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Are We Set For A Long, Cold Winter?
Topic Started: September 26 2011, 10:21 PM (7,106 Views)
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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION: Arctic air fills eastern Europe Sat-Wed, then transfers UK-bound!

By Mark Vogan


Video Link.................. http://youtu.be/8OK6PIEPtws


-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n I wonder will the charts, Mark ,,show the same kind of outlook, come Sunday night.

-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n


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Major update: Rest of January and early February 14/1/12
From: Simon Keeling of Weather School's Channel Jan 14,


Video Link ............. http://youtu.be/pAkVjax50jQ


-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n Well that outlook from Simon, isnt great, if one is a real snow lover.Maybe some snow showers around the last weekend of Jan, and than temps rising again as we get into first week of Feb.

-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n I wonder could he be wrong,by sticking to the GFS charts, for his outlook.
But that forecast is p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k -il-l- -il-l- -il-l-


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Latest news and views from Brian Gaze, TWO's founder.

Cold and unsettled? – Update
Posted Sat, 14 Jan 2012 07:34:26

In my post yesterday morning I said it looked as though the second half of next week could see a switch to a colder and unsettled spell of weather, but that cross model agreement wasn’t present. The ECM and GFS computer models were showing different outcomes with ECM favouring a much more wintry outlook. Statistically ECM is slightly better than the GFS, but only by a relatively small margin. So what’s the picture this morning? It looks as though the ECM operational run has done something of a Grand Old Duke Of York (marched us up to the top of the hill and then marched us back down again) on us, and although this morning still it suggests colder and less settled weather late next week the set up looks more tenuous, shorter lasting, and not quite as cold. The GFS has modified its outlook to an extent, but despite that is still showing a more moderate and less cold picture with close to average temperatures and little if any snow away from high ground in the north. My guess is the GFS is under cooking the cold, whilst the ECM is still overstating it, but getting much closer to the outcome we can expect which will be a blend of what the 2 models are forecasting. I’ll post another update this evening when the mid-day operational computer model runs and ensemble data become available.

-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n ??? ??? ??? -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn ??? ???


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Tonights update to above post from Brian Gaze, TWO's founder.


Cold spell update?
Posted Sat, 14 Jan 2012 19:54:27

Just very briefly, my thoughts are the same as this morning. Some places may see sleet or snow during the second half of next week as colder weather develops. Extent and duration of colder weather is very uncertain still. More tomorrow.



-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? :( :( :( -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn


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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION: The cold is coming whether you like it or not!

By Mark Vogan



Video Link ............... http://youtu.be/sr_t63w1rwM

-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n .Who do we believe now...Simon or Mark.? Think we should toss a coin maybe,,,but Mark than is going all cold,where as Simon, isnt mainly..I will stick with Mark for Jan ... t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn


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Latest news and views from Brian Gaze, TWO's founder.

Chance of cold reduced
Posted Sun, 15 Jan 2012 11:42:40

I said last night “Extent and duration of colder weather is very uncertain still” and this morning I’m glad I threw that caveat in to the post because it does look as though the threat of a significant cold spell next week has again receded. If you read my posts further down the page you’ll see that for much of the last few days the ECM model had been going for a sharper and longer cold outbreak than the GFS, but overnight and this morning we’ve seen the two models move much closer together and towards a blended solution for late next week. What that means is that although sleet and snow still can’t be ruled out, it does look odds on for any wintry weather to be mostly over high ground, and particularly in the north.

-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n .Well now,that aint good for snow lovers... -il-l- -il-l- -ma-d- -ma-d-

Well now Mr Mark Vogan, are you still, sticking to your very cold outlook... ??? ???

-il-l- -il-l- -il-l- -il-l- p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n


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The week ahead
From: Simon Keeling of Weather School's Channel Jan 15,



Video Link ................ http://youtu.be/Jj4PUn6JINs


-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn Think I will keep the white flag down for another week.Just maybe,and only just maybe...we could get a shower of snow,,come the end of Jan

-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n ??? ??? ??? -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn



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Well Mark Vogan is positive as far as cold enough for snow is concerned.

LONG RANGE DISCUSSION: Very Cold Week Ahead For Europe!
By Mr Mark Vogan.

Link.............. http://youtu.be/-igZxf6rQqM


-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n One thing I will say..Mark sure doesnt throw in towel, very easily.

h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn h-e-h-e h-e-h-e



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10-14 day outlook & early Feb thoughts 16/1/12
From: Weather School's Channel Jan 16, 2012


Link .................... http://youtu.be/dOv7dBBnHNQ


Thats about it for this winter { 2011/12 } if what Simon says holds true, as far as our chances of getting snow goes.


Must practice throwing in the towel and get the white flag ready.. :( :( :( -il-l-

Will wait till the end of Jan,,just in case he is wrong of course.. -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n

Anyway no harm in doing some practice runs,just in case,he is correct.


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p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k -il-l- -il-l- -il-l- -il-l- -il-l-


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Month ahead - January 14, 2012
Valid from 24/12 to 20/01 2012
Cool & unsettled month end

Issued: Saturday 14th January 2012
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob


If it wasn't for the currently settled, pleasantly sunny, crisp and frosty weather, winter so far could be considered as being rather 'dull' in nature?

Will this be winters last gasp, one desperate attempt to redeem its reputation for being able to stage something which many of us would consider fitting for seasonal triumph, I doubt it will manage it?
High pressure is currently bringing a quiet and 'cool' rather than cold apology for winter, this looks set to be swept away by less cold conditions as Atlantic air moves back through the UK on westerly flow, this too indicated to be replaced by an unsettled and colder flow from the northwest, but perhaps far from what many would consider fitting for the mid to late-winter period.
As we move through into February high pressure looks as if it'll be taking control, the extended outlook therefore looking settled and akin to the current settled, cool to frosty cold conditions.

*24 / 01/ 2012*
High pressure looks as if it'll be declining away and with it too the currently rather pleasant, crisp, clear and cool conditions, replaced albeit temporarily by cloudier and milder Atlantic air brought through areas on westerly flow driven in by low pressure to the north or northwest. It'll be windy for a time across the north with gales, rain too will affect all areas of the UK, this clearing to brighter skies and blustery showers as cleared and colder conditions dig in from the northwest and north, some wintry precipitation developing as it generally turns colder for a time across all areas, particularly but not exclusively across higher ground of the north.
*25/ 01/ 2012 - 31/ 01/ 2012*
The unsettled weather looks as if it'll continue through this period as low pressure will remain in control of the overall pattern, at first the flow should be quite mobile although there are indications that later low pressure may stall over the UK. Some wintriness is to be expected during this period as a combination of low pressure, inherently cold air drawn within its circulation is a recipe for some sleet or snow, the exact detail of this cannot be pinned down at this extended range, but is looking highly likely.
Later in the period It'll be remaining on the 'cool to cold' side of the scale, although that said where the winds do fall lighter, especially later in the period as low pressure become slow moving, complex and remains as a filling, slack feature, it'll be cold, especially overnight. Generally any precipitation should become rather showery in nature, it is possible that occasionally more organised bands of showers may merge together at times but this is not expected to be widespread as the period draws to a close.

*01/ 02/ 2012 - 11 /02 /2012*
A pattern change looks likely as the new month dawns, the flow for a time will be from the west so becoming less cold, and it should become more settled as high pressure takes charge of the pattern a large anticyclone developing close to the UK.
At this extended range it looks as if this pressure build should take place initially to the southwest, the centre gradually drifting northeast across the bulk of the UK. It'll become settled and quiet across most areas, a return of frost and fog potentially overnight, brighter and sunny through the day where this readily clears away.
For a time high pressure remains over the UK, as does the relatively quiet and still conditions, as this anticyclone drifts to the southeast, a cloudier and less cold south-westerly drift sets in across the northwest, some patchy rain to be expected here, whilst the bulk of the country remains calm.

*12/ 02 /2012 - 15/ 02/ 2012*
On all the current evidence it looks as if through mid-February could turn more unsettled for a time as low pressure displaces high pressure to the east, it'll be turning colder too with the potential for some wintriness to return to most areas.
The confidence in this is not too great at this extended range as on balance higher pressure is indicated to be rather more persistent in some patterns under consideration.

Simon & Capn Bob
weatheronline.co.uk



-il-l- -il-l- -il-l- -il-l- p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k ??? ??? ??? -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n


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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION: Coldest Air of Winter To Sweep E to W Across Europe!

By Mr MarkVogan on Jan 16, 2012



Video Link........................... http://youtu.be/EvnCsSlmS_0



Looks like you are on your own now,Mark,as far as cold enough for snow is concerned for any time during Jan or Feb.

Time running out fast ..... :( :( :( :( :( :( :( :( ??? ??? Still hope you are right...but, but -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n

-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n



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The latest Met Office forecast shows just how much uncertainty there is in the charts/models presently.We are still no wiser today,if we can write of snow over the next few weeks,if we are are going to go, by the latest updates.Maybe Mark Vogan, could yet be right against all the odds.


UK Outlook for Sunday 22 Jan 2012 to Tuesday 31 Jan 2012:

Sunday is likely to be chilly and windy, with a mixture of sunny spells and scattered showers. Showers should be most frequent in the north, with snow on hills, whilst the south should remain driest. Similar conditions will likely persist through the following days, with further showers and some more persistent rain likely to affect many areas. Temperatures will probably be near average, occasionally mild, but with overnight frosts possible in any quieter interludes. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the weather during the last few days of January. The slightly more probable scenario at present is that conditions will remain similar to those described above. However there is also a significant risk of much colder weather becoming established right across the UK, with snow in places and widespread overnight frosts.

Updated: 1310 on Tue 17 Jan 2012

UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 Feb 2012 to Wednesday 15 Feb 2012:

The forecast for the first half of February is very uncertain. As with the day 6 to 15 forecast, there appear to be two main scenarios, each equally probable, but which are very different. It is also fairly likely that the prevailing weather type at the end of January will continue into February. The first scenario consists of a changeable westerly or southwesterly type, with rain at times (amounts greatest in the west), and with temperatures noticeably above average for early February, with only occasional frosts. The alternative scenario is that very much colder weather, with winds from an easterly or northeasterly quarter, will prevail well into February, bringing widespread frosts, and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that was most vulnerable to snowfall.

Updated: 1436 on Tue 17 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html


:) :) :) :) :) -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n


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Winter could be just around the corner 18/1/12
From Weather School Channel


Video Link ..........http://youtu.be/WMxPzpzD7NI


Well,well,,things look away better today,,if Simon is right...for some cold and snow towards the end of Jan.. t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn

h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e


Updated: 1436 on Tue 17 Jan 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html
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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION: Interesting looking flip coming in AO/NAO!
From Mark Vogan




Video Link ................. http://youtu.be/2GxA8GkgfSE


-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n Still light at the end of the tunnel maybe yet for some snow.
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-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn


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Weather and Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan Blog.

Cold northwesterly flow blows wintry showers over Scotland, perhaps elsewhere across UK later today.

Although perhaps not UK-wide, nor barbarically cold, the pattern for the period from late this week and through the weekend I had been banging on about for the best part of two weeks now has at least showed some sort of truth. Temps have steadily fallen through today with the wind growing ever more chillier. Showers which have been fast and frequent from a west, northwest direction have also been very snowy across the Highlands, however, later this afternoon, precipitation has been turning more wintry with lower elevations of the Central Belt, such as the Glasgow area having endured a beating from lively hailshowers which I myself was caught out in whilst trying to reload, wash and fuel my truck for my next shift tomorrow morning, wasn't pleasant!. When I drove home, I was greeted to a white blanet in front of me which was the Campsie Hills, Lennoxtown itself saw an ever so light coating on grassy surfaces as well as on cars.
Though, I myself have mixed feelings about this weekend, I can safely say, that I got some of this forecast correct even though many scoffed at a cold forecast in the backdrop of warmer and warmer model runs. It has been a winter of tough forecasting, testing even the brilliant, world class long range forecasters to the limit in this changing climate in which we live. The normally obvious, major players in the meteorologist tick list haven't been playing ball and with the collapsing of the La Nina, the strongly positive AO/NAO and now sharp flip to generally negative, has meant it very difficult to forecast timings of large-scale pattern changes, the return of winter to the mid-latitudes following a near hemisphere-wide warm autumn and early winter.
As for our weather here, well tonight may be interesting. If you live anywhere in Scotland, down at low levels even, don't be surprised if it snows where you are tonight. Yes, more showers will pile in in areas and with temps continuing to fall away, snow is quite possible.

In order for me to be happier and I certainly was this afternoon when I saw the snow, I would like to see some surprise dustings or coatings across lower level parts of England and Wales, even Ireland to justify some sort of victory in at least the late week snowfall I had expected and certainly the return to colder weather which was originally outlined by me back at least 10 days ago.

-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n Maybe next week onwards for a few days.Dont know of any forecaster, who has got this winter right so far.



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Looking like cold weather is on the way by this time next week.
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