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Are We Set For A Long, Cold Winter?
Topic Started: September 26 2011, 10:21 PM (7,109 Views)
Audi-Tek
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A list of all long range forecasters and what they think winter 2011/2012 will turn out like.

Piers Corbyn - an extreme cold period with huge snowfalls from 27th November to 28th December.

James Madden - a very severe winter with temperature and snow fall records being beaten.

Mark Vogan - cold setting in Mid December followed by an exceptionally cold January.

Brian Glaze- initial thoughts were that this Winter would be less severe but now clearly toward a very cold winter. Full Winter forecast to be issued later.

Joe Bastardi-Weather Bell - very cold but not as severe as last yeat, but more prolonged cold than last year,all winter months below average temps and high amounts of snowfall. Full forecast soon to be realeased.

AccuWeather - mild Winter with little snow.

WeatherOnline - similar to Mark Vogan with cold setting in Mid December followed by a cold January.

Met Office - no longer issue long range forecasts so they dont really count, but they have said that they dont think this winter will be as severe as everyone says its going to be.

Positive Weather Solutions - talk of an extremely cold end to the month followed by a very cold December.

NetWeather - mixed and less severe than last Winter, but still a cold winter overall for uk.

Peter o'donnel -Irish weather online has forecast a below average winter temps wise. He said december will be a mixed bag, with a few very cold snowy episodes mixed in with some milder interludes so an average decmber overall. He then said january could be very cold ,just as cold as last december but with more precipitaion so more snow. He stated that january could be 4-5 degrees below normal and seeing as january avg temp is 1 degree lower than december and december last year was 6 degrees below avg this january could be as cold as last december but even more snow. He then said feb would be mild, but then march would be quite cold with a return to wintry conditions.
Posted Image

Weather services International has said this winter will be below avg temps wise. They say itll be cold and early winter but less severe than last year. They say the worst cold and snow will be in mid november to end of december, they believe the la nina will once again be strong so they think that jan and feb will be much warmer than nov/dec like last year.Link to their forecast http://www.wsi.com/ec1c5e30-6883-47c2-bd44-ce26d03abddd/news-scheduled-forecast-archive-detail.htm

TWO weather sitting on the fence, so to speak .. http://theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=bg&id=1821 The full TWO winter forecast will be issued in late November..


The general consensus definitely seems to be in favour of atleast a very cold second half of November and whole of December, and then some forecasters also going for a very cold January and or February and maybe March.

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Using raw data from the GFS 0.5 degree model (created by the NCEP), these charts are then created using netweathers' custom software. For a far larger selection of weather charts from the GFS including regional snow risk maps take a look at , netweather extra. The snow risk maps show both the risk of snow and the likely height above sea level that snow will fall to. The snow risk is shown by colours (scale alongside when a snow risk is present) and the forecast snow level is shown by the red contour lines. The precipitation type charts show the forecast likely precipitation type as shown by the scale on the right hand side. The Snow depth charts are experimental currently and show a forecast depth of snow in centimetres.


Posted Image


Link .... http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=snow;sess=



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http://client16.addonchat.com/chat.php?id=503728 Chat room again, time to get a few in there!!!! Keep up the good work audi-tek
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http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=tmp2&HH=3&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=


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This was posted on Joe Bastardis twitter page...


Heh Europe,,, looks like blocking may be rocking early this year. Get the winter woolies ready for possible December to remember.



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Euro Winter Outlook
by Joe Bastardi
I posted a bit on this earlier, but here is what I am looking at in Europe for the heart of winter ( mid November to mid March)

A cold winter is forecast in major European areas in the north and west , with above normal snowfall, but the same wild card of blocking that affects the US would affect here too. The idea is that the winter backs off a bit in January, but with most of Europe further north than the US it comes back anyway in Feburary. The models and the analogs have major late season cold, but the models are over the south rather than the north, implying they are seeing a threat of blocking. In any case, I would plan on using as much snow and ice fighting equipment as last year and get ready to focus on the center of the continent for much of the winter, though once again the UK will remember this as a colder than normal winter, in spite of December not being as bad as last year ( if it is, then perhaps the ice age truly is coming)

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Will It Snow?




Tomorrow, 21:00 on BBC Two (except Northern Ireland (Analogue), Wales (Analogue))


Posted Image

This topical programme taps into the nation's obsession with the weather and asks whether we are heading for another 'snowmageddon' as experienced in the previous two years.

Can forecasters give us warning this time around? How does the 'olde' weather lore compare with the supercomputers? And what are we doing across Britain to prepare ourselves as we head into winter?

'Will It Snow?' predicts what another extreme cold snap would spell for Britain's economy as it puts the science of weather forecasting to the test and asks the experts what we are in store for between now and spring.

Broadcasts

Sun 6 Nov 2011
21:00
BBC Two (except Northern Ireland (Analogue), Wales (Analogue))
Sun 6 Nov 2011
21:00
BBC HD
Mon 7 Nov 2011
23:20
BBC Two (England, Wales only)
Tue 8 Nov 2011
00:20
BBC Two (Northern Ireland only)

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UK Winter Weather Forecast 2011-2012 + Warnings


UK & Northern Europe Winter Weather Forecast Warning 2011 - 2012

Content copyright © 2010-2011. Exacta Weather. on Oct 31, 2011


Video link .......... http://youtu.be/OO8oaGzQPz4


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Month ahead - November 06, 2011
Valid from 23/11 to 20/12 2011
Settled mid-November

Issued: Saturday 5th November 2011
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob


There remains some confidence that the current unsettled conditions will abate through the middle of the month when a recovery in pressure takes place, the exact location of this is somewhat uncertain at the moment, although on current evidence an anticyclone is expected to build to the north before slipping into the UK and taking control of the pattern.
The latter stages of November see low pressure becoming more influential across the UK and a more Atlantic orientated flow establishing to carry us through to the end of the month. Colder air is anticipated to be drawn into the pattern from the north or northeast, so more of a wintry flavour to close the month into the beginning of December.
The first week of December should see these rather chilly conditions continuing for a while with low pressure in control, less cold air should move through the UK as a westerly Atlantic flow establishes behind a transient ridge of high pressure, rain and strong winds affecting all areas.

*23/11/11*
The current evidence seems to be suggesting that low pressures influence will be declining and that high pressure will take control, all the activity mainly concentrated to the west and northwest, low pressure held either to the west or tracking to the south of the UK, a mainly dry and settled regime establishing across all areas.
Low pressure close to the UK should edge away, taking with it the rather unsettled, showery and autumnal warmth with it, all areas becoming noticeably cooler but generally settled. There will be variable cloud amounts across the UK, this not only controlling the distribution and formation of overnight frost and fog where skies remain clear, but also the sharing out of fortunes for sunshine during the day, where it'll either be cool and cloudy, or bright and sunny and quite pleasant.
High pressure should settle over the UK, so there's a greater chance of brighter skies for a time, but also an increased risk of mist and fog overnight where the winds fall light. Low pressure should be held to the west, the anticyclone blocking the westward progress, a brisker southerly flow may affect western and north-western Britain for a time and some patchy rain moving through. For a time high pressure will build back quite strongly, although it will shift away allowing low pressure to move into the UK, all areas becoming unsettled.

*24/11/11 - 10/12/11*
Conditions here appear to be taking on a much more unsettled and progressively colder inflection, low pressure dislodging the anticyclonic block to allow all areas to be affected by a northwest to increasingly northerly flow, wintry showers showing more of a hand across the higher parts of the north.
Low pressure should be tracking close to the UK, this bringing a much more unsettled and mobile regime to all areas, rain and strong winds crossing from the west. Temperatures should recover for at the time but at the expense of rather cloudy and windy weather, this will clear into a very blustery and chilly regime as low pressure moves away to the east.
A brisk and increasingly chillier north-westerly to northerly air flow is expected to be establishing through all areas, wintry showers appearing over the higher parts of northern Britain. Overnight frosts can be expected where winds fall lighter across central England, less cold along coastal strips of the west and southwest.
Low pressure continues to control the pattern through the beginning of December, so too will the rather unsettled conditions, less cold air occasionally flirting with southern and western Britain, although it'll remain rather chilly through most areas.

*11/12/11 - 18/12/11*
Rather chilly and unsettled weather across the UK will be replaced by milder but sadly equally mixed weather, the flow switching from a northerly to westerly orientated flow, strong winds and rain courtesy of Atlantic low pressure. The close of this forecast period should see a strong build of pressure; this could herald the beginning of quite a wintry spell of weather?
There are indications here that the pattern will revert to a mainly westerly orientated one, so as the chilly source of air is cut off by a transient ridge of high pressure, less cold Atlantic air will move through all areas.
Strong winds will be affecting all areas, as too will bands of rain, these heavy at times, clearing to blustery showers and cooler conditions once more. Later in the period there's likely to be a build of pressure across the UK with an anticyclone drifting to the northeast, colder air being drawn in from off the Continent.

Simon & Capn Bob
weatheronline.co.uk

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Weather and Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

BRITISH ISLES & EUROPE
Monday 7 November, 2011

Models show the Arctic Oscillation flipping negative and to be followed by North Atlantic Oscillation, what does this mean for the UK-Ireland and western Europe?


European pattern and the role of the AO/NAO Video Link ....... http://youtu.be/JvTBVA0mRoQ

European pattern and the role of the AO/NAO (PART 2) Video Link ....... http://youtu.be/vvKeXBlho28


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New update from James Madden!


'WILL IT SNOW' – as promised

Despite the recent increase in solar activity and the large sunspots that are visible on the solar disk at present (See Fig.1), solar activity still remains very low in terms of UV radiation.

Posted Image
FIG.1 SOHO (2011)

I am fully expecting a significant and imminent pattern change, that will result in a dominantly negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) for the upcoming winter. The negative NAO and AO will allow cold air and snow to plunge into Europe and the UK, and weaken the polar vortex (something to keep an important eye on, over the coming weeks). This does not mean immediate snow and cold by any means, but it certainly improves the outlook for frequent cold and above normal snow across many parts of the UK, as we head into the final third of November and much of December. Some of these pattern changes are slightly later than anticipated, and even though it is difficult to believe with the unseasonably mild weather we have been experiencing (which I underestimated), I have very high confidence that we will shortly be entering a gradual cooling trend, that will bring frequent cold and widespread heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK.

As I stated in my last update and many others, I fully expect the blocking to be more sustained this winter in comparison to the 2010/11 winter. It is therefore a logical conclusion that a more sustained blocking pattern, could result in temperature or snowfall records being broken within that defined time frame, or for the winter as a whole.

I really won't have any of this talk about a mild winter, will the people who feel the need to email me every hour of the day trying to convince me otherwise, please stop this?

One final note, I certainly never said anything about WIDESPREAD heavy snowfall in October, or Siberian temperatures to hit us in weeks. These are headlines to grab your attention, the quotes within the articles from myself read somewhat differently. Although I am very grateful to the Daily Express who have sufficiently raised enough awareness of another cold and snowy winter.

The final and big question on the cards is 'WILL IT SNOW' ?

My answer: YES, and it will be widespread across many parts of the UK.

You also have the defined time frame from myself, as you have done since very early this year.

No expensive computer models that don't work until a few weeks before or doctorate required!


UK Meteorological winter 2011/12

December 2011

Below average temperatures and heavy snowfall is likely across many parts of the UK.

January 2012

Below average temperatures and heavy snowfall is likely across many parts of the UK

February 2012

Below average temperatures and moderate to heavy snowfall is likely across parts/many parts of the UK


James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

ExactaWeather.com

Published: 8th November 2011 (22:09) GMT




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Edited by Audi-Tek, November 9 2011, 04:53 PM.
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Christmas Forecast 2011
Christmas Weather 2011 - Will It Be A White Christmas? - Forecast #2 Tuesday 8th November


The week since our first update has flown by, and in that time we've had yet more hype, media stories and even TV programs about the upcoming winter, but at the same time we're still stuck in a mainly mild run of weather. The weather now has no bearing on how things may be by Christmas though, so how are things shaping up since our last update?


Posted ImageAs ever we start with a quick explanation of the weather chart above, and again we're using the CFS model (Climate Forecast System). The chart which was updated earlier today is showing a very similar picture to last week's update - with temperatures fairly close to or perhaps a touch below average during December.

Where does this leave us for Christmas day though? For now, it leaves us in with a shot of snow, but only a relatively long shot at this point - as an average across a whole month can't tell the whole story but on the plus side - other indicators are pointing toward the possibility of some colder air being around during the Xmas period.

As always, please give Santa a shake to find out the risk of a white Christmas in your part of the country, and don't forget to tune in next week for another update..

Next Update - Tuesday 15th November.

Link ..... http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=xmas;sess=

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2011/12 Coldest Winter for almost 200 years !!

My name is Jeff Jacobs I was born in Truro and I have been studying the weather for about 40 plus years. I believe the coming winter will be one of the coldest winters in the UK[fourth in a row] and in Cornwall that we have experience for the last 49/50 years and possibly 200 years!! Major disruption will be experienced on the roads etc, lakes and rivers may well freeze over and people living on the Moors will be cut off for days, possibly weeks.

Coldest Winter for almost 200 years!!

By Jeff Jacobs "Cornwall's weather expert".

I expect the 2011-2012 winter to follow a similar pattern in terms of how November December and January was in 2010 for the vast majority of this winter. It will be exceptionally cold and snowy with well below average temperatures. I fully expect to see records broken with the highlands of Scotland being once again particularly hard hit. It is therefore vital for people of Devon and Cornwall to start preparing now in terms of high energy bills and raising awareness amongst the most vulnerable and elderly people of society.

November will start off stormy with west to south west winds and rain, Daytime temp around 12c towards the middle of the mouth I expect to see the rain turning increasingly to sleet or snow with day time temp falling to 5c [near or at freezing temp on the moors]

December will start off mostly dry and cold but some snow flurries with night frosts, second week will bring the winds from the north west, milder air will come in from the Atlantic with showers of rain hail, and sleet / snow over the moors, becoming much colder again from the east as the High Pressure over Russia extends westward ,winds coming from the north east or east , very windy with a biting east wind , Christmas Week. This is when things will get very interesting as low pressure comes in off the Atlantic and bumps up against the very cold air, we have the prefect recipe for a lot of snow, and with winds up 50mph , this will cause a lot of drifting. We could also experience the deepest snow at Xmas in Cornwall since 1927. Temperatures will be well below average.

N.B.

1927-28: Snow fell mid December in England and Wales, and on Christmas day through Boxing day, a blizzard raged in Southern England, from Kent to Cornwall. 1-2ft of snow fell, with 20ft drifts on Bodmin Moor.!

January keeps the theme going high pressure over to east of UK giving us very cold south east to east winds server night frosts mostly dry but any snow will be heavy with drifting [I will up date the forecast when heavy snow is in the forecast ]

February, heavy snow at first could later turn to rain as milder air try's to come in from the south west………….

As I said last year in the West Briton "We have to get used to these cold winters for the next 10 yrs as the planet is gradually heading in to a mini ice age".


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Christmas 2011: Possibly chilly
Christmas weather forecast introduction

Welcome to our dedicated Christmas 2011 weather forecast page. This will update regularly (usually each Saturday) during the run up to Christmas from September 1st and will take into account the weather patterns which develop during the autumn. Please remember that our Xmas forecast is intended to be for fun, as trying to forecast a single day even one week ahead is fraught with difficulty. The forecast is based on what we expect the general synoptic conditions to be like during the late December period.

Forecast
Our eleventh update keeps the same chances of Christmas snow in the north and south. The weather patterns during October have often been blocked, and there are some suggestions this indicates an increased likelihood of a cold winter, but possibly not a front loaded one. The current forecast is for a risk of colder conditions during the Christmas period, with a chance of a south easterly component in the flow.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 27%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 27%

Update 11, 06/11/2011



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Long Range Forecast - Updated 9th November 2011
The hype about the upcoming winter has continued since our last long range update, but at the same time the mild weather has too. The weather will of course turn colder at some point, but as ever with the long range forecast, we're looking for trends and overall averages as forecasting specific weather types (such as where, when and how much it may snow) at this range is not possible.

Another important proviso is that there is currently a good deal of uncertainty in terms of the forecast for the winter months, so confidence in this forecast is lower than it may usually be.

December
The first month of Winter, and it's expected to be a fairly mixed one with pressure forecast to be higher than average to the north of the UK but lower than average to the southwest. This points to a month with rainfall close to, or just above average but with the high pressure to the north (northern blocking) in place it also opens the door to the risk of some colder spells - which is shown in the temperature forecasts which are close to or a little below average for much of the UK.

Posted Image

Posted Image

Posted Image

January
Currently January is forecast to bring a change in the setup as lower than average pressure takes over to the north of the British Isles. On the ground this is expected to translate into a fairly average month in terms of temperature with rainfall close or just above the seasonal norm for the majority of the UK.

Posted Image

Posted Image

Posted Image

February
As stated above, forecast confidence is low this month and this is particularly true at this range..

February is currently forecast to be a slightly drier month than average for a good deal of the UK with temperatures again quite close to, or just below average for the time of year.

Posted Image

Posted Image

This forecast will be updated on Tuesday 6th December...... http://www.netweather.


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Weather Forecasts for Great Britain & Ireland

Issued: Monday 31st October 2011

*December*
There appears to be some indication of lower pressure to the north or northeast, higher pressure vales to the west or southwest, this suggests a rather chilly run of northwest to northerly air to begin the first �meteorological� month of winter.
This rather chilly regime should weaken as the cold flow is cut off as pressure rises as a weak high or ridge crosses the UK, the flow behind switching to a less cold westerly. Into the middle of the month the Atlantic seems to have the controlling influence, so temperatures recovering with spells of rain for all areas and windy conditions at times.
As we move away from the mid-month period there is evidence to suggest that pressure will be rising once more, so conditions should settle and temperatures falling back to become rather chilly, mist, fog and frost perhaps becoming a persistent problem.
The run up to Christmas is where the forecasting becomes �problematic� and �interesting� as the evidence suggests that high pressure may become stubbornly entrenched to the east or northeast, Atlantic low pressure piling up as a blocked and complex feature to the west and south west, a strengthening and cold south-easterly to perhaps easterly component wind establishing. This threatening some wintry precipitation as frontal systems move into the UK, I have a �gut� feeling that Atlantic will eventually win the battle with milder conditions flooding through over Christmas. It will however be �extremely messy�, colder weather returning as the year closes.
If I ignore this feeling and �stick rigidly� to the pattern in front of me then, the cold weather persists and it�ll remain very cold and wintry through until the end of the month, low pressure moving into a very cold pool of air, over the UK with further wintry precipitation for all areas.

*January*
It�s a cold start to 2012 with low pressure edging away to the east, a cold northerly flow covering all regions, wintry showers beginning to die away as pressure rises and an anticyclone builds through the UK, settling the weather in a cold and still pattern.
High pressure persists for a time as does the settled and chilly weather, this anticyclone shows signs of pulling back westward into the central Atlantic, allowing a more unsettled northwest to westerly flow to establish across all areas in the run up to mid-month, low pressure then moving into the UK, rather unsettled cold and windy, a real messy scenario with spells of rain, sleet and some wintry precipitation too almost anywhere.
The middle of the month looks like seeing colder weather for all areas and with low pressure wrapped up within the pattern, this may lead to a rather wintry spell for all areas during this middle period. This rather chilly and wintry mix continue right through until the latter stages of the month, when the flow looks likely to ease as pressure rises to the southwest with milder westerly regime establishing.
However this recovery in terms of both temperature and fortune may be temporary as colder air looks likely to flood back into the UK late in the month.


This forecast is by Weather Consultancy Services and Weatherweb.net.


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valid from 21/11 to 18/12 2011
Changes ahead?

Issued: Saturday 12th November 2011
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

"We have heard the chimes at midnight". William Shakespeare

I only usually begin to become worried about something when I hear the bell beginning to toll, is this is one of those moments? I appear to be facing a dilemma in preparing this forecast; will it go one way or the other? All the global model evidence is 'saying' one thing whilst the patterns which have been rather consistent for a while now are 'screaming' at the top of their voices another, do I listen to the 'voices' in my ear or go with the convictions?
High pressure for so long has blocked the eastward progress of Atlantic low pressure systems approaching the UK and has kept the flow from a relatively mild and benign direction, all the evidence from the forecast patterns in front of me show high pressure relocating, a much cooler regime establishing across the UK, this is at odds with many of the longer range global models, hence you may appreciate the headache? Perhaps I it may be that have 'stayed out too late' with old friend and can hear the 'bells ringing', for now though, I have to stick with my convictions.

*21/11/11 - 28/11/11*
It'll be here that It'll be 'make or break' time for the forecast as the 'block' to the east will be removed, a pressure build relocating, allowing low pressure to push through the UK.
It'll be unsettled and cool, sliding down the scale as time goes by into the colder category, a flow from the north and northeast turning the showers wintry over the higher parts of the north, a brisk wind everywhere accentuating the rather cold feeling.
High pressure is shown to be the dominant feature to the north or northwest a rather cold quadrant orientated flow persisting across all, a wintry flavour to the increasing scattered showers, winds falling lighter and variable in nature as pressure builds through western Britain.

*29/11/11 - 04/12/11*
High pressure looks as if it'll be slipping through the UK, so at least a few days of settled weather could be on the cards here, settling into a quiet and chilly regime. Mist and fog may become an overnight problem across many areas, this lingering as low cloud and murk in one or two favoured places, bright and pleasantly sunny where it clears.
Winds will be initially light and variable, although as the high slips into the near Continent a fresher southerly breeze will establish through western Britain, this ahead of increasing cloud brining some patchy rain through extreme western areas later.

*05/12/11- 10/12/11*
With high pressure slipping to the south and lower pressure to the north the UK should be seeing a mainly westerly orientated flow during this period.
Rain and strong winds will be affecting western Britain at first and this rather unsettled weather will extend quickly east and south through the period. Milder generally than of late and rather cloudy too for much of the time, later though cooler and showery rain will spread through all areas on a blustery wind, becoming colder through northern Britain as the fow swing into the north or northwest as low pressure clears eastward.

*11/12/11 - 19/12/11*
'Let battle commence' - It'll be around here that the pattern for the early part may be set, pressure should be rising to the north and northeast, extending a ridge into the UK, so all areas should settle but this at the expense of falling temperatures as colder Continental air feeds into Britain.
For the most part all areas should be settled, the usual early winter mix of cold and frosty, bright and sunny where this clears, overcast and dull where it persists being the order of the days. Atlantic low pressure may attempt to push into the southwest, throwing cloud and moisture in to the cold circulation, some threat of wintry precipitation across western and southern Britain occurring for a time.

Simon & Capn Bob
weatheronline.co.uk


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Mild Winter Ahead?

Added : Sat 12 November : 13:13 BST

The very mild theme continues across Britain and Ireland today, and whilst conditions may turn a touch cooler next week, there is currently no sign whatsoever of any significantly cold weather coming our way. Indications at the moment suggest that the rest of November will remain on the mild side of normal, and this theme may well continue into December as well.

Back to today and winds from a southerly quarter are dominating once more. These winds were quite strong in the west earlier on, but they are tending to ease somewhat now. Rain crossed many areas overnight to leave a drier and brighter day for most today with some pleasant sunny spells breaking through. There are a few showers around over western coasts, but even these will tend to die away during this afternoon. Temperatures will again rise into the teens for many places, so remaining very mild for the time of year.

A quiet night follows and clear spells will tend to give way to mist, fog and low cloud and there could even be the odd patch of light rain or drizzle in parts too. So for Remembrance Sunday it starts off rather cloudy and murky in many areas, but sunny spells will again tend to become more widespread, the best of these probably in western areas. Winds will be coming in from a mild south or south-easterly direction, meaning well above normal temperatures are expected. Looking ahead into next week it remains predominantly settled until at least midweek with a fair amount of cloud at times, although somewhat cooler and drier continental air may arrive from the southeast, meaning more sunshine is likely but also colder nights.


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A rose must remain with the sun and the rain or its lovely promise won't come true.
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A rose must remain with the sun and the rain or its lovely promise won't come true.
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By The Boss
Take these predictions as you want it, they will be more dependable than the grant.

November, 2011
Depressions in Mediterranean Sea will bring a lot of snow on the south of Alps and mountainsides Italians in the course of first 2 weeks. Then, a flux of west will bring a little snow on average and high mountain. Cold will be temporary.

December, 2011
Anticyclone will spread out on all south of Europe in western Russia Ural) bringing of dry and soft time. Softness will be remarkable along the south mountainsides while in north and bottom of valley, it will just be cold. But it is especially the absence of rain or snow which will mark the at end of this year as well as of conditions nice in lowland.

January, 2012
This moves little with the arrival of a current of not much unsettled northwest, but enough to bring some snow on all floors of the mountains of Alps of the north. Cold will be present during the periods of sunny time.


Februar,y 2012
Most often the time will be dry, sunny and soft in spite of the possibility of the passage of a disturbance. It will be cold in bottom of valley, very soft by pouring sun where they will smell the arrival of the spring.

March 2012
Cold and snow will touch the lowland and the mountain. In mountains these snowfalls will be abounding by current of west in northwest. The month will be most cold of the winter.

April, 2012
Sunny but cold spring: falls snow will be possible until lowland as of strong jellies. Snow fallen in March will remain all month long.

Link..... http://www.tvmountain.com/article/m-t-o-6-mois/8597-meteo-6-moi-alpes-du-nord-bulletin-novembre.html
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Europe-wide Snow Conditions & Weather Map

Link ....... http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/europe
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Joe Bastardi's winter forecast,

Euro Winter Outlook
October 5 10:16 AMby Joe Bastardi
I posted a bit on this earlier, but here is what I am looking at in Europe for the heart of winter ( mid November to mid March)

A cold winter is forecast in major European areas in the north and west , with above normal snowfall, but the same wild card of blocking that affects the US would affect here too. The idea is that the winter backs off a bit in January, but with most of Europe further north than the US it comes back anyway in Feburary. The models and the analogs have major late season cold, but the models are over the south rather than the north, implying they are seeing a threat of blocking. In any case, I would plan on using as much snow and ice fighting equipment as last year and get ready to focus on the center of the continent for much of the winter, though once again the UK will remember this as a colder than normal winter, in spite of December not being as bad as last year ( if it is, then perhaps the ice age truly is coming)


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Odds halved on a white Christmas as weather forecast predicts polar blast .


Published Tue 15 Nov 2011 10:51




Christmas Britain heading for a big freeze
Posted Image

Bookmakers have slashed the odds of a white Christmas as weather experts forecast the UK will be struck by an Arctic blast of wintry weather throughout December.

Ladbrokes have today halved the betting odds of a white Christmas in London from 10/1 to 5/1 and the chances of snow on the ground on December 25 in Newcastle upon Tyne are just 3/1.

Weather forecasters believe the UK's unusually warm November temperatures will be replaced by a polar cold front that will bring with it snow and icy conditions.

The most likely regions of the UK to experience a white Christmas are Scotland, the North East of England and the Eastern coast.

The Midlands, the South West and Wales are forecast to escape the worst of the extreme conditions.

Ladbrokes spokesman Alex Donohue told ClickGreen that despite the current spell of warmer-than-usual temperatures, the bookmaker's inhouse weather experts were predicting a return to a big chill in December.

“This year has been a year of extremes in terms of the weather,” he added. “Our weather team is seeing a change from the beginning of December and that is strongly increasing the chances of snow for Christmas.

“As a result the odds of a white Christmas have definitely come in today.”

And Jonathan Powell, senior forecaster at Positive Weather Solutions, agreed, saying a new weather system was likely to move in over the UK from the beginning of December, which would trigger the start of an icy spell.

He added: “November will continue to be mild and dry, but the long-range forecast reveals wintry conditions in the North and the East from the first week in December.

“It will likely most affect the North of the UK including the North East of England and the Eastern side of the country.

“South of there, through the Midlands and North Wales, should escape the worst of the weather.”

“As this polar air moves in to replace the milder conditions, any rain that comes in with it will likely fall as snow.

“There is definitely a much greater chance of a white Christmas than usual.”

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Christmas Forecast 2011
Christmas Weather 2011 - Will It Be A White Christmas? - Forecast #3 Tuesday 15th November.



Posted Image.


t's my favourite part of the week again, as we get stuck in for update number 3 of this years Christmas forecast. And of course with every week that passes the nearer we're getting to the big day - just 40 days to go now..


Christmas Day Forecast
As usual we start with a look at one of our weather charts and at this range we stick with the CFS model (Climate Forecast System). Today we have one of the daily charts, and in particular the chart for the 23rd December which with all that blue down across the country shows a risk of snow for a good deal of Britain.

Before you start dusting off the sledge though, this is way out in the future and these charts aren't something we can to use to give a specific forecast as they are certain to change - we're just looking for trends at this range, and there is an emerging trend currently in that the forecasting model does keep wanting to bring some cold air close to or right across the UK during the Christmas period.

So, positive trends tonight if you're hoping for snow (which based on the discussions below a good chunk of you are!), Santa has been updated, so please give him a shake to find out the risk of a white Christmas in your part of the country.

Next Update - Tuesday 22nd November.

Link to post ...... http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=xmas;sess=


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Joe Bastardi posted via twitter.


Posted Image


think that shows Blocking over Greenland, with dark blue pool underneath it over the uk, which presumably means it would be unsettled with snowfall.

He said this is similar to last December.


A review of the Latest December WeatherAction.com forecast for the UK: Updated by Piers Corbyn
Wednesday, November 16th 2011, 8:17 AM EST


Link ..... http://climaterealists.com/?id=8666


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End in sight to extraordinary November weather


Paul Hudson | 15:30 UK time, Friday, 18 November 2011


It is turning out to be a remarkable November, with mean temperatures way above what would normally be expected at this time of the year.

If temperatures were to remain at these elevated levels then it would become the mildest November ever recorded on the Central England Temperature (CET) measure, which dates back 350 years.

These very mild conditions come off the back of what was a very mild October, where new records were set quite widely across the country.

This flies in the face of stories in the press earlier this autumn, originating from several small independent weather forecasting companies, which talked of snow and ice as early as October http://tiny.cc/8hmlu and Siberian weather by mid-November http://tiny.cc/nbzb3

This illustrates graphically the danger of reading too much into long range forecasts, which remain extremely difficult to get right.

There are definite signs that the current stationary, or blocked, weather pattern, which has fed mild air from the south for virtually the whole of November, is about to give way to a more traditional weather pattern as we head towards the end of November, and into December.

A mobile westerly weather pattern should become established through next week. This means stronger winds, and some rain, heaviest in the north and west, with lower totals in the south and east.

An example of what lies on store can be seen on the chart from the GFS American model, for Friday 25th November.

Posted Image

The details are unlikely to be correct, but the broad signal of a run of strong westerly winds, with areas of low pressure to the north, and high pressure to the south, is agreed by most computer models.

Towards the end of November, and into December, there is a trend in some models for winds to switch to the Northwest.

This would bring somewhat colder temperatures, with some precipitation falling as snow across northern parts of the UK, more especially over hills - but this is perfectly normal for the time of the year.

Finally I though it was worth highlighting the forecast that was issued by Weather Action a few weeks ago.

They have recently had some notable successes: last winter's severe weather (although February was a notable exception in being much milder than they expected); they correctly highlighted that this summer would be unsettled; and they also forecast a generally mild autumn some months ago.

So it is with interest that Weather Action have forecast that from Nov 27th to Dec 28th the UK and Ireland will be affected by exceptionally cold weather, with the potential for some 'huge snowfalls' because of solar considerations.

The main computer models only forecast as far as the first week in December, and as it stands at the moment, although some are trending colder later in the period, none are signalling anything as dramatic as Weather Action is suggesting.

It will be very interesting to see who comes out on top.

Link .... http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/

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Large-scale changes in European weather pattern over next 10 days.


Weather and Climate Through The Eyes of Mark Vogan


I am feeling more and more confident that we're set to see changes in our weather pattern across Western Europe over the next 10 days including a turn to COLDER! YIPPY!


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Scores of flights cancelled as fog shrouds the country... and we've got gales and even SNOW on the way

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2063928/UK-weather-forecast-Fog-cancels-flights-gale-force-winds-frosts-way.html#ixzz1eMkmCcIk




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Winter 2011/12 on Netweather


Link to site....... http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=winter;sess=




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Brrr-ace yourselves: Amateur weatherman predicts 'ice age' winter for Greater Manchester.


Posted Image
Colder than last year? . -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n

Greater Manchester is set for another bitterly cold winter according to a local forecaster who believes Europe could be in the midst of a ‘mini ice-age’.

Amateur weatherman Harry Kershaw, 85, from Sale, correctly predicted that January 2010 would be as bad as the 1979 ‘winter of discontent’, when the country was hit by strikes and freezing weather.

Now he fears this winter could be as cold as that of 1812-13 – when freezing temperatures forced Napoleon to retreat from Moscow during his attempt to seize the Russian capital when day-time temperatures reached no more than -9C.

Only 20,000 of the 400,000 soldiers in Napoleon’s Grand Army who had marched into Russia survived the disastrous campaign and the freezing retreat.

Harry said: “It looks like we could be on the same weather cycle that occurred before Napoleon’s retreat.”

Harry, who began forecasting as a merchant seaman, uses a system developed by the German army during the Second World War known as ‘similarity forecasting’.

He matches conditions with those of previous years and then predicts the future weather will follow a similar pattern – often with uncanny accuracy.

In early 2007, his predictions of a miserable summer were at odds with official forecasts, but he was right.

He also warned of wet weather in 2009 when the Met Office told the nation to prepare for a ‘barbecue summer’.

Harry has been monitoring data from sun spots and barometer readings from the North Pole in readiness for drawing together his winter forecast.

He says the data suggests Europe could be in the middle of a ‘mini ice-age’ similar to the one that happened in the four years from 1812 to 1815.

The number of spots on the sun, thought to affect the weather, are the same this year and last year as 1812 and 1813.

Harry says North Pole barometer readings in August suggest Europe will experience a repeat of last winter.

He said: “If it follows the pattern of 1812-13, it will be mild up to as late as December 21. This is what happened in 1962. It was mild until Christmas Eve then we had an appalling winter.”

Dont think so somehow...but hope I am wrong. -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn


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Christmas Forecast 2011
Christmas Weather 2011 - Will It Be A White Christmas? - Forecast #4 Tuesday 22nd November


Posted Image


he weeks are flying by as we count down to Xmas, the lights are being switched on in town centres up and down the country, and the Christmas ads are starting to come thick and fast on the TV.
You may remember that last week we were looking at the start of a possible trend for cold air to be closeby during the Xmas period, and this week it's been continuing to tease us by showing a colder scenario every other day or so.

The chart above from our long range CFS model (Climate Forecast System), is one of those colder scenarios with cold air (the blue colours) over much of the country on the 25th December.

In weather terms we're still absolutely miles from being able to pin down a specific forecast for Christmas day though, so we're on the hunt for trends and hints pointing us in the right direction. And while there's no real clear front runner at this point, there is plenty to be upbeat about if you're hoping for a White Christmas.

Give Santa a shake to find out the chance of snow in your part of the country, and don't forget to tune in next week for the next installment.

Next Update - Tuesday 29th November. ....... http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=xmas;sess=


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Mark Vogan Explains the Whys of the European Pattern


Link to video ......... http://youtu.be/fc1Tdo3OEFU


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Update from James Madden 24thNovember 2011

Update As in my last update on the 8th November, I stated that I was expecting some pattern changes that was slightly later than anticipated, as we head into the final third of November and most of December. The pattern that we have experienced for November to date, is not the pattern I am expecting for the meteorological winter of 2011-12 (December, January, February). I am however expecting a significant pattern change, that will result in a dominantly negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) for the majority of the upcoming winter. When I first issued my summer and winter forecast on Exacta Weather in late January/Youtube in early February, I stated that I had high confidence that the meteorological summer (June, July, August) was likely to be below-average in terms of temperature, with largely above average rainfall, based on the parameters I consider within my personal long range forecasting techniques. The UK summer rainfall was 18% above normal according to Met Office statistics http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2011/summer.html All three months also came in below-average (June, July, August) in terms of Central England Temperature (the oldest temperature dataset in the world - over 350 years old) and as I originally forecast. This factor/correct forecast also has an important bearing on my winter forecast (December, January, February) that was also issued at the same time as my summer forecast earlier this year. June -0.4C July -0.8C August -0.4C http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html As I have stated many times throughout this year, I am expecting a more sustained blocking pattern in comparison to last year, that will bring frequent cold and above normal snow to many parts of the UK and Ireland this winter. It is therefore a logical conclusion that snowfall or temperature records could be broken within this defined time frame, or for the winter as a whole. I still expect many northern regions, Scotland, and parts of Ireland to experience the worst of these conditions. Scotland will begin to see snowfall mainly across high ground as we head into this weekend. Snow will continue to affect Scotland and become more widespread within this region as we head into next week, with an increasing possibility of snow to lower parts of the UK and Ireland, as we head into the final few days of November and the first third of December. The remainder of December as a whole is likely to feature largely below-average temperatures, with deep widespread snow accumulations across many parts of the UK and Ireland. Any required updates will be posted accordingly. James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster) ExactaWeather.com Published: 24th November 2011 (09:37) GMT


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UK & IRELAND SUMMARY - Possibly colder weather ahead???


With the fairly static Pressure pattern across the Continent giving the UK and Ireland milder Southerly winds and Low Pressure blocked to our West giving drier weather for most, what many people will be asking is, "Will it get colder anytime soon and will there be snowfall?" The answer to that question is pretty uncertain in itself, as I've ran the Model sequence several times at the moment and it's given me a hint that there could be some colder and perhaps snowier weather to look forward to during the middle or latter stages of December. I say perhaps, because the Model Runs are giving conflicting signals i.e. one run says colder air and Lower Pressure, whilst another shows milder air with Higher Pressure and drier conditions. I have ran several Models and have ensembled all the different Models Data to come to a conclusion as to what I think could happen, over the course of the next Month or so!

Monday 21st - Sun 27th November 2011
Winds will come from the South or Southwest for much of this period until Friday (25th) at the latest. Colder air is expected to spread from the West/NW across Scotland, N. Ireland and Republic of Ireland. Snow risk increases across the Highland and Grampian regions of Scotland by mid to late week. As the week progresses, frosts are likely at times in any quieter periods across Scotland and Northern Ireland. Cooler than of late across Central, Southern and Eastern England with cooler air becoming established from the West. Temperatures will return to Average values for the majority of the UK, however slightly below values are likely from time to time across Northern Britain, Northern Ireland the ROI. Thursday runs the risk of heavy rain across Northern Ireland, ROI with an expected eastwards progress of this to Central, Southern and SW Scotland, Cumbria, NW England and Wales by Thursday afternoon/evening. This clears East overnight. Moderate rain likely elsewhere with breezy conditions. Windy across Northern and Western hills and coasts. Friday sees drier weather at times with occasional showers, heavy across the NW. Saturday runs the risk of seeing a period of heavy rain across Western and Northern Scotland, with a risk of snowfall across ground above 600m. Driest & brightest across Central, Southern, SE and Eastern Britain. The weekend sees stronger winds for many areas, with rain, possibly heavy, arriving across Wales, SW and Southern parts of England and the Midlands during Sunday evening. This is what the current model run shows, there will be fluctuations within this weeks weather.
Monday 28th - Sun 4th December 2011
This period is currently expected to remain fairly similar to week 1, with Low Pressure sending rain and strong winds our way for much of the time. Rain will be heaviest and most persistent across Western Britain, coupled with strong to gale-force winds at times. Mid-week is one to keep an eye on, as rain is currently expected to cross Scotland and Northern Ireland and coupled with colder air surging Southeastwards on the back of this front, gives the heightened risk of snow across parts of the Highlands and Grampians. Western Scottish hills may also see snowfall during this weather event. Temperatures around Average or just below across the North and Average or slightly above in the South and East. Temperatures that are above Average across the South and East, will gradually return to Average or a tad below, mainly after Thursday. Unsettled for many, with longer spells of rain or showers coupled with occasional strong winds. Driest and brightest in the East and Southeast. Plenty of cloud for the majority.
Monday 5th - Sun 11th December 2011
The latest GFS Model Run now gives me a slight increase of confidence that this period is likely to see cooler or colder conditions across the majority of the UK with temperatures around Average or below across the entire UK. This cooling trend is expected to continue during this period, with High Pressure situating itself across the East of the UK South of Scandinavia. This is hinting to me that East to SE winds are likely during this period. Rain and snow is likely across more Northern parts of the UK, but I'm not seeing anything in the way of significant snowfall during this period, with only light coverings expected over Moorlands and Mountains North of Yorkshire. Southern UK is likely to see drier and brighter conditions, however with High Pressure close by and a cooler/colder airmass established, we are likely to experience some night-time frosts.
Monday 12th - Sun 18th December 2011
This period is crucial in terms of the development towards the risk of a White Christmas across the UK and Ireland. I currently believe that somewhen during this period, we will see the onset of colder weather for much, if not all of the UK. If I have to put probability into the equation, I'd say that forecast temperatures are likely to be below or well above average for much of the UK. It may well be that temperatures are likely to be just a little below average or just on average across West Ireland, however the rest of ROI looks set to see colder than average conditions with the UK. Snowfall may become an issue during this period for much of the UK. The snowfall may well become extensive across the majority of the UK, with coverings possible across Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales, Southwest England (with the possible exception of Cornwall), Southern England, Eastern and SE England, North, NE & NW England and the Midlands. Frosts are likely to become widespread and hard to severe in places, coupled with freezing fog patches.
NOTE: CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PERIOD, 12th-18th DEC, IS CURRENTLY LOW!

Forecast by WCC WEATHER & CLIMATE FORECASTING! ............ http://wccweatherclimate.moonfruit.com/#/monthly-outlook/4557754751


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UK: forecast days 1 to 30

Headline:

Unsettled, cold and windy in the north. Mostly dry elsewhere.
Today:

Noticeably colder for the northern half of the UK with showers, giving a covering of snow in the Scottish mountains. Staying very windy. Mostly dry with some sunshine further south, but less mild, and scattered showers expected through the afternoon.
Tonight:

Largely clear and chilly across the southern half of the country but becoming cloudier. Showers at first elsewhere, then more persistent rain spreading from the west by midnight. Winds strengthening.
Saturday:

Outbreaks of rain, some heavy, continuing across the north and west. The driest weather confined to central, southern and eastern Britain. Very windy with severe gales in the north.

Updated: 0323 on Fri 25 Nov 2011
Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Staying very windy at times in northwestern UK, with successive bands of rain followed by showers, falling as snow on northern hills. Driest and brightest towards the southeast.

Updated: 0323 on Fri 25 Nov 2011
UK Outlook for Wednesday 30 Nov 2011 to Friday 9 Dec 2011:

It will be a largely unsettled period across the bulk of the UK, with the wettest and windiest weather generally towards the northwest, with gales and spells of heavy rain or showers most likely here. Showers will turn to snow at times over high ground in the north, perhaps falling to lower levels on occasion, with a low chance of this also threatening central parts of the UK at times. There will, however, be some drier and more settled interludes too, especially towards the south of the country later in the period. Temperatures are likely to be around or a little below the seasonal average, bringing an increased risk of frost overnight almost anywhere during any more settled spells.

Updated: 1132 on Fri 25 Nov 2011
UK Outlook for Saturday 10 Dec 2011 to Saturday 24 Dec 2011:

The generally changeable westerly theme is likely to continue through the middle part of December, with spells of wet and windy weather separated by some drier interludes. Generally, rainfall amounts are expected to be around or a bit above average, meaning that western areas will on the whole see more rain than the east, although some rainy spells are likely for all parts. Sunshine hours should also be close to or slightly above normal, with eastern parts more likely to experience the best of the sun. In terms of temperatures, many places are likely to see a trend towards somewhat milder than average conditions, but this does not rule out some colder snaps and the chances of frost and hill snow will continue to increase later in the month.

Updated: 1208 on Fri 25 Nov 2011

http://www.metoffice..


Think one can rule out snow up until Exmas Day at least now...if the above forecast holds true.


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Winter Forecast Summary 2011 - Issued 25th November
A Winter Of Two Halves
Long range forecaster Stewart Rampling presents a summary of the Netweather Winter forecast for 2011/12.

Forecast summary

Another cold feeling winter although not as cold as 2009 or 2010 overall with noticeable mild phases.

Mild to start with temperatures close to average or slightly above for December and early January with generally mixed weather this side of New Year.

Becoming progressively colder during the 2nd half with average or slightly below temperatures during January and a strong signal for below average February.

Rainfall close to average generally, but wetter than normal over southern England.


Key Points:

A Winter of two halves
Start of Winter mildest
End of Winter coldest
Rainfall close to average

Please Note - The full and detailed forecast will be issued on Saturday 26th November.

Link ........ http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-forecast-summary-2011;sess


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Weather Services International Expects Mildest European Winter Since 2007-08
Coldest Winter Temperatures Expected across France and Iberia


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Andover, MA, November 21, 2011 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects temperatures for the upcoming period (December-February) to average lower than normal across France and Iberia with above-normal temperatures common elsewhere, most notably across the Nordic region.

“So far, November has clearly been quite mild across most of Europe. While no immediate change to this pattern is expected, we do foresee a trend towards colder temperatures across western Europe and the UK in December,” said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. “The winter pattern will be dominated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). During the last couple of years, a strong negative phase of the NAO has been dominant, which has resulted in very cold winters. It does not appear that this extreme negative NAO phase will occur again this winter, which, we think, will result in a much warmer winter. We still feel that there will be enough spells of negative NAO to result in a slightly colder-than-normal winter across parts of France and Iberia. However, we have warmed our forecast temperatures in most western European locations for both December and January due to a continued lack of any sign of a sustained or strong negative NAO pattern. We expect the mildest winter in Europe since the 2007-08 winter.”

In December, WSI sees the monthly breakdown as:
Nordic Region* – Warmer than normal
UK * – Colder than normal
Northern Mainland* – Warmer than normal, except France
Southern Mainland * – Warmer than normal, except Iberia

In January, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
UK – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except eastern sections
Southern Mainland – Colder than normal, except Iberia

In February, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
UK – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except southern France
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except Iberia


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FULL UK & IRELAND LONG RANGE WEATHER FORECAST – WINTER 2011/12


DECEMBER 2011
The beginning of the Month is expected to see cooler temperatures than those that we saw in November, as areas of Low Pressure move across the UK from the Atlantic. The majority of the United Kingdom and Ireland are likely to see spells of rain, heaviest in the North and West, coupled with strong winds from the Westerly quarter. On the back edge of these Low Pressure systems, we are likely to see COLDER INCURSIONS of air as they drag down Northerly winds as air movement around Low Pressure systems are anti-clockwise. Then back to a SW/Westerly flow as another Low comes in off the Atlantic, with the same process yet again commencing of mild to cold, then to mild. There appears to be some indication of lower pressure to the north or northeast, higher pressure vales to the west or southwest, this suggests a rather chilly run of northwest to northerly air to begin the first 'meteorological' month of winter. This rather chilly regime should weaken as the cold flow is cut off as pressure rises as a weak high or ridge crosses the UK, the flow behind switching to a less cold westerly. Into the middle of the month the Atlantic seems to have the controlling influence, so temperatures should be recovering with spells of rain for the majority of the UK & Ireland, coupled with windy conditions at times. As we move away from the mid-month period there is some slight evidence to suggest that pressure should be rising once more, so conditions should settle and temperatures falling back to perhaps become rather chilly or cold, with Mist, Fog and Frost perhaps becoming a persistent problem in places. The run up to Christmas is where the forecasting becomes 'problematic' and 'interesting' as the evidence suggests that high pressure may become stubbornly entrenched to the east or northeast, Atlantic low pressure piling up in the Atlantic as a blocked and complex feature to the west and southwest, and a strengthening and cold south-easterly to perhaps easterly wind establishing. This may well be threatening some wintry precipitation as frontal systems move into the UK, and I have a slight feeling that the Atlantic may eventually win the battle for this short period with milder conditions flooding through over Christmas (at least that’s the current trend). It will however be 'extremely messy', with colder weather returning as the year closes. If I ignore this feeling and 'stick rigidly' to the pattern in front of me, then the cold weather should persist and it'll remain very cold and wintry through until the end of the month, low pressure moving into a very cold pool of air over the UK and Ireland with further wintry precipitation expected for all areas. NOTE: Don’t be shocked if we see milder weather at times, as it is possible from time to time.
CHRISTMAS PERIOD FORECAST (Please Note: There will be different variations within this Forecast as time progresses, but this is the CURRENTLY EXPECTED TREND for the Christmas Period).
I am expecting (as above) colder air to be situated across the UK during the Christmas Period, with the Atlantic Low Pressure trying to push milder air towards us. This in turn, could well push moisture into the cold pool of Arctic air which is currently expected to be across the UK near or over the Christmas Period. If this happens, (and I say IF because there is LOW CONFIDENCE in this at present) then we can expect to see Snowfall across many parts of the UK, and I say many parts, because there will be variations in the snowfall, i.e. where it falls and how much is expected to fall. Frosts can be expected and these will be severe across areas with ‘potential’ snow-cover or no frosts at all IF any cloudier conditions prevail. DREAMING OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS?? – With the CURRENT EXPECTATIONS, I currently give the UK a between 30-40% Chance of a White Christmas at present! Variations within the Forecast are likely, so it’s likely to change and the Daily Forecasts will be updated regularly to ensure precise details are available.

JANUARY 2012

It's a cold start to 2012 with low pressure edging away to the east, a cold northerly flow covering all regions, wintry showers beginning to die away as pressure rises and an anticyclone builds through the UK, settling the weather in a cold and still pattern. This heightens the RISK of Frost and Foggy conditions. High pressure is CURRENTLY EXPECTED to persist for a time as does the settled and chilly weather, this anticyclone shows signs of pulling back westward into the central Atlantic, allowing a more unsettled northwest to westerly flow to establish across all areas in the run up to mid-month, low pressure then moving into the UK and Ireland, rather unsettled cold and windy, a real messy scenario with spells of rain, sleet and some wintry precipitation too almost anywhere. The middle of the month looks like seeing colder weather for all areas and with low pressure wrapped up within the pattern, this MAY lead to a rather wintry spell for all areas during this middle period. This rather chilly and wintry mix continue right through until the latter stages of the month, when the flow looks likely to ease as pressure rises to the southwest with milder westerly regime establishing. However this recovery in terms of both temperature and fortune may be temporary as colder air looks likely (60-80%) to flood back into the UK late in the month.

FEBRUARY 2012

February looks like starting on a colder note across most parts of the UK & Ireland. Wintry precipitation can be expected at times for many, as can strong winds at times. Mid-month may see a spell of milder weather (as milder weather cannot be completely ruled out), returning to the UK & Ireland and this in turn will give more unsettled conditions i.e. rain and occasionally strong winds, as Low Pressure moves from West to East across many areas. I’m also CURRENTLY seeing colder air returning across the majority of the UK during the second half of the month, as high pressure becomes anchored to the North/NW of the UK and low pressure to the South/SE of the UK. This combination brings more settled weather to Northern UK for a short time, but as the Low and High pressure zones push against each other, winds will likely be strong from the East or Northeast and winds from that direction, are more likely to introduce snow showers or longer spells of snow for the majority of the UK and Ireland. Rain is likely for more SW parts of Ireland.
NOTES FOR THE ENTIRE WINTER FORECAST There are areas of GREAT UNCERTAINTY within the Forecast Period, however I still believe that the UK should endure prolonged cold spells at times, as well as milder spells interspersing the colder weather at times. This Forecast gives a GENERAL IDEA as to what the CURRENT EXPECTATIONS are for the Winter Period. There are huge variations expected within this Forecast (and within any Long Range Forecast) and so the exact timing of the colder/milder spells is NOT YET CLEAR AT PRESENT and so details will be issued on the website and on our Facebook Page if conditions and expectations change. WARNINGS OVERVIEW for Winter 2011/12 – UNITED KINGDOM AND IRELAND! I CURRENTLY expect Periods of COLD/V.COLD and MODERATE/HEAVY SNOWFALL across much of the UK at some stage (TIMING NOT YET CLEAR) between around 18th December and 26th January. CONFIDENCE in this happening is CURRENTLY BETWEEN 50-70%. STRONG TO GALE-FORCE WINDS are likely (75-85%) at times during both any colder and/or milder spells throughout the entire Winter Period. MILD PERIODS ARE ALSO OCCASIONALLY EXPECTED AT TIMES ACROSS LARGE SWATHES OF THE UK!

PLEASE NOTE: THE UK AND IRELAND IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE AVERAGE, BELOW OR WELL-BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AT TIMES AT VARIOUS STAGES (TIMING CURRENTLY UNCERTAIN) THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WINTER! Average or Slightly above Average Temps are likely at times!

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