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Are We Set For A Long, Cold Winter?
Topic Started: September 26 2011, 10:21 PM (7,108 Views)
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Netweather.tv

Winter 2011/12 forecast

“A winter of two halves”



Forecast summary

Mild to start with temperatures close to average or slightly above for December and early January with generally mixed weather this side of New Year.

Becoming progressively colder during the 2nd half with average or slightly below temperatures during January and a strong signal for below average February.

Rainfall close to average generally, but wetter than normal over southern England.


Link....... https://docs.google.com/present/view?id=dc2724pn_134fcd3kbhq

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-forecast-detail-2011;sess=



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Month ahead - November 26, 2011
Valid from 11/12 to 07/01 2012
Storing up trouble?

Issued: Saturday 26th November 2011
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob


On a personal level I have found this rather benign regime of weather quite boring, with a feeling that 'we may be storing up trouble'?

The conditions look as though may 'thankfully' become a little more interesting through the coming month as the patterns notch up a gear and we receive the more characteristic fluctuations in temperature, precipitation and fortune, the deck of cards perhaps being more evenly dealt than previously seen, some areas seeing an improvement whilst other slide into a more unsettled and wintry regime.

*11/12/11*
Unsettled and cool, increasingly colder could be the name of the game here? Low pressure will be ruling the overall pattern; this'll be generating rather mixed conditions for all of the UK during this period.
It'll be rather windy at times with outbreaks of rain which will be heavy at times and through from time to time as colder air becomes drawn into the flow, expect some wintriness to appear across higher ground across the north, northwest and west.
Given the unsettled nature of the pattern, the strength of the breeze and the source region of the flow it'll be feeling rather cold at times, although as we approach the close of the period, the cold flow will be cut off and it'll slowly become less cold, eventually milder by comparison as a switch around to the west or northwest takes place.

*12/12/11 - 18/12/11*
With high pressure close to the west of the UK, western Britain will be experiencing the driest and brightest of the conditions on offer, whilst further east and northeast it'll somewhat more mixed.
The flow looks as if it'll be sourced from mid-Atlantic, so not overly cold just 'cool' generally coming around the northern flank of a central Atlantic centre area of high pressure, this carrying a good deal of cloud down through the UK on a north-westerly flow. Across eastern and north-eastern Britain there may be a bit more in the way of showery rain and a brisker breeze at times.

*19/12/11 - 21/12/11*
High pressure builds through the UK as an anticyclone drifts across from the west so al areas should see a few days of drier and more settled weather, chilly and calm overnight so expect frost and areas of mist and fog to be troublesome, persisting in some areas throughout the day, where it'll remain chilly.

*22/12/11 - 24/12/11*
This rather chilly and settled regime looks as though it'll be swept away by an increasingly windy and less cold flow from off the Atlantic, low pressure tracking in off the Atlantic to bring an unsettled regime to all areas. Mild at first although as low pressure transfers eastward a much colder blast follows from the north, showers turning wintry quite readily.

Simon & Capn Bob

Link ......... http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=monthahead&DAY=20111126



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Europe's weather turns to milder winter outlook

LONDON/FRANKFURT | Wed Nov 23, 2011 1:54pm GMT

(Reuters) - Weather forecasters are revising their European outlook for the upcoming winter season and are now expecting milder-than-average weather instead of the initially forecast colder-than-normal season.

Point Carbon (a Thomson Reuters company) and U.S.-based Weather Services International (WSI), two leading weather forecast services, revised their winter outlook to warmer expectations this week.

"The 2011/2012 winter across Europe will likely be mild with no major or sustained cold spells," Point Carbon's meteorologist Georg Mueller said on Wednesday.

On Monday, WSI revised its forecast.

"During the last couple of years, a strong negative phase of the NAO has been dominant, which has resulted in very cold winters. It does not appear that this extreme negative NAO phase will occur again this winter, which, we think, will result in a much warmer winter," said WSI Chief Meteorologist Todd Crawford.

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of winter climate variability in the North Atlantic region, which ranges from central North America to Europe. Meteorologists say a negative NAO usually indicates colder winters, while a positive NAO means milder winters for Europe and north America.

The NAO was positive in September and October and began to dip in late October but has since returned to positive territory, according to data from the US National Weather Service.

The NAO is considered positive when pressures and heights are below normal over Greenland and Iceland (strong Icelandic low) and above normal at middle and subtropical latitudes (strong Bermuda-Azores high) -- and negative for the reverse anomalies.

The NAO has largely been negative during the past three winter seasons, causing cold and wet winters along Europe's Atlantic and North Sea coasts and wetter, windier weather across the Iberian Peninsula and Italy as westerly winds from the Atlantic are pushed South.

Providers of power and gas for heating and lighting need to gauge likely weather patterns as they drive consumer demand and utility buying of energy commodities such as coal or gas.

Below is a summary of Point Carbon's and WSI's revised forecasts:

POINT CARBON

Point Carbon said that northern Europe was likely to get milder and wetter than in the last two winters.

Central Europe would show a tendency toward more high pressure influence but also with no longer-lasting extreme cold spells and occasional wetter and windier periods, Point Carbon said.

Point Carbon initially said it expected the first parts of the coming winter to be cooler than average.

Despite the revisions, Point Carbon said that brief colder spells were still possible, ruling out at this stage the case for predicting the coming winter to be extremely mild.

WEATHER SERVICES INTERNATIONAL (WSI)

WSI, which specializes in weather information for use in the energy sector, said it expected temperatures for the upcoming period (December-February) to average lower than normal across France and Iberia with above-normal temperatures common elsewhere, most notably across the Nordic region.

In December, WSI sees the monthly breakdown as:

Nordic Region - Warmer than normal

UK - Colder than normal

Northern Mainland - Warmer than normal, except France

Southern Mainland - Warmer than normal, except Iberia

In January, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region - Warmer than normal

UK - Warmer than normal

Northern Mainland - Warmer, except eastern sections

Southern Mainland - Colder than normal, except Iberia

In February, WSI forecasts:

Nordic Region - Warmer than normal

UK - Warmer than normal

Northern Mainland - Warmer, except southern France

Southern Mainland - Warmer than normal, except Iberia

WSI initially expected temperatures until December to be below average in the UK and western European mainland, while the eastern mainland, Southeast Europe and most of the Nordic region will be warmer than average.


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Prepare for record snow and cold 25 November 2011 10:49 | By Kerry Stewart, Reporter, MSN


The wind has picked up and so has the chances of a white winter. As much of the UK has been enjoying mild conditions for this time of year things are changing.
The Met Office has issued a weather warning for parts of the Highlands due to very strong winds and blustery showers. This is just the beginning as the forecast shows conditions are set to deteriorate quickly.

James Madden, a Long Range weather forecaster, has warned that frequent cold and above-average snow levels will soon hit the UK and Ireland. Due to these conditions Madden said: "It is therefore a logical conclusion that snowfall or temperature records could be broken within this defined time frame, or for the winter as a whole."

September and October saw record warm temperatures as thermometers hit 30C; rainfall levels were less than one inch for October, which hasn't happened since 2005. November has so-far been a mild month, however things are about to get serious as we can expect to be hurled into the full throws of real winter within weeks.

Snow has already arrived in south-west Scotland but, as Madden of Exacta Weather explains, this is likely to hit other areas too: "Snow will continue to affect Scotland and become more widespread within this region as we head into next week, with an increasing possibility of snow to lower parts of the UK and Ireland.

"The remainder of December as a whole is likely to feature largely below-average temperatures, with deep widespread snow accumulations across many parts of the UK and Ireland."

What is The Big Question?
Christmas lights have been switched on all over the country; mince pies are now part of a staple diet, so the annual obsession of foraging for clues to predict the weather intensifies as people inevitably want to know will we have a white Christmas? Madden predicts we will, although heavier snowfall and low temperatures will stun the country throughout January and February.


t-on--gu-e -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn -c-o-o-l -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn t-on--gu-e -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn


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Cold Snap Just Around the Corner?
Nov 28 2011


ou’ll notice in the title that I’ve mentioned the words “Cold Snap” rather than “Cold Spell” as the models are beginning to hint at some cooler conditions pushing Southwards across the country behind an area of Low Pressure as we move towards the end of the first week of December, in the longer range models however there is currently nothing to suggest we’ll see a prolonged spell of cold and wintry weather.

Both the GFS and ECM computer models are hinting at this, as you can see below

Posted Image

Posted Image

The above two charts are generally in agreement for the 7th of December and that’s to see Low Pressure pushing in across Scandi allowing colder, Arctic air to flood across the United Kingdom from the North.

Now it’s important to bear in mind that currently, these are the only realistic models to show this outcome and because this setup is still a little over a week away, it’s impossible to say for sure whether it WILL happen, but confidence is beginning to grow as we move closer towards this time period. Given the current setup we’re in, the above charts are not completely out of the question.

Currently however, there are no signs of any prolonged, severe cold and snowy weather like we saw last November and December.

http://ukweather.wordpress.com/2011/11/28/cold-snap-just-around-the-corner/


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Mark Vogan on HOW THE UK-EUROPE DECEMBER PATTERN WILL PLAY OUT!!!


Video Link ............ http://youtu.be/A0EAWD6ZZSY


t-on--gu-e -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn t-on--gu-e -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn



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Piers Corbyn Review of Forecast and update to December


Video Link .......... http://youtu.be/ozm2wem7BMo



-c-h-i-n Think Piers forecasts should be taken with a rather large pinch of salt..Think he hasnt a clue now...on what may or may not happen this winter. A 5 year old, would make more sense..than Piers...as he is all at sea now....as far as his winter forecast stands.

p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k zzzzzzzz zzzzzzzz zzzzzzzz zzzzzzzz zzzzzzzz

I have given up on this guy..... p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k




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Mark Vogan ............ I'm sticking to my guns: Don't depend on the models



Video Link ..................... http://youtu.be/TZkLkAtOpNU




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When Will The Widespread Snow Hit UK & Ireland 2011 - Weather Warning

4th December 2011



Posted Image


As I stated in one of my recent updates on the 24th November 2011

“Snow will continue to affect Scotland and become more widespread within this region as we head into next week, with an increasing possibility of snow to lower parts of the UK and Ireland, as we head into the final few days of November and the first third of December. The remainder of December as a whole is likely to feature largely below-average temperatures, with some deep and widespread snow accumulations across many parts of the UK and Ireland, that will continue into January and February. Any required updates will be posted accordingly”

I have stated since very early this year, that I expect December to feature below-average temperatures with widespread heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK. I have also stated “across many parts of the UK” for a good reason, as I will explain.

Weather Warning – Widespread snowfall and much colder temperatures

Now although there is going to be some notable snow about in the early part of next week, as forecast on Exacta Weather on the 8th November 2011. I am expecting things to significantly change to a more prolonged period of much colder weather with widespread snowfall across many parts of the UK and Ireland, as we head into the latter part of next week and in the run up to and during the festive period. The temperatures in Scotland and many Northern regions are likely to dip below negative double figures at times within this period in the evenings. A white Christmas is also looking increasingly possible across many parts of the UK, especially more so in the regions of Scotland and Northern England in terms of any possible accumulations on the actual day.

Definition of a white Christmas “across many parts of the UK”

A single snowflake must fall at any time during the twenty four hour period of Christmas day at a specified location. Snow already lying on the ground does not count as a white Christmas officially, and I say this as snow is likely to be lying on the ground in many locations on or around this period, if things develop as I expect them to over the coming weeks.

December widespread snowfall “across many parts of the UK”

I am not expecting December to be the most severe month of this meteorological winter, as I expect these conditions to prevail as we head into January and February, and I have also never stated otherwise. I have also stated that there will be some periods of moderation at times and any areas further south are likely to see the best of these conditions.

I am however expecting widespread and heavy snow across many parts of the UK in December, and although the regions I expect to be affected by the most frequent and widespread heavy snowfalls are Scotland, Northern Ireland, North West, North East, and Yorkshire. I am also expecting parts of the West and East Midlands, Wales, and the East to experience some notable and frequent heavy snowfalls in December too. Some moderate to heavy falls of snow are even likely at times across parts of London, South East, and the South West. This is why I have stated since earlier this year “across many parts of the UK in December”.

Northern England and in particular Scotland will experience frequent and very heavy falls of snow throughout December, even at lower levels the snow is likely to lead to some deep snow accumulations at times.

Time to wrap up warm and dust off those sledges!

Below is a copy of the front page of the Strathspey Herald from the 22nd June 2011, based on my winter long range forecast for severe snow in Scotland this winter (December, January, February).
Posted Image

James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)

ExactaWeather.com

Published: 4th December 2011 (16:57) GMT



-c-h-i-n -c-o-o-l p-o-pc-o-rn -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn



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Met Office predicts possible white Christmas.

Bookmakers have slashed the odds of a white Christmas after Met Office officials predicted possible snow on December 25.


Posted Image
A woman walks her dog through the snow in Allenheads, Hexham, as snowfall continues to sweep the north of England Photo: PA

4:52PM GMT 05 Dec 2011

Forecasters said the country was currently being hit by the “coldest days of winter” so far as a foot of powder blanketed Scotland and fell as far south as Derbyshire.

Northern England had up to three inches of snow by early this morning with Twitter users posting photographs of the Peak District covered by the fall.

The Met Office said four inches of snow was lying at Eskdalemuir, Dumfries and Galloway - with up to six inches more falling throughout the day in western Scotland, and up to four inches in southern and northern Scotland.

Further snow is due across most of Scotland tomorrow - with ski resorts planning to open next week.

Elsewhere in the country sleet fell across much of the north today, with hail in the south.
The Met Office forecast a possible white Christmas in northern England and Scotland, with southern England at risk if a cold front is blown south.

Bookmakers had been offering 5/1 odds of snow on December 25 - but Ladbrokes is now offering odds of just 2/1 in Aberdeen, 5/2 in Newcastle and 3/1 in London.

The Met Office forecast for December 19 to January 2 warned: “It is likely there will be colder spells, chiefly across northern parts of the UK, with snow to lower levels.

“Unsettled weather looks to continue to the end of the year across northern parts, while southern parts are more likely to see more settled conditions.

“Temperatures will be mostly around average, although southern areas may see above average temperatures. However, cold nights are expected across the UK, with frost and fog.”

A Ladbrokes spokeswoman said: “The white Christmas market is always popular and we are expecting a flurry of bets following the recent snow, with our odds expected to fall further.”

Cairngorm mountain ski resort spokesperson Ian Whitaker said: “We’ve got around 4in of snow on the slopes and if the forecast for snow and cold temperatures ahead is accurate, we could open within 10 days.”

Met Office forecaster Sarah Holland said: “We’ve had snow in recent days on higher ground in northern England, with snow on Sunday night down to low levels in Scotland.

“Today saw the risk of snow in the Pennines, Cumbria and possibly the Peak District, with a wintry mix of sleet and hail also falling on a miserable day, and hail also possible in the south.

“We had advisories for more snow covering the vast majority of Scotland, possibly at lower levels, with another 10cm or more possible on western slopes and 5-10cm elsewhere.

“Tuesday will certainly see more snow in Scotland, with a wintry mix again on the Pennines.

“These are the coldest days of winter so far, with the possibility parts of Scotland’s central belt and Grampians will remain at 0C through Monday and Tuesday, with highs in other areas of just 1-2C, and only 4C in the Midlands of England.

“Monday night was seeing temperatures down to -2C in Scotland and 1C in northern England, so people need to be aware of icy conditions on Tuesday.”

:( :( :( :( :( d-r--oo-l- d-r--oo-l- d-r--oo-l- d-r--oo-l- d-r--oo-l- -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn



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From: Mr MarkVogan Dec 5, 2011.

After first widespread snowfall/chill across Scotland/NW Eng, Temps moderate Wed/Thurs



Video Link ........................... http://youtu.be/jl3TWwabbSk




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Christmas Forecast 2011
Christmas Weather 2011 - Will It Be A White Christmas? - Forecast #6 Tuesday 6th December


Following on from the first batch of more widespread wintry weather of the winter there's ever more talk about the chances of some snow this Xmas. As usual we start with a chart from the CFS model (Climate Forecast System) and after a green looking chart last week, this time round the blues have returned.

Posted Image

What the blue colours indicate is that the possible trend for cold and potentially snowy weather around the Christmas period is still refusing to disappear, with fairly regularly appearances during recent updates.

With this in mind, this week sees a slight increase in the risk of a White Christmas for many parts of the country - give Santa a shake to find out your local risk level. ,,,, http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=xmas;sess=

From next week the mid-range forecast models start to come into range, so we start with more regular updates and should be slowly start to hone in on the final forecast for the big day..

Next Update - Tuesday 13th December.

Netweather


h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn


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Thanks Audi. Just tried chatroom
There and got a 403 or 404 error for forbidden. Have we been namad ?
No snowflake in an avalanche ever feels responsible.
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GreystonesGal
December 7 2011, 06:29 PM
Thanks Audi. Just tried chatroom
There and got a 403 or 404 error for forbidden. Have we been namad ?
Nope..still open for discussion ,,,plenty of drink and chat about what ever is your taste.. t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn
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Windy weather, the weekend and beyond 8/12/11

By Simon from WeatherSchool UK.


Link to video ....... http://youtu.be/G4-qJhshzt0


Christmas tree hunting and hints of cold ahead...10-14 day outlook 9/12/11


Link to video........... http://youtu.be/DyfyaiLBbyg


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Month ahead - December 11, 2011
Valid from 18/12 to 14/01 2012
Sleepless nights?

Issued: Sunday 11th December 2011
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

New title for a move -'Sleepless in Wombourne'?

Whilst there haven't been any 'sleepless nights' experienced during the last week at 'Bobby-Towers' concerning the path of the chosen forecast, perhaps one or two fevered brows have had to be moped occasionally as the global model runs rolled-in.
The pattern selected has always indicated that there would be a build of Atlantic pressure during the pre-Christmas period, this anticyclonic setting a winter scenario for the remainder of December. It may be one of those times when the anticipated build of pressure doesn't materialise, and you have to hold your hands up to that fact, I still have faith however that a much more countrywide wintry scenario may develop late December into January?
The global models are still appearing to be having a devil of a time getting a handle on what's going on, some have swung violently in their indications, lately thankfully showing some hints of a pressure build albeit begrudgingly, and not as strongly as the patterns here suggested. It'll be interesting to say the least to see whether the fruits of our convictions are forthcoming and in the first instance pressure builds, will it be transitory or as we have hinted the beginning of 'true 2011-12 winter', which I've consistently believed would arrive 'late and notable'.

*18/12/11 -27/12/11*
Low pressure crosses to the east and a cold northerly dig in behind this as it transits eastward, a ridge of high pressure following from the west, the period through and up to Christmas characterised by a cold and blustery north- westerly flow some wintriness contained within the flow. It'll be a here, whether high pressure builds as a blocking feature or is transitory will be determined during this pattern period, however the cold weather looks as if it'll continue to be driven into the UK, the prospects for a 'white one' higher across the northern slice of Britain than further south where it rather cold. At the moment until the 'bells of midnight ring' I have to stick to the convictions of the pattern and not 'flip-flop', so over the Christmas period the pattern still indicates a pressure build quite strongly, perhaps Father Christmas will delivery this particular present if I continue to be a good boy?

*28/12/11 - 02/01/12*
Pressure begins to build as a block in mid-Atlantic and over Eastern Europe, the UK beneath slow moving low pressure, which will only slowly fill, with the air inherently cold within its circulation much of the precipitation will be wintry. High pressure in the Atlantic looks at it will for a time ridge through northern Britain although a slack low pressure system remains 'stalled' over southern Britain, somewhat drier and brighter later but wintry showers continue to make an appearance. There is the prospect that low pressure may be reinforced form the north bringing another few days of wintry weather as we move into 2012, a ridge of high pressure extending across the north of the UK. A brisker breeze across southern Britain accentuating the chilly feel to the conditions, wintry showers quite widespread. Northern areas should be drier and brighter at times but remaining rather cold, with sharp frosts.

*03/01/12 - 06/01/12
The confidence here is not great at all but there are indications that with high pressure sitting across the UK, the weather settles here although this anticiyclone is indicated to be drifting westward into the northern mid-Atlantic as the period ticks by, the flow initially light strengthening from the north. Meanwhile, low pressure to the southwest and west edges closer to the UK and strengthens the southerly to south-easterly flow across southern Britain. Here it may become less cold for a time, as milder air crosses to the south with a potentially wintry mix heading north into central and northern Britain as this makes an attempt to push north. High pressure to the north and west may looks to remain steadfast with this low pressure slipping away southward, much of the UK seeing a cold easterly flow establishing, this falling light as high pressure builds back from the northwest.

*07/01/12 - 15/01/12*
High pressure straddles across the north of Britain, the conditions mainly settled and rather cold, southern and southwestern areas seeing a stronger breeze from the southeast and wintry showers for many central areas, manily rain top the west and southwest where it'll be less cold perhaps

Simon & Capn Bob
weatheronline.co.uk


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Metcheck going for a green xmas:

Green Christmas Expected
Added : Sun 18 December : 13:35 BST

With Christmas Day now only a week away we can reveal that for most of Britain and Ireland a green Christmas is expected with any snow likely to be restricted to the highest mountains in the north. Despite the current cold spell, much milder conditions will develop during the coming week and whilst some colder air will try to push back into north-western areas at the end of the week, we are expecting many areas to remain mild for Christmas Day itself.

Back to today and it is a bright and cold Sunday afternoon for many areas apart from a few wintry showers around the coasts. There are plenty of sunny spells to be had and with lighter winds it doesn't feel quite as chilly as yesterday although temperatures are still below normal for the time of year. After sunset temperatures will fall away quickly with a widespread frost soon forming, but as we go through tonight it will turn milder in western areas as thickening cloud and freshening winds bring rain with them, reaching most of Ireland along with western parts of Scotland, Wales and England by dawn on Monday. Some of the rain will be heavy at times, with snow over the Scottish hills.

For Monday and that rain band will push eastwards across the rest of the country, with some heavy rain likely at times. Drier and brighter conditions will follow into western areas along with a few showers, and generally temperatures will be slightly higher than recent days. A chilly night will follow, and then for most Tuesday will be dry and bright, but rain will arrive across western areas later. It is this band of rain that will herald the much milder conditions, with temperatures in many areas reaching double figures by midweek thanks to the south-westerly winds returning.


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METOFFICE FORECAST OVER XMAS AND NEW YEAR:

UK Outlook for Saturday 24 Dec 2011 to Monday 2 Jan 2012:

Rather unsettled and often windy conditions expected across the northern half of the UK over the Christmas Weekend with early showers, some wintry, soon replaced by cloudier conditions with spells of rain and drizzle. Rain is likely to turn heavier and more persistent for a time later this weekend. Quieter and more settled further south this weekend, conditions largely dry with some fine weather at times, though it will tend to turn cloudier later. Thereafter conditions through the rest of December on into the start of January are expected to be generally unsettled, and windy at times, with periods of milder, cloudy weather and outbreaks of rain. This interspersed by colder, clearer/brighter spells with showers, some of these showers wintry at times, especially to the north.


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METOFFICE FORECAST INTO JANUARY 2012:
UK Outlook for Tuesday 3 Jan 2012 to Tuesday 17 Jan 2012:

Generally unsettled conditions are likely through the period with spells of wind and rain, particularly across northern parts. As a result temperatures will often be around average or slightly above. However, this does not preclude some shorter colder spells between weather systems, with frost and fog as well as some snowfall, chiefly in the north. Precipitation amounts will be near-normal for much of the UK, but above in the far north, with snow most favoured on high ground here. Sunshine amounts will be around or slightly above average across the UK, with the east perhaps a little brighter.

Updated: 1205 on Mon 19 Dec 2011


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Weather Services International: Northern Europe Generally Mild for Remainder of Winter
Below-Normal Temperatures Confined to Parts of Southern Europe during the January-March Period

Andover, MA, December 19, 2011 — WSI (Weather Services International) expects temperatures for the upcoming period (January-March) to average lower than normal across parts of France and Iberia with above-normal temperatures common elsewhere, most notably across the Nordic region.

“Although December has been fairly cold across the UK, most of Europe has seen a continuation of the very mild temperatures that have been the trademark of the heating season, so far. The pattern has been dominated by the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is characterized by a very strong polar vortex that effectively traps the very cold Arctic air at high latitudes,” said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. “This pattern is a reversal from that found during the last couple of winters, when a strong negative phase of the NAO resulted in very cold winters. At this time, it appears that this milder, positive phase of the NAO will generally rule the day for much of the remainder of winter, although certainly not to the magnitude that we’ve seen recently. This means that any below-normal temperatures will generally be confined to parts of southern Europe during the remainder of winter, while above-normal temperatures will be predominant across the UK, northern Europe and the Nordic region.”

In January, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region* – Warmer than normal
UK* – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland* – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland* – Colder than normal, except Iberia

In February, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
UK – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except Iberia

In March, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
UK – Colder than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except France/Benelux
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except Iberia

WSI, providing customized weather information to energy traders, will issue its next seasonal outlook on 23 January.

bout Weather Services International
Weather Services International is the world's leading provider of weather-driven business solutions for professionals in the energy, aviation and media markets, as well as multiple federal and state government agencies. WSI is a member of The Weather Channel Companies and is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts with offices in Birmingham, England. The Weather Channel Companies are owned by a consortium made up of NBC Universal and the private equity firms The Blackstone Group and Bain Capital.


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Since we haven't seen that crucial shift to a negative NAO and AO, then we continue to see an active zonal storm-pattern across the mid-latitudes. The cold that we have seen has been ocean modified with little in the way of Arctic air getting pushed south due to the stronger than normal polar vortex over the pole.

Thanks to a trough over the North Atlantic and very cold air draining off Greenland with some of the Atlantic lows tapping this air mass, this has allowed a few short-lived cold spells across Ireland and the UK, however, in the past week, the jet has tuned much more flat-lined zonal and therefore Atlantic low pressure circulations have not tapped this cold pool.

Looking ahead

We continue to await the grand shift to colder here in the UK-Ireland as well as across much of the United States and the mid-latitudes of Asia. Signs are starting to show warming of the stratosphere over Asia which is shifting the coldest pool of air across to the Greenland side of the pole, what does this mean? Well, that shift of the most intense Arctic cold pool available in all of the hemisphere shows what could be achieved if we were to see a large-scale pole-wide stratospheric warming event and I am hoping to see that encompass the entire North Pole region. This would transfer warmth from the Central Atlantic northwards up over Greenland, splitting that intense polar vortex into 2, 3 even 4 seperate pieces and it's crucial that we see a warm pool set up to the west of the UK as this would send one of those 3 or 4 pieces of truely bitter cold air our way.

I believe, it will be a process which is gradual through the first 2 weeks of January across others parts of the world before reaching us. Parts of western Asia/far east Europe & Scandinavia as well as Western North America be first to see the true Arctic air before migrating eastwards over N.A and westwards over Europe. That makes me believe a January 15th through perhaps early February is the time we fight the harshest of what could still be a bad winter here.

As stated in my video, many great UK winters of the 1960s and 70s started warm, wet and stormy, lasting through Christmas and even New Year, then turning dramatically.

Of course I also stated my concern for February and March and I believe repeat cold/snowy periods will hit well into March with periods of milder Atlantic air in between.




Mark's Christmas Messege & January Forecast


Video Link............. http://youtu.be/91Rac6IGnrk


Quick Review of My Winter Forecast! Long Way to Go Still...


Video Link............. http://youtu.be/ZLbvzuxtb0I


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Edited by Audi-Tek, December 25 2011, 08:05 PM.
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Monday 26 December
Monthly Outlook
Summary
An unsettled New Year
Northern Ireland experienced their mildest Christmas Day on record with 14.3C beating the previous record of 13.0C. For the whole of the UK it was an unusually mild day and that sets the tone for the beginning of this week. Although we will see some colder spells from time to time, the next month looks set to be on the mild side, but with wind and rain often making an appearance.
Monday 26 December-Sunday 1 January
December ends on a mild note
After one of the mildest Christmases on record, Boxing Day continues in a very similar fashion. For much of the UK the weather will be mild, cloudy and rather windy with rain and drizzle around western coasts and upslopes. Still mild but rather wild in Scotland, where heavy rain and very strong winds will move in from the north west.
Monday night will see temperatures dip down in Scotland with a risk of some frost and ice but elsewhere that mild air continuing to dominate.
Tuesday brings a wet day for Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland. Scotland may see this rain turning to snow at times across high ground. Elsewhere a very similar story to Monday with cloudy, mild and sometimes damp weather the order of the day.
A very deep area of low pressure running across the north of the UK will bring some very windy weather on Wednesday, particularly in Scotland where the winds could reach gale or severe gale force. Feeling colder than recent days with showers and longer spells of rain.
Thursday continues the unsettled theme with windy, often wet and chillier weather on the cards. The southeast of England perhaps seeing the brightest and driest weather.
Turning wet for everyone through the second half of Friday but with a brief return to milder conditions.
Staying unsettled and turning colder during the weekend with rain for many and hill snow in the north. So brollies, gloves and scaves may be required for New Year's Eve!
Monday 2 January-Sunday 8 January
Mostly unsettled for the first week of January
As we move into the new year, high pressure builds to the south of the UK. However the jet stream will continue to feed depressions around its northern flank.
In the south, some quieter spells of weather are expected in the forecast, which may lead to some frost and fog at times. However periods of wind and rain are also likely as the low pressure systems track to the north of the country.
So northern areas of the UK are likely to see the greatest impacts from the winter depressions, bringing bouts of wet and windy weather with snow at times, predominantly on the hills.
Overall, the unsettled nature of the weather will keep temperatures above average for the beginning of January.
Monday 9 January-Sunday 22 January
Little change in sight
The general theme continues through the middle of January. The high pressure to the south looks set to remain in place with depressions feeding to the north.
Some settled weather is still expected in the south at times, probably leading to frost and fog in places, but also periods of wind and rain.
To the north the unsettled theme will continue with wind and rain often on the cards.
January, which typically has the coldest daytime temperatures, could continue to see figures often hovering above average. However, snow, frost and ice is still very likely to feature in the forecast at times.
Next week

FROM THE BBC WEBSITE

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Valid from 29/12 to 25/01 2012

There has been some erosion of confidence in the patterns lately, which had performed well in indicating the overall anticipated flow; that is until now. The longer term flow had indicated that high pressure would control the period just prior to and over the Christmas period, ushering in a rather settled and potentially cold spell as a block formed, this pressure rise now looks set to be much further southwest so the inflection is somewhat different than anticipated.
Through the Christmas period with pressure low to the northwest or north and higher to the south or southwest, the flow will be from off the mid or North Atlantic, so alternating between mild and cool conditions rather than cold, showers or longer spells of rain for all areas and often rather windy, this perhaps offsetting the benefits of the maritime flow? The New Year period may see colder weather filtering south but remaining unsettled throughout the holiday period.
The opening of 2012 sees all areas unsettled and rather cool to cold with the threat of wintry precipitation increasing, this mainly showery in nature and although not exclusively the highest threat will be found across northern Britain and higher ground. Through the middle of January the Atlantic becomes more active once more with less cold conditions moving through on a brisk westerly with spells of wind and rain for all areas.
As the forecast period draws to a close there is the hint of a rise in pressure across southern Britain.

29/12/11*
The flow through until this period sees conditions dictated by low pressure and a maritime orientated origin, low pressure in control.
It'll often be windy at times bring a cool mixture of showers or longer spells of rain, there will be the chance of wintry showers, this most likely across higher ground of the north and west, rain mostly to lower levels.
Temperatures are likely to seesaw as systems track close to the UK, the flow swinging from the west or northwest to the south-west at times, the benefits of this perhaps offset by the strength of wind.

*30/12/11 - 13/01/12*
During this period it looks as if low pressure will be in control for the most part, it'll be feeling increasingly cold too.
It seems as if low pressure will become slow moving and complex over the UK, stalled by higher pressure well to the east or northeast, all areas rather unsettled. There'll be a mix of precipitation through this period, generally of rain across the more southern areas of the country at first, however there is a risk of seeing something a bit wintrier in nature as conditions become colder.

*14/01/12 - 18/01/12 *
Turning les cold here as the flow swings around to the west or southwest, low pressure still in control so remaining unsettled.
It'll be windy for much of the time with low pressure close at hand, rain will affect all areas of the UK from time to time, some of it heavy particularly in the west and north where gales can be expected.
Southern areas of the UK should become drier as a pressure generally rises, with a ridge extending across southern Britain, remaining rather unsettled and breezy across the north and west with outbreaks of rain.

*19/01/12 - 24/01/12*
High pressure looks as if it'll be building across the southern half of the UK, so at least England and Wales become brighter, drier and settled with the risk of overnight mist, fog and frost increasing.
The north remains mixed at first but here too the conditions should settle later.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=Month-ahead


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Edited by Audi-Tek, December 27 2011, 08:27 PM.
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UK Long Range Weather Forecast - Winter 2011/2012


ExactaWeather.com
James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster) ??? ??? ??? h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e


Sunday 25th December 2011

The mild weather that the models predicted for Christmas Day won over in the end, dashing any hopes of a white Christmas across many parts of the UK. I generally don't tend to pay much attention to what the models are saying when I issue my forecasts, which has proven successful for me within my past forecasts to date, when the models and others organisations have proved inaccurate. (See Accuracy Page Here)

However, my chosen methods of analysis have proven to be unsuccessful on this occasion. This forecasting error will also be reflected upon in the final winter outcome and placed on the Exacta Weather accuracy page too. I will however continue to use the same methodology that has served me pretty well to date. I will also incorporate any new aspects of relevance from my future research into my forecasts, of which I will always offer as a FREE long range weather forecast/forecast to the general public.

I have had a large quantity of emails asking me if the last two winters were simply one-offs, due to the milder conditions that we have been experiencing so far this winter?

Unfortunately the last two winters were not just one-off situations. Now although this statement will take some time to come to realisation for the warmists of this world, whilst they revel in their milder Christmas conditions. The next two to three decades will see the UK experience much more frequent and harsher winters. This is also one particular area that I have strongly emphasised on since 2009, and that I will also continue to emphasise on more in any of my future updates and findings.

As I have stated many times before, I never expected December to be the worst month of this winter in meteorological terms. I have also stated that I expect these conditions to prevail as we head into January and February.

January certainly looks promising for this at present, in terms of some true cold and snow across Scotland and northern regions of the UK. Although once again there is likely to be some periods of moderation at times, and this is most likely to be reflected in any areas further south.

February should prevail further in comparison to January, and this is when I feel we are likely to see the most severe part of this winter. A cold start to spring 2012 is also possible, with some especially heavy and widespread snowfalls across Britain and parts of Ireland.

As I also stated in my 2nd September 2011 update that we could expect “a notable increase in usual wind strengths for this time of year across many parts of the UK, that will result in frequent and potentially damaging gale force winds and strong stormy features throughout autumn and WINTER.”

I also stated on the same date that “Huge swirly low pressure systems also offer the potential for widespread disruption from heavy snowfall across many parts of the UK including the South.”

Although confidence is medium range with the factors in Italics at present, these could also prove to be a frequent feature at times within the remainder of winter, and this is why I included this within my update on the 2nd September 2011 (before any other forecaster or weather organisation).

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html



Posted Image

Neednt say anymore about the above latest update,,by Mr Madden.





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Update from Mark Vogan about his take on the northern hemisphere weather pattern over the next few weeks.




Video Link ............... http://youtu.be/kxq3ydKTE_w


More on potential -AO and how this doesn't mean an instant flip to cold for UK-Ireland


Video Link ......... http://youtu.be/Q_3d5RqG2Sw


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How cold will it go? 10-14 day outlook 9/1/12
From: WeatherSchool


Link................... http://youtu.be/fTRPccGlQWE
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18:14 audi-tek: Maybe...just maybe....we could yet see some snow at long last......at least it would appear..it could get cold ....

Posted Image


Link to link to an animation of temperature values ........ http://policlimate.com/weather/current/gfs_t2m_anom_eur_f.html



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Edited by Audi-Tek, January 9 2012, 08:43 PM.
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This is just for fun and for discussing anything interesting coming up weather wise, its not connected to any other websites or any previous chatrooms. all snow addicts welcome


See below link to a Winter 11/12 chatroom:

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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION: Monday 9 January, 2012
By Mark Vogan


Video Link............ http://youtu.be/JRKLDoyvPOM


This is just for fun and for discussing anything interesting coming up weather wise, its not connected to any other websites or any previous chatrooms. all snow addicts welcome


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Temperatures cooler for the rest of January? 10/1/12
From Simon Keeling of WeatherSchool


Link .............. http://youtu.be/aOilimG3OZo


-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n :( :( :( :( :( :( :( -ma-d- -ma-d- -ma-d- -ma-d-


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ssued: Monday 2nd January 2012

*February*
The month begins on a westerly note with high pressure to the south and west, this becoming a large feature to the west through the first week, a colder northerly digging in as low pressure clears to the east of the British Isles.
High pressure reasserts over the UK and persists as a large moving feature over the UK, through to mid-month until declining only to be replaced by a developing feature to the east, the potential for a rather wintry spell to establish as low pressure to the west and southwest attempts to push into the UK.
This block should hold fast so a rather mixed regime of colder weather entrenched to the east, with less cold and eventually milder weather desperately attempting to dislodge this, on current evidence without much success until the latter stages of the month.
Less cold weather should reach western and north-western Britain, but all areas will see a rather strong southerly to south-easterly flow for much of the time, central and eastern Britain remains rather chilly for much of the time throughout.

*March*
The anticyclonic block looks as if it’ll be maintained, so much so that there is startlingly little to suggest that this will be removed through until mid-March, in the interim it’ll be high pressure conditions to the east, a strong southerly flow to the west, this only easing as high pressure periodically ridges through the UK and stalled low pressure to the west fills and moves away. Any precipitation should be concentrated through western and north-western where it’ll be very windy at times too with gales at times.
Through the middle of the month at long last the block should be shunted out of the way allowing low pressure to break through and the Atlantic floodgates open to the whole the UK. Showers or longer outbreaks of rain, it’ll still be on the cool side for many and windy, drier weather establishing once more across the south as pressure rises.
The month ends where it began with yet another strong rise of pressure, an anticyclone drifting into the UK to establish to the east, another block forming the halt the progress of Atlantic systems. Bright and sunny for many, a chilly and brisk easterly top north-easterly flow establishing to take us through to the beginning of April.


This forecast is copyright Weather Consultancy Services and Weatherweb.net.


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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION: Wed 11 January, 2012 by Mark Vogan.



Video Link ................. http://youtu.be/yYsKtdgBpq8


-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n Mark....time is running out,as this rate, we will still be looking for snow come April.

:( :( :( -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn ??? ???


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A colder week ahead as jet splits 11/1/12
From: Simon Keeling of WeatherSchool's Channel



Video Link................ http://youtu.be/2m5MZm_V2Sk


-c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l At least its something to watch out for,,the chance of some cold,,rather than mild towards the end of Jan.

-c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l



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Latest news and views from Brian Gaze, TWO's founder.


Posted Wed, 11 Jan 2012 09:19:58

Things are looking very interesting at the moment, and what is almost certain is that the second half of January will be colder than the first. What’s far less clear is how much of the cold stacking up over eastern Europe is coming in our direction. As I said last night I think the coldest of the weather will stay over the continent, but during the next couple of weeks we could see scenarios where milder Atlantic meets the colder continental air close to or over Britain, and that could potentially bring some snow. It’s guesswork at the moment to be more specific than that, and the key really is where the boundary between mild and cold will be. What is clear in the shorter term is that today and tomorrow (for parts of the country) will be the last mild ones for a while, so enjoy the warmth while it lasts because it does look as though we’ll at least get a taste of winter very soon now.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/latest.aspx


-c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l



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10-14 day outlook 12/1/12
From: Simon Keeling of WeatherSchool's Channel


Video Link ................. http://youtu.be/R6ZeOTxgrFQ


And still the outlook-uncertainty-continues-... -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn ??? ??? ??? ???



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Latest news and views from Brian Gaze, TWO's founder.
Forecast and outcome?
Posted Thu, 12 Jan 2012 08:04:32

Last Sunday I made a post called ‘Chance of cold?’ which included forecast charts for next Monday generated from the ECM and GFS computer models. This morning we’re halfway to that forecast time so I’ve included the latest ECM and GFS charts for comparison to see how they’re doing. The new charts should be a lot more accurate because they’re not looking as far ahead. So what’s the general picture? The overall pattern is similar in all of the charts with blocking high pressure over Britain and to the east, so that has been well forecast. However, there are some significant differences in the details. In particular the cold pooling to the east is more fragmented and less intense, and the centre of the blocking high pressure seems to be slightly further south. In terms of the weather in Britain this means that although temperatures will be on the low side early next week it probably wont be as cold as was looking likely. It also means that later in the week a change to a cool westerly flow is very much more likely than an easterly air stream. Despite this it looks like a very interesting period of weather, with colder conditions at times. The second half of next week could bring significant sleet or snow to high ground in the north.

Posted Image

Posted Image


p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k -il-l- -il-l- ??? ??? ??? -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn -il-l- -il-l-



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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION: Like the idea of cold pool shifting west over Europe next week
By Mark Vogan


Video Link..................... http://youtu.be/AYuDG-9elXg


So by next Sat the 21th we should see weather cold enough for snow at least....Time will tell, not that far away now after all.

-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n


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Is winter a week away? 13/1/12
From: Simon Keeling of WeatherSchool's Channel


Video Link ...................... http://youtu.be/gwmv8ys5UCI


??? ??? ??? It could turn cold enough for snow... h-e-h-e h-e-h-e Than again it mightn't snow... -ma-d- -ma-d- -ma-d- -il-l- -il-l-

Its Squeaky bum time ...over the next week or so, for any snow lovers... -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn


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Latest news and views from Brian Gaze, TWO's founder.

Cold and unsettled – heads up
Posted Fri, 13 Jan 2012 07:18:17

Cold, dry and frosty during the next few days, but then next week gets interesting. The high pressure block over Britain looks likely to be broken down quite slowly and there are some signs that we’ll move towards a cold and unsettled pattern through the second half of next week. It’s too early to be confident about this, and there isn’t really cross model agreement on how things will play out. None the less there does seem to be a risk of wintry conditions with the possibility of lowland sleet or snow by next Friday. I’ve pasted in the ECM 850hPA / thickness forecast chart for 00Z on Friday 20th January which shows cold air covering most of the country. 850hPA values of -5C or and thickness values of 528dam or lower are covering much of the country, and with low pressure close by that suggests the chance of rain, sleet and snow. I’ll post regular updates on this.

Posted Image

-c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n




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Legendary weather forecaster Michael Fish presents his weekly forecast on Netweather.tv - often looking ahead to the upcoming weekend weather and beyond into the following week.



Video Link .................... http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=michaelfish;sess=



-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n :( :( p-o-pc-o-rn ??? ??? ??? -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn


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