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Wintry showers on Thursday 26th Jan; Discussion of Thursday's snow potential
Topic Started: January 24 2012, 12:53 AM (495 Views)
Fergal (IWO)
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Things look like getting colder for the second half of the week, with nighttime frosts becoming widespread on Thursday and Friday.

A cold front crosses the country during Wednesday, introducing much colder air in its wake. Showers will feed in off the Atlantic during Thursday, affecting the western and northern half of the country, where they will fall as rain, sleet, hail, and above around 150 metres - snow. During Thursday evening and night the snowline may lower, so some low-level areas inland could see a few brief flurries.

We'll keep an eye on the models nearer the time, as they have been having problems with the finer details of late.
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Mark (IWO)
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00Z shows no change to 18z. High ground in west and south west, and all parts of the northwest and north looking favourable for wintry showers. A coating is likely on mountains at least.
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
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Mark (IWO)
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LATEST FROM MET EIREANN

General : It will be a lot colder than recent weeks, with frost at night and some icy patches too. Wednesday night : Cold and breezy with clear spells and occasional showers of rain, hail and sleet. Before dawn, a few may fall as snow on high ground. Widespread frost also, despite the wind, with icy patches. Lowest air temperatures -1 to plus 3 C. Thursday will be a very cold, blustery day, with temperatures in low single figures probably ranging just 3 to 6 C. There will be widespread rain or hail showers, with some sleet and hill snow at times. Winds strong and gusty westerly. Cold and windy overnight also, with clear spells and occasional rain and hail showers, with a few possibly falling as sleet or wet snow on high ground. Winds will be strong and gusty west to northwesterly. Lowest temperatures 1 to 4 C., with frost and icy patches in places, despite the wind. Friday will be cool and breezy with bright or sunny spells and occasional rain or hail showers. Top temperatures 5 to 7 C., in fresh and gusty northwest winds. Very cold Friday night as winds fall off light, with a sharp to severe frost and icy roads. Some patches of mist and dense fog are likely also. Lowest temperatures -2 to plus 2 C. The outlook for the weekend is not certain yet. There are some indications for a lot of dry, cool weather for Saturday and Sunday, with slack winds and cold frosty, foggy nights. But milder, breezy weather, with southwest winds may yet win out and in this scenario, more changeable conditions would prevail, with some rain at times and little or no frost.

LATEST FROM UK MET OFFICE

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Colder Thursday and Friday, with sunny spells and lighter winds. Wintry showers chiefly affecting northern and western parts, with some hill snow. Rain and hill snow perhaps spreading eastwards Saturday.

Updated: 0238 on Tue 24 Jan 2012

The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
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Fergal (IWO)
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Thursday has come into the NAE's timeframe now but to be honest both it and the Hirlam are about as useful as a snowplough this winter. Comparing both models' output to actual sounding data today shows that even at 6 hours out they are both getting the basics wrong, eg. 950 hPa temperature of +7°C for Valentia at 18Z this evening when the actual sounding measured +3 °C, which was exactly what the GFS predicted. They're also well out on their theta-e and theta-w values, whereas the GFS is bang on. I'd be inclined to disregard these two models and side with the GFS data for Thursday's chances, so rain and hail showers in western and northern parts during the day, moving towards the northeast later. Snow above around 200-250 meters, possibly 100 metres inland later in the night. Could be some rumbles of thunder along Atlantic coastal areas during the day with very cold mid-upper levels.
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Mark (IWO)
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It goes without saying that tonight and tomorrow will feel bitterly cold in a strong nw wind. Showers will be frequent across the north and west with many pushing well inland, even to the east coast. Most showers will be a mix of rain, sleet, hail, graupel. Snow showers are likely to be confined to above 150-200 metres (that excludes most of the population). The snowline will rise gradually on Friday.

This wintry weather is very similar to whatw e saw on 13 Dec last. Hill tops will see snow settling, as will higher ground (above 200 asl) in western and northwestern counties.

Latest GEFS run for tomorrow morning


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Mark (IWO)
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From Garda Press Office

Weather conditions are expected to deteriorate from this evening on, affecting road users both this evening (25th January) and tomorrow (26th January). Gardaí are urging members of the public to drive safely in these conditions, leaving plenty of space between themselves and the vehicle in front, and to not undertake any unnecessary journeys. Further information is available from www.winterready.ie, www.garda.ie, www.met.ie, www.rsa.ie.

From MET

Tonight

Tonight will be very cold and icy with temperatures falling to between minus 1 and plus 2 degrees. After a mainly dry start wintry showers of rain, hail and sleet will spread from the west, falling as snow on the high ground.


Tomorrow

Thursday will be cold and blustery with a mix of sunny spells and wintry showers of rain, hail and sleet; and some snow on northern hills during the morning. Highest temperatures of just 4 to 7 degrees with fresh west to northwest winds.

Outlook

Thursday night will be cold and breezy with further wintry showers of rain, hail or sleet and some snow on hills or mountains. Frost and icy patches will develop in sheltered areas. Friday will be cold with sunny spells and some further wintry showers in the west and north. There'll be some good sunny spells also and the showers will gradually die out. Highest temperatures of 5 to 8 degrees with light breezes.
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
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pdoyle76
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O snow maybe. Nice

Is this where all the weather heads from boards moved to? Bloody hard to keep up with all the sites. Is irishweatheronline.com coming back too?
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Rhonin
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I see on Met.ie's outlook it now says

"Current indications suggest that next week will be very cold with temperatures of just 3 to 6 degrees by day and with sharp or severe frosts at night.
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Mark (IWO)
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Below is an animation of the snow risk for Ireland and the UK over the next 24 hours.

You can see that the risk of snow pertains to high ground in Ulster, N Leinster and N Connacht on this GEFS 12Z model run. It is a marginal event and snow very well may fall at levels below 150-200m.

The colours indicate the % chance of snow falling as reflected in the right hand colour coded bar. The time and date are featured on the top right of the map.

Don't forget to post any weather updates in the 'Current Conditions January 2011' thread.

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Rhonin
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Woke up to snow falling pretty heavy and sticking in Collooney, Sligo. I had to clear it off the car before leaving for work. Great to see it back albeit for a short while :)
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Mark (IWO)
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Wintry showers will continue throughout the day and overnight with high ground in the west and northwest most at risk. Tomorrow morning could see a more orgnaised band of rain,sleet and snow affect higher ground in the northern half of Ulster
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Mark (IWO)
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Wintry showers, mainly of sleet and hail, will continue to affect western and northern counties overnight. Some of the heavier showers will drift further inland on a moderate nw-w breeze. Snow is unlikely except for upland locations (above 200-250m).

Ice Warning Northern Ireland

Icy stretches are expected to form on untreated surfaces, especially in places affected by showers. The showers will fall as snow above about 250 metres, but there may be temporary slush deposits to lower levels. The public should be aware of possible travel disruption.


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Fergal (IWO)
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Knock Airport reported a max of 3 cm of lying snow at 9 and 10 am today, but it was gone by 2 pm. Max temperature for the day there was only 3.3 °C, which I think is the coldest day so far this winter?!
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Mark (IWO)
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Temp 1c at Oak Park in Carlow at 9AM rising to 8C at Valentia
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