, QBO

After last years very cold November and December, everyone is wondering what this winter is going to bring. In the last couple of weeks we’ve seen newspaper headline after newspaper headline claiming that we’re going to see a bitterly cold winter this year. We’ve also seen some scientific articles discussing, and linking Low Solar Acivity with cold European winters, so it’s great that we’re finally able to gather evidence and get closer to proving that theory, one of which, I have been using to forecast Long Range. The dull, almost snowless second half to last winter was caused by a very strong La Nina which weakend during the earlier part of this year, and is now forecasted to strenghten again, the atmosphere has remained in a La Nina based state.

Current ENSO predictions are widely forecasting a generally weak La Nina as we move through the later part of this year and into 2012, however, there are some problems with this, due to a less Easterly Based QBO in latest predictions, if the QBO becomes positive and Westerly, this could boost La Nina and strenghten it, so whilst exact ENSO predictions are uncertain at the moment, the general idea is for a weak./Moderate La Nina. The graphs below illistrate this.

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That brings me onto my next factor, which is solar activity. In recent years, Solar Acitivty has been increasingly talked about in the weather community. It is believed that Low Solar Activity cools the trosphesphere above the Arctic, leading to increased Northern Blocking, in turn, forcing the Jet Stream Southwards allowing much colder air into Europe and the UK. In recent weeks, scientific studies and articles have now begun to show this link. It’s important to remember though, this is just one factor and of course, Low Solar Acitivty does not mean we will be seeing cold winters consistently, year after year.

In the past few months, solar activity has increased and is no longer at a “solar minimum” however in comparison to previous solar cycles, we’re still fairly below average, we also have to take into account the “lag effect” whilst I think the increased sunspot activity will have an impact on this winters weather, it will not be huge. Here are some graphs illitrating the current rising solar activity, whilst showing we’re still below the usual average.

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That brings me onto my next factor, the QBO. Whilst its not fully understood just how the QBO effects our weather, it is generally understood that a Negative QBO leads to increased blocking, and colder weather through the January and February winter months, whilst a positive QBO leads to increased Atlantic activity thanks to a stronger ENSO bringing Atlantic dominated weather through January and February.

The QBO is currently in a negative, Easterly phase and has been increasing, however models are starting to show this becoming less Easterly, and more Westerly which could result in a milder, second half to our winter, similar to that of last year. Here is a graph to illistrate this.

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Last but not least, we’re going to take a look at the Indian Ocean Dipole Long Range forecasting charts, at this time last year they were generally quite accurate at picking out the colder November-December temperatures. The map posted below shows us the Precipitation model, which is going for below average rainfall through the December-February period.

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The below chart shows us the IOD Temperature Surface predictions, which are, and have been forecasting for some time a below average period between December-February.

Posted Image

Monthly Forecast

Taking all of the above factors into consideration, Weak ENSO, Increased Solar Activity, Negative Westerly QBO, I have come to the following conclusion on this winters weather. I will cover the months November-February.

November:

After a generally unsettled, milder start to the month, High Pressure will quickly begin to develop towards the North and West of the United Kingdom bringing in much cooler continential air, the first snowfalls will begin to affect Northern and Eastern England, quickly spreading to produce widespread heavy snowfall with temperatures struggling to get above freezing, the cold isnt likely to be as intense as November 2010 however, with temperatures recovering from time to time, before becoming freezing again. Worst of the snowfall is likely to fall in the North and East of England.

December:

December will start off where November left off, generally cold and snowy, as we move towards the second week of the month, I expect that we’ll see a slight thaw as Low Pressure begins to enrode away at the High Pressure. Northern areas may stay cold with some snow, however further south it’ll turn milder for a short time before High Pressure re-establishes itself, allowing colder air to flood Southwards again. Christmas sees snowfall across the North and East, the South and West will be cold, but generally dry and sunny.

January:

As we move into January, a combination of a Westerly QBO and slightly stronger ENSO will result in a more mobile, mixed weather pattern. High Pressure to the North of the UK will begin to weaken, this will allow low pressure systems to enrode into Southern parts of the United Kingdom turning things milder and a little more unsettled, having said that, from time to time the colder air will flood across Southern parts once again. So, January sees a middle ground scenario, generally cool, with milder spells becoming increasingly frequent, particularly towards the end of the month.

February:

High Pressure will finally lose its touch and begin to sink Southwards across the United Kingdom thanks to a stronger La Nina, this will turn things generally settled for a time during the beginning of the month, however as we head towards the middle and second half of the month, High Pressure will continue to slide to the South of the UK, allowing Low Pressure systems bringing more unsettled weather to parts of the North.

Confidence in this forecast is lower than usual due to conflicting signals, the further into winter this forecast goes, the lower confidence drops.

http://ukweather.wordpress.com

??? ??? -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn :( ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
Edited by Audi-Tek, October 16 2011, 08:29 PM.
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4 degrees in Malahide this morning!
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Earliest snow in Ireland since 1964
By Robert On October 17, 2011


“The last time we had snow this early was on today’s date in 1964,” says reader in Ireland.

N. Ireland had a bout of very heavy rain and strong winds today. Early in the afternoon, as a cold front moved south-east, reports of sleet and snow started to come in to our local television station.

Pictures of snow lying below the 1000 ft level were shown on the evening news.

The last time we had snow this early was on today’s date in 1964.

John McCullough


http://iceagenow.info/2011/10/earliest-snow-ireland-1964/
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Look at all of the cold in the oceans!


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SNOW PREDICTED for end of October 2011
Workers at London Gatwick aiport have been told to prepare for light snow in the last week of October 2011


PRLog (Press Release) - Oct 12, 2011 -
Exclusive Insider knowledge from workers at Gatwick airport warns of light snow due to hit the runways at the end of October. Preparaaions are being made to ensure the runways remain clear and mechanical Gritters have been prepped for spreading as soon as temperatures drop to near freezing.

Every year Gatwick workers valiantly battle extreme freezing weather conditions to keep flights on time and customer journeys running smoothly. Accurate weather forecasting plays a huge role in helping to formulate plans and early warnings of extreme weather ensure services continue to run as they should

Camping World have been preparing early this year for extreme winter conditions by stocking large quantities of sledges, toboggans, hats, gloves, scarves, both adults and kids snow boots, ski jackets, salopettes, chemical hand warming pads and various other useful winter accessories to keep you warm


http://www.prlog.org/11692329-snow-predicted-for-end-of-october-2011.html
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This is from the WORLD CLIMATE SERVICES.
This is their forecast for Nov to Feb. ..


"Blocking effects are likely to be dominant as fall transitions to winter. The early winter patterns for November, December, and January for both North America and Europe will take shape in November.
Warmer and drier than normal conditions will continue in the southern U.S. with no relief expected from the persistent drought. Meanwhile relatively cool conditions will be present from the Great Lakes to the Pacific Coast with occasional intrusions to the Atlantic Seaboard.
Cold and dry weather will prevail across northwestern Europe while wetter than normal conditions are likely along the Mediterranean Sea south of the Alps. The European winter is expected to create some of the same harsh conditions experienced during the past two winters.
The situation is similar to that of last year, when the forcing by the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) overwhelmed the La Niña effects that were widely expected to prevail early in the season. The development and maintenance of a negative NAO pattern is predicted by WCS statistical analyses and seems likely because of subdued solar activity, the reduced strength of the summer polar vortex, and the shift of the Quasi- Biennial Oscillation (QBO) to a negative phase.
The blocking is likely to develop over the high-latitude North Atlantic during November, but the consequences for North America and Europe would be quite different if the blocking high pressure were centered to the west over Canada or to the east over Scandinavia or northern Russia.
Although the strength of La Niña waned recently, its effects are expected to become more prominent in the winter months of December, January, and February, perhaps becoming dominant early in 2012. Then the warmth in the southern U.S. will expand into the Southeast, and in northeastern Europe the early-winter cold may give way to milder conditions.
A wet start to the growing season in southern Brazil and northern Argentina will continue into the austral spring. Relatively cool and wet conditions are expected in eastern Australia and Queensland. Northeast Africa will be mild with dry conditions in the next month or two."


European Seasonal Outlook:
The atmospheric flow across Europe has shown a westward retrogression of the average upper-level ridge position in the last two months, leading to dramatic but short-lived changes in the temperature pattern. In late August the dominant ridge axis shifted from west-central Russia to southeastern Europe and eastern Scandinavia, bringing late-summer warmth to the latter regions. A powerful ridge then re-emerged near the Atlantic coast of Europe as October began, and record-breaking warm temperatures were observed in southern England. Most recently, the ridge axis has moved west of Britain and cold air has overspread Scandinavia and eastern Europe.
The World Climate Service expects that the average ridge position will continue to shift westward in the next month and that the mean ridge will build in the high-latitude North Atlantic as the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation returns. By mid-November, the blocked configuration of the upper flow over the North Atlantic will allow cold air to intrude into western Europe and will signal the onset of an unusually cold early winter period in much of western and northern Europe.
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Latest update from James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster) ..


A mild winter on the cards?

This winter certainly won't be remembered or be authenticated as being mild, neither will it be dominated by periods of mild weather. Some moderation at times, but the overall theme for this winter will be very cold and snowy across many parts of the UK.
As in my last update on the 2nd September 2011.
I expect the most frequent and heavy snowfalls to occur across many parts of the UK during NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, and JANUARY at present.
THIS STILL STANDS!
I initially expect frequent and significant snowfalls across many northern regions and Scotland throughout this winter. Any earlier snowfall is likely to be more confined to northern and western parts of the UK, although large scale low pressure systems also offer the potential for significant snowfalls to many parts of the UK.
THIS STILL STANDS!
I also expect NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, JANUARY, and FEBRUARY to feature largely below-average temperatures across many parts of the UK, it is likely that temperature and snowfall records will be broken within this defined time frame.
THIS STILL STANDS!
This is a logical conclusion based on the parameters I consider within my forecasts, any snowfall or temperature records broken within this defined time frame (November to February) or for the winter as a whole will be posted accordingly.
November 2011
Colder than average
Regions likely to be worst affected from snow in November: Scotland, N Ireland, North East, North West, Yorkshire, Midlands, East.
December 2011
Colder than average
Regions likely to be worst affected from snow in December: Scotland, North East, North West, Yorkshire, Midlands, East.
January 2012
Colder than average
Regions likely to be worst affected from snow in January: Scotland, N Ireland, North East, North West, Yorkshire.
February 2012
Colder than average
Regions likely to be worst affected from snow in February: Scotland, N Ireland, North East, North West.

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

ExactaWeather.com

Published: 19th October 2011 (14:45) BST..

-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn h-e-h-e h-e-h-e
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The winter forecast and media hype

Paul Hudson | 12:46 UK time, Thursday, 20 October 2011


The hype surrounding this year's winter forecast has been remarkable, unparalleled in my 20 years as a meteorologist.

Driven largely by sections of the tabloid press and several small private weather companies, the idea that this winter could be the worst ever recorded has already become firmly planted in many peoples' minds.

This is despite recent forecasting failures; the predicted heat-wave this summer by Netweather that never materialised; and the cold and snowy October blast, forecast by Exacta weather, that has turned out to be a total non-event - temporary chilly conditions in the last couple of days are perfectly normal for this time of year.

But both stories were lapped up by an ever eager media.

There are several reasons why we have seen a rise in sensationalist weather stories recently.

Firstly, weather sells newspapers. I remember when I worked for the Met Office they tried to tackle one national newspaper about their 'over the top' coverage of weather stories only to be told that weather sells newspapers (a rise in circulation of 10% was quoted by one newspaper editor each and every time there was a front page weather headline).

Secondly, a vacuum has been created by the Met Office, now they don't publish their seasonal forecasts anymore. This vacuum has been readily filled by small, private companies keen to get coverage.

But back to the subject of this winter. With the sun much more active than it was this time last year, there are no guarantees that this winter is going to be cold and snowy despite one forecaster's claim that this winter could be the 'coldest ever recorded' - which is, in my opinion, extremely unlikely.

Piers Corbyn of Weather Action, who analyses solar activity and how it impacts climate patterns, told me earlier in the week that this winters' forecast is not straight forward and 'a difficult call'. He will publish his winter forecast early next month.

Close inspection of the forecasts that are available suggests that on the balance of probabilities a colder than average winter is the most likely scenario. This would mean some disruption due to snow, but not as extreme or long lived as last year.

It's worth pointing out that this would mean 4 colder than average winters in succession, itself unusual for the UK, and we shouldn't altogether rule out an average, or even a mild winter.

Interestingly the latest seasonal forecast is now available from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF).

It indicates close to average winter temperatures (averaged over Dec, Jan & Feb).

But perhaps more interestingly, as can be seen below, it suggests higher than average pressure - which means lower rainfall.

Posted Image

This would be bad news for drought affected eastern England, and could, if correct, lead to serious problems next year.


About this blog


Posted Image Hello, I’m Paul Hudson, weather presenter and climate correspondent for BBC Look North in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire. I've been interested in the weather and climate for as long as I can remember, and worked as a forecaster with the Met Office for more than ten years locally and at the international unit before joining the BBC in October 2007. Here I divide my time between forecasting and reporting on stories about climate change and its implications for people's everyday lives.

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Winter Forecast 2011-2012
Oct 20, 2011; 3:26 PM ET.



We are looking at a much different winter than we saw last year. Some of the highlights of last year include some very chilly air over most of the continent early in the year, from November through December. London saw an average temperature of 7.5 degrees below normal for the month of December, and remember all that snow too. We are not looking like we will see such a cold time this year. That harsh start to the year was from a strongly negative NAO as the cold air just kept coming from the Arctic and would not stop. This year, it looks like we will at least start with a near to slightly above normal NAO, which would show a ridge over western Europe and a trough over eastern Europe. Don't forget that when we do see a ridge over western Europe, we can see some much colder than normal temperature over parts of eastern Europe normally, and it looks like we will have this also. Last year we had some very wet weather over Greece and southeastern Europe. That looks to be at least slightly less than last year, but still a bit above normal for parts of the area. But combine that with the cold air we are expecting, and we will see some much more snow than normal.

But let's look closer at the forecast. We are looking at a weather pattern where we see a mean ridge of high pressure over western Europe and a trough digging over eastern Europe. With this trough digging into eastern Europe we are looking at seeing some chilly temperatures over the higher elevations of southeastern Europe, where the opposite will be seen over Spain and Portugal. In northeastern Europe, I had a bit of a tough decision. With the help of Paul Pastelok, our great long range leader, and Jason Nicholls who also does a lot of international forecasting, we are looking at some near to even above normal temperatures are with a blocking pattern trying to setup, especially early in the forecast. The block is from a combination of the lack of sea ice and also some strong trough off to the south, which will also lead to a stronger blocking pattern around. And as we get further into the winter, we are looking at some changes as temperatures try and get milder over some areas like into Italy and even the U.K. as the ridge of high pressure builds. We also try and lose the trough over southeastern Europe, but I think that by that time, enough cold and snow will be seen that even a complete reversal will not matter and it will still average above normal. Below is a graphic with our thinking for the winter across the continent. Also note the less snowfall than last winter area over the U.K. and Ireland. This is going to be a key as last year we saw so much snowfall in the London area. We may struggle to see even a few flakes this year in the air down to London.

Posted Image

Now, some of the big things to hit on this year will be some threats we could see over the continent from this type of pattern. Number one will be the significant snowfall and cold weather over southeastern Europe. Last year we had lots of rain and precip, but temperatures were so mild we struggled to see much snowfall. This year will see less in the way of precipitation, but we will see more cold air around. This trough is likely to last for the entire year, so this may be a big item to look at for the next several months. Number two will be the mild and dry air continuing over Spain and Portugal. If this does happen as we expect, any storms that move in over the U.K. and northern France could bring some stronger winds to the area, and if they do, it may make for a dangerous pattern as the winds could just spark some fires due to the dry weather really continuing. It has been one unrelenting year over that area for heat, and we expect that to continue. By the end of the winter, we get to number three, where we are looking at the ridge building over the area and some mild air pushing into parts of Germany, France, Italy and even farther north for the U.K. and Ireland. So, even though it may be a below normal start over eastern Italy and into Germany, this may quickly get erased by the end of winter with the mild air just flooding in. Either way, below are some images with the expectations for temperatures and precipitation. Remember, it is tough to say snowfall as it varies so greatly due to the water around and into the Alps. A hundred miles can literally mean the difference between all rain along the French Riviera to feet of snow in the higher elevations of the western Alps.

First the temperature departure...

Posted Image

Posted Image





This was their winter forecast last year......... h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e


AccuWeather.com Europe Winter Forecast for 2010-2011

AccuWeather.com Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi is calling for the core of winter in Europe this year to target the southern portion of the continent, while areas from the United Kingdom into Scandinavia that were hit hard last year catch a break.

The major player in this winter's forecast is the phenomenon called La Niña, when sea surface temperatures across the equatorial central and eastern Pacific are below normal. Last winter was characterized by an El Niño, which is the opposite of La Niña with warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures.
Bastardi highlights that in past years in which there was a transition from an El Niño to a La Niña, such as this year, there tended to be unusual warmth north of latitude 40° north, which includes most of Europe.

This winter, Bastardi is generally going with this idea, though he is expecting the above-normal warmth to be a bit farther north. On average, above-normal temperatures are forecast for areas from the northern U.K. into Scandinavia. Precipitation is generally expected to be below normal in these areas.

While winter enthusiasts across northern Europe may be disappointed with this forecast, many people will probably welcome a break after last year's harsh winter.

Posted Image

Farther south, Bastardi expects near-normal temperatures from southern England into the northern Europe mainland and colder-than-normal conditions from Italy and the Alps into the Balkans, Ukraine and southern Russia.

It is this zone from Italy and the Alps into southern Russia where the core of the nastiest part of winter will reside. Along with colder-than-normal temperatures, above-normal snowfall is anticipated in this region.

Southern Poland, the Czech Republic, Greece, Turkey, southern Russia, Italy and much of Switzerland are included in this cold, snowy zone.

While not as extreme farther west, people in cities such as Paris, Madrid and Lisbon can expect this winter to be colder than last year's. Slightly below-normal temperatures and near or slightly above-average snowfall are predicted.

Across northern Europe, snowfall and temperatures are expected to average closer to normal in London, while areas toward Glasgow and Dublin experience slightly above-average temperatures and snowfall just a little below normal.

Even warmer and less snowy conditions compared to normal can be expected farther east across northern Europe, including northern Russia, Latvia, Estonia and much of Scandinavia.

Just proves that AccuWeather., forecasts should be taken with a grain of salt..... h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e
Edited by Audi-Tek, October 21 2011, 03:17 PM.
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Weather Services International: Cold Period Expected in UK and Western Europe
Cold Anticipated to be Less Extreme than Past Two Winters



Posted Image



Andover, MA, October 24, 2011 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects temperatures for the upcoming period (November-January) to average lower than normal across the UK and western mainland with above-normal temperatures common across the eastern mainland, Southeast Europe and most of the Nordic region.

There are numerous indications that the cold will not be as extreme as it was during the last two winters,” said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. “The current state of the Northern Hemispheric oceans is almost identical to that observed in October 2008, which was only a moderately cold winter. Further, we have finally emerged from the unusually long lull in solar activity that likely contributed to the extreme nature of recent winters. Lastly, the multi-year tendency towards North Atlantic atmospheric blocking has already waned a bit in 2011, relative to the previous three years. This indicates that the atmosphere is likely regressing back to the mean a bit from the recent and persistent anomalous state. So, while we do expect another cold winter across UK and Western Europe, we think that the winter will be much closer to 2008-09 than 2010-11. Further, we think that the worst of the cold across Western Europe will be in December and January, and that the back-half of winter could be significantly milder.”

In November, WSI sees the monthly breakdown as:

Nordic Region* – Warmer than normal
UK * – Colder than normal
Northern Mainland* – Warmer than normal, except western France
Southern Mainland *– Warmer than normal

In December, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
UK – Colder than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, colder than normal west
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, colder than normal west

In January, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
UK – Colder than normal
Northern Mainland – Colder than normal
Southern Mainland – Colder than normal, except southeastern Europe and southern Iberia

WSI, providing customized weather information to energy traders, will issue its next seasonal outlook on 21 November.

*To view the map defining WSI’s European regions, click here.

About Weather Services International
Weather Services International is the world's leading provider of weather-driven business solutions for professionals in the energy, aviation and media markets, as well as multiple federal and state government agencies. WSI is a member of The Weather Channel Companies and is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts with offices in Birmingham, England. The Weather Channel Companies are owned by a consortium made up of NBC Universal and the private equity firms The Blackstone Group and Bain Capital.

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Christmas 2011: Possibly rather cold.


Forecast issued .... Update 9, 23/10/2011.



Forecast
Our ninth update makes no change to the chance of Christmas snow this year. The weather patterns during October have often been blocked, and there are some suggestions this indicates an increased likelihood of a cold winter, but possibly not a front loaded one. The current forecast is for rather unsettled weather with slightly below average temperatures, giving a chance of sleet or snow in the north, and possibly more widely over high ground.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 30%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 25%

http://theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/Christmas-weather-forecast
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The CFS probability charts are now going for a WELL BELOW average temperature for December and January



Posted Image
Edited by Audi-Tek, October 25 2011, 06:03 PM.
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The Sun And The Winter Of 2011
Monday, 10 October 2011 00:01 Dr. David Whitehouse


I’ve said it before. If you are not confused about the Sun’s role in global and regional climate variations, you haven’t been paying attention.

The latest manifestation of the Sun-climate debate takes place in the pages of Nature Geoscience (paywall), here and here. The UK Met Office also issued a press release on the subject a few days ago.

The conclusion is that the Sun’s low activity, in particular its low ultraviolet (UV) output, is influencing the stratosphere in such a way as to produce unusually cold winters in parts of Europe, including the UK.

“Our research confirms the observed link between solar variability and regional winter climate,” lead author Sarah Ineson of the UK Met Office told Reuters.

The press has reported that Ineson’s team focused on data from the recent solar minimum which was during 2008-10, a period of unusual calm for the sun and intense, record-breaking winters in the UK.

Using computer models they found that when they introduced a reduction in UV radiation from the sun it can affect high-altitude wind patterns in the Northern Hemisphere, triggering cold winters. When solar UV radiation is stronger, the opposite occurs, the researchers say.

More study is clearly needed. It’s preliminary work and, of course, based on computer modeling and all the limitations implied in that. The data only spanned a few years. "So questions remain concerning both accuracy and also applicability to other solar cycles," Ineson said.

But then, in my view, these caveats are ignored and the usefulness of this work taken too far. “While UV levels won't tell us what the day-to-day weather will do, they provide the exciting prospect of improved forecasts for winter conditions for months and even years ahead. These forecasts play an important role in long-term contingency planning,” Ineson said.

El Nino As Well

Low solar UV radiation is not the only factor that the Met Office believes can cause severe UK winters. In 2008 its climate scientists “confirmed” links between the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the weather over Europe in late-winter.

A letter, also in Nature Geoscience, explained how they had used computer models. Then Sarah Ineson said, “we have shown evidence of an active stratospheric role in the transition to cold conditions in northern Europe and mild conditions in southern Europe in late-winter during El Nino years."

The problem with this “confirmation” was demonstrated rather dramatically the very next year.

In October 2009 the Met Office predicted a mild winter because of El Nino. Temperatures in December would be above average, they said. In reality December temperatures were a whopping 1.1 degrees below the recent average.

The Sun’s Influence This Coming Winter

There are other problems with the Met Office’s latest research.

Firstly, it refers to 2008-2010 when the Sun’s activity was low, and the UK experienced three severe winters in succession. The problem is that the activity of the Sun as we enter the UK 2011 winter is not the same as it was in the past few years.

Posted Image

Solar activity is back to what it was in 2004-5, and we didn’t experience severe winters in those years, see here, and here, and here.

So, if anything, the logic behind this particular piece of research points towards the Winter of 2011 being a mild one!

I don’t believe that this latest research increases the probability of a severe UK winter this year. It will be interesting to see what happens.

UV Or Not UV

The other problem concerns recent, highly publicised, research by Joanna Haigh of Imperial College London, a co-author on the current Nature Geoscience paper.

Her work rests on the fairly recent observations that show that solar UV and optical radiation vary in anti-phase – although the figures are not totally rock solid, it seems that when solar optical radiation is low the UV is high and that UV varies to a greater degree than previously suspected. This led to headlines all over the world that when the sun goes through a decrease of activity, such as the slide towards solar minimum, it might actually be warming the earth.

So, on the one hand we have research that suggests that during the last solar minimum, 2008 – 10, low solar UV resulted in cold European winters. On the other hand we have research that suggests that during the same solar minimum enhanced UV may have actually provided a warming effect!

But what does this tell us about the forthcoming winter? Will it be mild or severe?

Place You Bets

We in the UK have had three very severe winters, 2008, 2009 and 2010. The big question is, is it a coincidence?

The Met Office is in a quandary. It has to advise the UK government on winter preparations. Politically it can’t afford to get it wrong again this year. Despite what it said in retrospect last year’s predictions were a disaster.

In 2010, contributing to the Quarmby Report the Met Office said,

2.10. We have explored these issues in some depth with the climate research team at the Met Office Hadley Centre. The starting point is the slow but steady rise in average global temperatures. The consensus on the UK is that on average summers will become warmer, and winters will become warmer and wetter, though the next 10–15 years may be dominated by natural variability. When severe weather events happen they may be more extreme in terms of heat and rainfall.

12.11. Although the probability of severely cold winters in the UK is gradually declining, there is currently no evidence to suggest similar changes in extremes of snow, winds and storms in the UK.

12.12. We have also explored whether or not the occurrence of two successive severe winters influences the probability of a third in succession – in other words, is there any evidence of clustering? There is some small influence from year to year but these matters are still very uncertain and it would be safer to assume that there is statistical independence between one winter and the next.

12.13. In other words, we are advised to assume that the chance of a severe winter in 2010–11 is no greater (or less) than the current general probability of 1 in 20.

Boy, were they wrong!

Mean temperatures over the UK were 5.0 °C below average during December and 0.3 °C below average in January.

In April this year the Met Office told me, when pressed, that, after a third severe winter, they still believed that they were not connected. They said there was currently a 1 in 8 chance of a fourth severe winter in 2011. They were unimpressed with my view that the chances of three consecutive 1 in 8 chances was a 1 in 512 if the events were truly independent.

Four independent 1 in 8 severe winters has a probability of 1 in 4096 which is way outside the bounds of chance. (In the Quarmby report they say that the probability of a severe winter was 1 in 20. Four years at 1 in 20 gives a 1 in 160,000 chance.)

Predictions, they say, are difficult, especially about the future. Just over ten years ago we were warned that snow in the UK would become a thing of the past. Within a few years Dr David Viner of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia said winter snowfall will become "a rare and exciting event."

A decade later snow is now more of a problem than ever, despite global warming. The fact is that nobody knows if the forthcoming winter will be severe or mild. The only wise advice that can be given is to plan as if 2011 is going to be like the previous three winters, and one doesn’t need multi-million pound computers to make it.

Link to above post ....... http://www.thegwpf.org/the-observatory/4063-the-sun-and-the-winter-of-2011.html
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Severe weather campaign launched as Scotland prepares for wintery conditions

Oct 24 2011 By Lynsey Bews


Posted Image
A CAMPAIGN has been launched to encourage people to prepare for another winter of severe weather.


The Scottish Government has joined with the British Red Cross to urge the public and businesses to get ready for the possibility of a repeat of last year's ice and snow.


The campaign follows research which shows the majority of people are concerned about the prospect of severe weather.


A survey commissioned by the government found that half of Scots said they are concerned about the impact that extreme weather might have on them and their community.


Three out of five of the more than 1,000 respondents said they did not feel they were properly prepared for periods of severe weather like heavy snow, a prolonged freeze or flooding.


The campaign offers information and advice on the steps that can be taken to reduce the risks caused by adverse conditions.


Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill, who has responsibility for resilience issues, said: "No-one can say with any certainty what this winter might bring, but after the severe weather conditions we experienced in the past two years, we have worked with all our partners in the public, private and voluntary sector to learn the lessons, and improve and invest in our services so that we are in a position to hope for the best but prepare for the worst.


"The evidence of the last two winters has shown that individuals and communities are stronger when they help themselves and help others.


"We also know that people want to be better prepared for whatever conditions they might have to face, and are looking for advice and information to help them get ready for winter.


"That's why we have been delighted to link up with the British Red Cross to deliver this first-ever severe weather preparedness campaign, which will also involve Scottish councils and a wide range of other partners."


He added: "This is about letting people know that there are small but sensible steps they can take now that will help individuals and families cope if extreme weather hits their communities, allowing them to continue their day-to-day lives with as little disruption and discomfort as possible."


Norman McKinley, director of the British Red Cross in Scotland, added: "If everyone asks themselves how prepared they are in the home, on the road and in the community, and takes steps to prepare for the season ahead, the problems of winter can be greatly reduced."


Link ...... http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/2011/10/24/severe-weather-campaign-launched-as-scotland-prepares-for-wintery-conditions-86908-23511683/
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Winter weather - early thoughts & discussion
Netweather's long range forecaster Stewart Rampling gives his early thoughts for the Winter of 2011/12 as he prepares for the full Winter forecast which will be issued in November. This fairly technical video goes into some detail about some of the indicators that Stewart expects to drive and shape the weather patterns during the upcoming winter. You can also view the powerpoint presentation beneath the video player.
Please Note - This isn't a forecast, it is purely an explanation of Stewart's preliminary/early thoughts and a discussion piece.

Link.... https://docs.google.com/present/view?id=dc2724pn_77hrnndqwk

Video link........... http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-thoughts-2011;sess=


Key Points:

Some conflicting signals
February potentially the coldest month
Likely to be drier than average overall

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I hate this waiting for new forecast updates ... -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn :( :( zzzzzzzz zzzzzzzz p-o-pc-o-rn -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k
Edited by Audi-Tek, October 25 2011, 09:57 PM.
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October 25 2011, 09:47 PM
I hate this waiting for new forecast updates ... -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn :( :( zzzzzzzz zzzzzzzz p-o-pc-o-rn -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k
Patience audi patience t-on--gu-e
A rose must remain with the sun and the rain or its lovely promise won't come true.
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http://mycountdown.org/Holiday/Christmas/




Still plenty of time to dream of a white Christmas... t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn
Edited by Audi-Tek, October 26 2011, 12:28 AM.
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London Forecast to Have a Milder Winter, AccuWeather Says
Oct 27, 2011 5:00 AM GMT


The coming London winter won’t be a repeat of last year’s cold and snowy season, according to Alan Reppert, a senior meteorologist with AccuWeather Inc.

Temperatures in London will be closer to the normal 5.6 degrees Celsius (42 Fahrenheit), and there should be about 140 millimeters of rain, the average, Reppert said in a statement from the State College, Pennsylvania-based forecaster.

“London won’t be having a white winter,” AccuWeather said. “The warmer weather will help to make for much less snow than what was seen last year over the U.K., and also a much later start to winter than was seen last year.”

Last year, areas just outside the city received 300 millimeters (12 inches) of snow and temperatures were about 4.2 degrees below normal, AccuWeather said. Snow fell in London in November.

Elsewhere in Europe, Germany will start out with temperatures around zero, which is normal, and milder weather is expected as the season wears on, according to AccuWeather.

“Germany can expect a mundane winter,” the company said. “There will be mainly rain close to the coast and snow in most of central and southern Germany.”

Spain and Portugal will be dry as a summer drought extends into the winter, raising the risk of wildfires, according to AccuWeather. The mountains of Italy should receive significant snow, with the weather becoming mild by the second half of the season.

France is expected to have a normal start to the season and a mild second half, AccuWeather said.


p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k :( :( -ma-d- -ma-d- -il-l- -il-l- p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn -c-h-i-n ???
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Holyrood diary: Shotts MSP Alex Neil

Oct 26 2011 by Euan McLelland, Wishaw Press .


TWO scientists have recently told me this winter is going to be the worst in 200 years – and even more severe than last winter.

Chilling news, indeed, if it turns out to be an accurate forecast, highlighting the need for everybody to be well prepared for really cold weather.

However, a third of households in Scotland are very worried about how they’re going to pay their heating bills this winter, even if it isn’t the worst in 200 years.

zzzzzzzz zzzzzzzz Yea right...and and the sun will also freeze... h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e


Link to post...... http://www.wishawpress.co.uk/wishaw-news/local-wishaw-news/wishaw-news/2011/10/26/holyrood-diary-shotts-msp-alex-neil-76495-29657776/
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FACTBOX-The NAO forecast to bring Europe a colder winter

28 Oct 2011 15:08

Source: reuters // Reuters

LONDON/FRANKFURT Oct 28 (Reuters) - Britain and western Europe are expected to see below average temperatures this winter as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) continues to dominate countries with exposure to the Atlantic Ocean, weather specialists said.

The NAO is the dominant mode of winter climate variability in the North Atlantic region, which ranges from central North America to Europe.

The NAO is considered positive when pressures and heights are below normal over Greenland and Iceland (strong Icelandic low) and above normal at middle and subtropical latitudes (strong Bermuda-Azores high) -- and negative for the reverse anomalies.

The NAO has largely been negative during the past three winter seasons, causing cold and wet winters along Europe's Atlantic and North Sea coasts and wetter, windier weather across the Iberian Peninsula and Italy as westerly winds from the Atlantic are pushed South.

Most meteorologists expect it to dip again this winter.

The NAO has been positive in September and October, but it has begun to dip in recent days and has entered negative territory, according to data from the US National Weather Service.

Below is a summary of European seasonal weather forecasts:

POINT CARBON

Point Carbon, a sister company of Thomson Reuters, said it expected the first parts of the coming winter to be cooler than average.

Later on in winter, the weather is likely to be changeable, with a possibility of milder than average weather.

"The second half of November and the first half of December could be cooler than normal," said Point Carbon's Georg Mueller.

From January onwards, the weather could be more unsettled, wetter and milder than normal especially in northern Europe, while central Europe could trend towards a high pressure influence and calmer weather, according to Point Carbon.

WORLD CLIMATE SERVICE (WCS)

WCS said it expected the coming winter to be dominated by a negative phase of the NAO, resulting in colder, dryer, and less windy than average weather on the British Isles, in France, Germany, and the Nordic and Baltic countries.

Mediterranean countries should expect a mild, windy and wet winter.

"We expect another winter of unusual cold and occasionally disruptive snow from the British Isles and France across Germany and southern Scandinavia to the Baltic states," Richard James, senior meteorologist at WCS said.

"The highest likelihood of unusual cold appears to be in early to mid-winter (late November to January), with moderating conditions possible by February. Wet conditions will prevail in southern and southeastern Europe, but it will be generally dry in the north."

WCS also said that said that the negative NAO was likely to be a phenomenon that would dominate Europe's winters for years to come.

"There are definitely decadal trends, and there is a chance that there could be a long negative NAO phase," James said, and added: "the last time we saw such a phase was in the 1950s and '60s", which was a period that dominated by cold winters in Europe.

WEATHER SERVICES INTERNATIONAL (WSI)

WSI, which specialises in weather information for use in the energy sector, said it expected temperatures until December to be below average in the UK and western European mainland, while the eastern mainland, Southeast Europe and most of the Nordic region will be warmer than average.

"The high-latitude atmospheric blocking regime, as manifested by the negative phase of the NAO, is expected to dominate the pattern again across Europe during late autumn and early winter," said WSI Chief Meteorologist Todd Crawford.

However, Crawford also said that he did not expect this winter to be as cold as the previous two.

"We don't expect a very cold winter this year," he said, adding that it could be more like the winter of 2008/2009, which brought below-average temperatures but was slightly warmer than the following two winters.

THE WEATHER OUTLOOK (TWO)

TWO said it expected autumn 2011 weather conditions in Britain to be mixed and at times stormy but possibly with "a wintry sting" during November.

Until the end of November, "temperatures are forecast to be close to average, although with a slight bias towards colder than average conditions," TWO said.

TWO also said it expected overall autumn precipitation amounts to be close to or slightly above the average, although it also said that significant regional variations were expected across Britain.

EXACTA WEATHER

Exacta weather said it expected November, December, January, and February to feature largely below-average temperatures across many parts of the UK.

"I expect the most frequent and heavy snowfalls to occur across many parts of the UK during November, December, and January," Exacta Weather's James Madden said.

POSITIVE WEATHER SOLUTIONS (PWS)

PWS said it expected November for most UK regions to be slightly drier than the norm and temperatures to approach average in the south-east, but turn out milder across some western and northern regions.

For the continental European regions of France, Germany and Switzerland, PWS said it expected temperatures to be cooler than average between October 2011 and February 2012.

"The last month of autumn looks rather variable, with dry and damper influences each trying to predominate," PWS's Ray Anthony said. (Compiled by Henning Gloystein and Philip Baillie in London, and Vera Eckert in Frankfurt, editing by Jane Baird)

-c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn -c-h-i-n t-on--gu-e -c-o-o-l -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn -c-h-i-n

Link ....... http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/factbox-the-nao-forecast-to-bring-europe-a-colder-winter
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Better Winter Ahead for the United Kingdom


Posted Image



Good news for residents of the United Kingdom worried about the coming winter weather. "This year's winter is not going to be nearly as cold or snowy as last year," AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert said.

Still, it's time to pull out your scarves and winter coats.

Reppert is forecasting that the coldest air of the season will blow into the U.K. in November and early December. By mid-December, Londoners will get a break from the cold, unlike what they experienced last year. In December 2010, London temperatures were 4.2 degrees C (7.5 degrees F) below normal. This year, temperatures will hover near normal, around 5.6 degrees C (42 degrees F).

In addition to the early bitter cold, higher elevations in England and Scotland will have above-normal snowfall in the beginning of the season. Unlike last year, there won't be snowfall in southern parts of Wales and England. In London, Reppert expects that precipitation totals will be close to normal. On average, the city gets around 140 mm (5.5 inches) of precipitation during winter.

Later in the season, a persistent high pressure area will build over the region. High pressure systems typically push in dry and warmer air that brings good weather. Temperatures will be above average. The end of winter will be dry. Not much snow will fall on the islands in January and February, even in the mountains.

By AccuWeather.com Staff Writer Grace Muller
Updated: Friday, October 28, 2011 11:40 AM

p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k -il-l- -ma-d- p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k -ma-d- -ma-d- :( p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn

Link ......... http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&article=0
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Cold Start to Winter for Europe: Winter Forecast
Oct 28, 2011; 2:03 PM ET


Posted Image

The United Kingdom

Last year in the U.K., winter started quickly, with snow reaching as far south as London in November. This was a dramatic contrast to typical winters; Londoners typically don't see much snow. However last year, many locations had close to 300 mm (a foot) or more of snow.

AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert expects that precipitation totals will be close to normal this year for London. On average, the city gets around 140 mm (5.5 inches) of precipitation.

London won't be having a white winter. This year, London will have its share of precipitation, but temperatures will be warm enough that it should fall as rain. Rain will also fall farther north of the city, through northern England, and Scotland will get snow.

As for cold, Londoners will get a break from the bitterness they experienced last year. In December 2010, London temperatures were 4.2 degrees C (7.5 degrees F) below normal. This year, temperatures will hover around normal, around 5.6 degrees C (42 degrees F).

The warmer weather "will help to make for much less snow than what was seen last year over the U.K., and also a much later start to winter than was seen last year," stated Reppert.

Reppert expects warmer temperatures toward the end of winter.

(Correction: The article originally stated that London Heathrow reported "about 13 mm (half an inch) of snow during the winter of 2010-2011" but it was based on bad data. The Telegraph reported that "Heathrow received between 5 to 6 inches of snow.")

Posted Image

Germany

Germany can expect a mundane winter. There will be mainly rain close to the coast and snow in most of central and southern areas.

Early in the season, the temperatures will be close to normal or slightly below the normal of 0 degrees C (32 degrees F). By the end of winter, milder weather will push in from the south, bringing temperatures up as spring approaches.


Spain and Portugal

The summer's drought and warm weather will continue on the Iberian Peninsula. The dry weather raises concern over wildfires because "any storms that move into the north over the winter could bring some stronger winds and more fire problems," Reppert said.


Italy

The great news for skiers: The winter sport season will start strong in the Alps in northern Italy and for some of the Apennines in central areas. The mountains will get heavy, above-average snowfall early in the season.

The bad news for skiers: It won't last. Mild weather will raise temperatures later in the season, and snowfall will be diminished at lower elevations. Even some of the snowiest mountains in the Alps won't get much snow in the second half of winter.

Higher elevations from Italy through the Black Sea could get above-normal snowfall with the cooler, wetter pattern expected.

As for lower elevations in Italy, Reppert expects to have normal or above-normal temperatures, with a dry end to winter.


France

France should have a typical start to winter, with temperatures averaging around 5 to 7 degrees C (low 40s F). Later in the season, the weather will get warmer and drier, such as in much of the rest of Europe. This will keep most of the Pyrenees mountains dry.

Posted Image

Greece

Last year, temperatures in southeastern Europe were well above normal. This kept most of the snow out of the mountains of Greece and the higher elevations of the countries of southern Europe. This year, however, colder weather will bring snowier weather.

This year's wet weather will be similar to last year's wet weather in the vicinity of Athens, Greece. Athens doubled its normal rainfall of 170 mm (6.7 inches) between December 2010 and February 2011.

In 2010, the city was drenched, with 150-200 percent of its normal annual rainfall. While precipitation will likely still be above normal for rainfall and snowfall, totals will fall short of last year's extremes.


Poland and Russia

From Poland into western Russia, expect slightly warmer temperatures. The warm air will cut down on snowfall early in the season. However, Reppert said he expects a few storms to come through from the middle of the season on that produce snow, likely bringing totals up to normal.
By Grace Muller, AccuWeather.com staff writer .

p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k :( :( :( -il-l- -il-l- -il-l- -ma-d- -ma-d- -ma-d- p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k ??? p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n
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Horror Winter” to hit Central Europe, say German meteorologists.

October 24, 2011
“The German online Bild newspaper projects another bitter cold winter ahead for Central Europe,” says this article by P. Gosselin. “The real cold will not arrive until the end of November – but then look out!”

“In four weeks the Horror-Winter begins!”

“Bild quotes meteorologist Dominik Jung of www.wetter.net/:

“For Germany the fourth colder-than-normal winter in a row lies ahead. The fourth below-normal winter in a row would be a small sensation.”

Wetter.net predicts that temperatures will plummet in January, and that the month will be “considerably colder” than normal. “Central Europeans can expect to see temperatures as low as -25°C.”

February will also be colder than normal, says Jung. “Snow will fall until the end of the month, and possibly drag on into March.”

“Note that these forecasts predict snow and ice for the normally temperate lowlands.”

“Just a few years ago the drugged-up climatologists were predicting the end of skiing in the Alps.”

“Remember being told that snow in the future would be “rare and exciting” and how we’d all have to move to Antarctica to escape the heat?”

See entire article:
http://notrickszone.com/2011/10/24/german-meteorologists-horror-winter-to-hit-central-europe/

Himm ..Thats for Central Europe..what about in our neck of the woods.. -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n
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Posted Image



Good news for residents of the United Kingdom worried about the coming winter weather. "This year's winter is not going to be nearly as cold or snowy as last year," AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert said.

Still, it's time to pull out your scarves and winter coats.

Reppert is forecasting that the coldest air of the season will blow into the U.K. in November and early December. By mid-December, Londoners will get a break from the cold, unlike what they experienced last year. In December 2010, London temperatures were 4.2 degrees C (7.5 degrees F) below normal. This year, temperatures will hover near normal, around 5.6 degrees C (42 degrees F).

In addition to the early bitter cold, higher elevations in England and Scotland will have above-normal snowfall in the beginning of the season. Unlike last year, there won't be snowfall in southern parts of Wales and England. In London, Reppert expects that precipitation totals will be close to normal. On average, the city gets around 140 mm (5.5 inches) of precipitation during winter.

Later in the season, a persistent high pressure area will build over the region. High pressure systems typically push in dry and warmer air that brings good weather. Temperatures will be above average. The end of winter will be dry. Not much snow will fall on the islands in January and February, even in the mountains.

By AccuWeather.com Staff Writer Grace Muller
Updated: Sunday, October 30, 2011 12:42 PM.. p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn zzzzzzzz zzzzzzzz
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Piers Corbyn going for immense cold and snow from end Nov - end Dec.


Link to Video.......... http://youtu.be/MGVzZvX4J6U

0-m-g- 0-m-g- h-e-h-e h-e-h-e p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e 0-m-g- -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e
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UK Winter Forecast 2011-12 (Final Outlook)

Some major indifferences amongst many forecasters about what this winter has in store for us at present.

The 2010/11 UK winter mean temperature (December, January, February) was -1.3c below average, with widespread heavy snowfall throughout November and December across many parts of the UK, as I originally forecast. Although my winter forecast also held true in terms of a below average winter as a whole for temperature, February actually saw a return to much milder conditions, that recorded a mean Central England Temperature (CET) anomaly of +2.6c. I did state in my January update that the stage the La Niña had reached, may influence some much needed and welcomed weather, which I originally underestimated in some of my much earlier forecasts. Even though I did forecast the return of La Niña conditions for 2011/12 earlier on in the year, a key aspect that I emphasised strongly on, was that the La Niña would not be as strong this time around.

I have fairly high confidence at this stage, that we will experience a much more prolonged period of increased jet-stream blocking in comparison to last year. This will bring frequent and widespread heavy snowfalls during November to January across many parts of the UK and Ireland, with below-average temperatures for the meteorological winter of 2011/12 as a whole. Of course there will be some moderation at times with geographical variations, but the overall theme for this winter will be very cold and snowy across many parts of the UK and Ireland. This is a logical conclusion based on the parameters I consider within my forecasts, any snowfall or temperature records broken within this defined time frame (November to February) or for the winter as a whole will be posted accordingly.

Earlier forecasts that offered specific locations are based on a different set of parameters and historical data, and are intended as a general insight. As to how a weather pattern can actually unfold a few days before is somewhat different, and I certainly can't claim to have the technology or finances to monitor these short range situations, as well as other leading and well funded organisations. I can however make the best of the resources I have available to me, with the integration of the major natural factors that I have studied in depth and consider within my forecasting analysis, to offer a fairly reasonable and reliable account of the weather patterns that are likely to unfold for a defined time period (several months in advance) and just as I have done over the past few years. Further updates will therefore follow and become more location and date specific as we head into and progress through winter. I will also be adding a review section to the Exacta Weather website shortly, to review the accuracy of forecasts issued in my own words, and not those of unauthorised publications.

Meteorological winter 2011/12

December 2011

Below average temperatures and heavy snowfall is likely across many parts of the UK.

January 2012

Below average temperatures and heavy snowfall is likely across many parts of the UK

February 2012

Below average temperatures and moderate to heavy snowfall is likely across parts of the UK

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

ExactaWeather.com

Published: 30th October 2011 (23:27) GMT


0-m-g- 0-m-g- t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e
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Seasonal outlook - October 31, 2011
A cold outlook
Possibly milder Christmas

Issued: Monday 31st October 2011
Duty forecasters: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob


*December*
There appears to be some indication of lower pressure to the north or northeast, higher pressure vales to the west or southwest, this suggests a rather chilly run of northwest to northerly air to begin the first 'meteorological' month of winter.
This rather chilly regime should weaken as the cold flow is cut off as pressure rises as a weak high or ridge crosses the UK, the flow behind switching to a less cold westerly. Into the middle of the month the Atlantic seems to have the controlling influence, so temperatures recovering with spells of rain for all areas and windy conditions at times.
As we move away from the mid-month period there is evidence to suggest that pressure will be rising once more, so conditions should settle and temperatures falling back to become rather chilly, mist, fog and frost perhaps becoming a persistent problem.
The run up to Christmas is where the forecasting becomes 'problematic' and 'interesting' as the evidence suggests that high pressure may become stubbornly entrenched to the east or northeast, Atlantic low pressure piling up as a blocked and complex feature to the west and south west, a strengthening and cold south-easterly to perhaps easterly component wind establishing. This threatening some wintry precipitation as frontal systems move into the UK, I have a 'gut' feeling that Atlantic will eventually win the battle with milder conditions flooding through over Christmas. It will however be 'extremely messy', colder weather returning as the year closes.
If I ignore this feeling and 'stick rigidly' to the pattern in front of me then, the cold weather persists and it'll remain very cold and wintry through until the end of the month, low pressure moving into a very cold pool of air, over the UK with further wintry precipitation for all areas.

*January*
It's a cold start to 2012 with low pressure edging away to the east, a cold northerly flow covering all regions, wintry showers beginning to die away as pressure rises and an anticyclone builds through the UK, settling the weather in a cold and still pattern.
High pressure persists for a time as does the settled and chilly weather, this anticyclone shows signs of pulling back westward into the central Atlantic, allowing a more unsettled northwest to westerly flow to establish across all areas in the run up to mid-month, low pressure then moving into the UK, rather unsettled cold and windy, a real messy scenario with spells of rain, sleet and some wintry precipitation too almost anywhere.
The middle of the month looks like seeing colder weather for all areas and with low pressure wrapped up within the pattern, this may lead to a rather wintry spell for all areas during this middle period. This rather chilly and wintry mix continue right through until the latter stages of the month, when the flow looks likely to ease as pressure rises to the southwest with milder westerly regime establishing.
However this recovery in terms of both temperature and fortune may be temporary as colder air looks likely to flood back into the UK late in the month.

-c-h-i-n -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn
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LONG RANGE
Monday 31 October, 2011

Mark Vogan's Official 2011-2012 United Kingdom & Europe Winter Forecast

UK TO FACE 3RD STRAIGHT WINTER WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY, CRIPPLING SNOW AND SEVERE COLD, WORST OF WINTER CONTINENTWIDE TO BE CENTRED OVER SCANDINAVIA

Posted Image

UK WINTER HIGHLIGHTS

DECEMBER
PERIOD BETWEEN DECEMBER 15-20TH HERALDS THE ONSET OF INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AND COLDER WEATHER FROM OFF THE CONTINENT

The past two winters have seen heavy snow followed by harsh cold prior to Christmas with 2009 seeing Pre-Christmas travel chaos.

Unfortunately, I can see a repeat of both heavy, widespread snow and cold leading up to Christmas 2011 as a building Arctic air mass fills Scandinavia with this process commencing around the start of December.

As December progresses after a relatively mild, wet and unsettled start, like in 2009, I am most concerned about the period around the 15th through 20th as I believe we'll start to see the expanding cold over Norway and Sweden start to migrate westwards as a Greenland Block sets up.

With the continued influence from Atlantic weather systems and the approach of Arctic or certainly colder air from off the continent sets up a wild battleground in which heavy rain turns to heavy snow.

Posted Image

A WHITE CHRISTMAS LOOKS LIKELY FOR LARGE PARTS OF THE UNITED KINGDOM

Given my expectations with the arrival of cold air from Scandinavia combined with the continued active Atlantic-Driven pattern we've been seeing through October, I feel that it's highly possible that the collision between moist maritime air with Polar/Arctic air masses coming out of Scandinavia will result in widespread snowfall and coverage across most of the UK and even Ireland by December 25 and snowfalls may continue in the week leading up to New Year, if not, bitter cold will then dominate.

JANUARY
The tough later part of December will set the stage for what may be a severe first 10 to 15 days of January as a strong NEGATIVE NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation & AO (Arctic Oscillation) firmly establishes itself with deep troughs filled with increasingly bitter Arctic air centred from the UK eastwards to Germany.

Bitterly cold Arctic air may keep us shivering from around New Year through the early part of January once the Atlantic door is shut and Arctic High Pressure settles in. High pressure brings very sunny days, lighter winds but with widespread and possibly deep snow cover, the coldest days and nights of winter will settle in.
Forecast Highs & Lows for a Selection of UK Towns and Cities

Inverness High: -4 to -8C Low: -10 to -18C

Glasgow High: -4 to -8C Low: -12 to -20C

Edinburgh High: -4 to -8C Low: -12 to -20C

M'chester High: -3 to -6C Low: -9 to -18C

Birm'ham High: -3 to -6C Low: -8 to -17C

London High: -2 to -4C Low: -7 to -12C

I believe it's possible that during the period of harshest cold, we may see large swaths of of the UK outside of towns and cities which struggle to see highs much warmer than -6 to -10C and nights beneath clear skies, light winds, widespread snowcover and a bitter Arctic air mass in place, lows may dip to -20C or colder as far south as the outer edges of London.

Such areas of Bensen, Oxfordshire, Shap, Cumbria and a selection of Highland cold hallows, we may see lows dip to between -21 and -25C and a possible 2 or two nights taking a run at the UK record of -27C which was recorded at both Altnaharra, Sutherland and Braemar, Aberdeenshire.

Posted Image

After a brutal first two weeks of January throughout the UK and Ireland, I believe we will see the easing of the truly severe cold as the Greenland block breaks down and the core of cold begins to migrate east towards eastern Europe. Milder Atlantic air will allow us to recover but by then, the damage will be done as many bodies of water including the Clyde, parts of the Forth, Loch Lomond as well as countless lakes and rivers across England and Wales as well as Ireland will be frozen. Coastal harbours, bays and 1-2 mile stretches of sea may see icing. Burst pipes will also become a big problem once again.

FEBRUARY & MARCH

I believe, though the worst of winter's cold and snow will be behind us come mid-January, return blasts of snow followed by cold is highly possible, similar to what we encountered back in February and March of 2011.

EUROPE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS

PERIOD FROM DECEMBER 1 ONWARDS SEES THE ARRIVAL OF BRUTAL ARCTIC AIR WHICH WILL BEGIN TO FLOOD NORWAY, SWEDEN AND FINLAND

Winter's brutal, icy face will begin to unviel itself as December commences as lobes of frozen air drive south from the pole down across Scandinavia.

This brutal cold air mass will intensify over northern areas first then central areas and eventually southern Norway, Sweden and Finland by around December 15th. At this time, the cold air will start to bleed south and west over Germany into France as well as the Low Countries of Belgium and Netherlands and like the UK, Atlantic air will mix with this increasingly colder air, setting up large, widespread snowfalls across a large part of the western continent. A white Christmas will be likely across northern (possibly central France) across the Low Countries, Denmark, much of Germany as well as over the Alpine countries of Austria and Switzerland.

The presence of cloud and snow in the air will keep the cold temperatures moderated from December 15-18th through possibly New Year but as the Arctic high begins to migrate south and west from northern and central Sweden down across northern France, Low Countries and the UK will we see the temperatures turn very cold.

From Denmark down through Belgium, Netherlands, France eastwards through Germany we will see the harshest cold of winter settle in on the same time frame as the UK with potentially record cold possible.

By the same time the UK begins to moderate, so too will the western half of mainland Europe.

The core of cold will shift east and after a relatively mild December, early part of January for Poland on east into Turkey north through Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Russia and the Baltic nations. From mid-January through February, like last winter, we'll see the eastern half of Europe shiver in it's toughest part of winter.

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Why is cloud 9 so amazing ? What is wrong with cloud 8 ?
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Audi-Tek
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Prince
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Christmas weather forecast 2011 (TWO)
Christmas 2011: Colder in the south?
Christmas weather forecast introduction

Forecast
Our tenth update reduces the chance of Christmas snow in the north and increases it in the south. The weather patterns during October have often been blocked, and there are some suggestions this indicates an increased likelihood of a cold winter, but possibly not a front loaded one. The current forecast is for a risk of colder conditions during the Christmas period, with a chance of a south easterly component in the flow.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 27%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 27%


Link to weather chatroom...... http://client16.addonchat.com/chat.php?id=503728
Edited by Audi-Tek, October 31 2011, 11:48 PM.
Why is cloud 9 so amazing ? What is wrong with cloud 8 ?
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coldfront
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Thanks for all the updates.... still none the wiser as to what to expect which makes it all the more interesting! Seems a fairly even split between all the forecasters.....
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Mid November change – heads up
Posted Tue, 01 Nov 2011 07:40:18

Much too early to be confident about this, but there are signs of a significant change in the weather as we head towards mid November. The current mild weather is being caused by a high pressure block to our east which is keeping us under a predominantly south westerly flow, with drier conditions in the east, and plenty of rain in the north west. It’s looking as though the high pressure area could become centred further north and west, with the flow of Atlantic weather sinking further south and east. If this does happen much colder air could start filtering in across the UK, either from the north or east, and the risk of snow would start to increase. It’s only a tentative possibility at the moment, but one I’ll be looking out for the in the next few weeks.
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com



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