Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]
Add Reply
Cold prospects Late Jan/Early Feb
Topic Started: January 20 2012, 04:22 PM (1,803 Views)
Mark (IWO)
Member Avatar
Admin

This thread is dedicated to discussion of the computer models ahead of and during a possible cold spell of weather in late January and early February.

Please confine any general comments about this period to the 'discussion' thread in 'General'.
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Audi-Tek
Member Avatar
Prince
[ *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  * ]
Major update: Winter arriving next week 20/1/12
From: Weather School Channel Jan 20, 2012



Video Link .................. http://youtu.be/-C-YyO8r-r8


-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n Well interesting times ahead maybe, for snow lovers.

-c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l -c-o-o-l t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e t-on--gu-e h-e-h-e h-e-h-e -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn



See below link to a Winter 11/12 chatroom:

http://client16.addonchat.com/chat.php?id=539786&s
Why is cloud 9 so amazing ? What is wrong with cloud 8 ?
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Mark (IWO)
Member Avatar
Admin

GEFS keeps the Arctic Oscillation firmly into negative territory.

See first attachment.

For any real chance of an easterly.northeasterly setting up we need blocking out to our west i.e. an end to the zonal jetstream dominated weather pattern of the past two months. Therefore, we should be looking for a negative or at least neutral NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation)

As the second attachment shows, there is some disagreement at this stage as to whether we will see this.

Attached to this post:
Attachments: gfs_ao_bias.png (587.55 KB)
Attachments: nao.sprd2.gif (72.38 KB)
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Mark (IWO)
Member Avatar
Admin

Latest from Mark Vogan

The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Audi-Tek
Member Avatar
Prince
[ *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  * ]
Posted Image

Posted Image

Posted Image

Posted Image

Posted Image

Posted Image


-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n A bit of a downgrade on the short term, as far as 12z run goes ....
Why is cloud 9 so amazing ? What is wrong with cloud 8 ?
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Mark (IWO)
Member Avatar
Admin

I think it will be the last day or two of Jan and into February before we see any sustained cold. We look like staying a cool zonal setup up to next weekend at least. We are likely to see some frosty nights come Thursday/Friday though.
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Audi-Tek
Member Avatar
Prince
[ *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  * ]
Posted Image

Posted Image

Posted Image



-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n Maybe it will turn colder, over the next few days,,maybe more so than the present charts show.
Why is cloud 9 so amazing ? What is wrong with cloud 8 ?
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Mark (IWO)
Member Avatar
Admin

Latest GEFS was a downgrade for extent of cold late next week but it is still trending for even colder weather by the turn of the month. The ECM is out at 6-6.45pm. At the moment the 12Z GEFS is similar to the 00z ECM. Will be interesting to see if the ECM does anything in the coming run.
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Jessie
Member Avatar
Light breeze
[ *  *  * ]
Mark (IWO)
January 20 2012, 07:15 PM
Latest GEFS was a downgrade for extent of cold late next week but it is still trending for even colder weather by the turn of the month. The ECM is out at 6-6.45pm. At the moment the 12Z GEFS is similar to the 00z ECM. Will be interesting to see if the ECM does anything in the coming run.
Welcome back ! :)
A rose must remain with the sun and the rain or its lovely promise won't come true.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Audi-Tek
Member Avatar
Prince
[ *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  * ]
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION: Going bold for cold in February!

By Mark Vogan..


Video Link ................. http://youtu.be/W9DJDEuFq2k


-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n Mark you didnt mention us here in Ireland,,, ??? ??? ??? ???
Why is cloud 9 so amazing ? What is wrong with cloud 8 ?
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Fergal (IWO)
Member Avatar
Admin

I really don't have much respect for that guy. Another one of these charlatans who's really in it for the hits and doesn't know a whole lot about what he's talking about. He's been desperately wrong this winter, and desperate in his attempts to "hold onto the idea" that it will be cold. Of course it will - the more time you throw (censor) at a wall then sooner or later it will stick!
http://weatheire.yolasite.com
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Audi-Tek
Member Avatar
Prince
[ *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  * ]
Detailed 10-14 day outlook 21/1/2012
From: Weather School Channel Jan 21, 2012


Video Link ................. http://youtu.be/66H6uFuwdiM


-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n Maybe it isnt going to be as cold,as we had hoped, still time for change one way or the other I guess over the next few weeks. ??? ??? ??? p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn
Why is cloud 9 so amazing ? What is wrong with cloud 8 ?
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Audi-Tek
Member Avatar
Prince
[ *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  * ]
Latest news and views from Brian Gaze, TWO's founder.


Colder next week? – heads up
Posted Sat, 21 Jan 2012 07:24:36

There’s a lot of uncertainty about the weather next week, but there is a chance of it turning a lot colder from the east as a blocking area of high pressure becomes established and cuts off the flow of milder weather from the west which we’ve had for much of the winter so far. This will allow bitterly cold air from to back west across Europe, but as usual in this type of set up it’s not clear how far that push will get, and the computer models aren’t yet consistent enough to be confident about the way it will go. My guess at the moment is that the coldest upper level air will probably slip to the south of Britain, but that we’ll see lower temperatures as colder surface level air is advected off the continent into eastern Britain.

-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n Brian Gaze, seems to change his tune a lot,Tomorrow could be saying mild,,just as quick as he says cold today. -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn
Why is cloud 9 so amazing ? What is wrong with cloud 8 ?
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Audi-Tek
Member Avatar
Prince
[ *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  * ]
Month ahead - January 21, 2012
Valid from 31/01 to 27/02 2014
Winter on the way?

Issued: Saturday 21st January 2012
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

Winter, which, being full of care, makes summer's welcome thrice more wish'd, more rare. William Shakespeare, Sonnet LVI

It is one of those occasions when I somehow I'd wished I'd remained under the duvet this morning as I'd have missed the deadline for compiling this forecast and although still being in trouble with 'the boss' for being late in filing it, I'd let myself 'off the hook' by not having to make a commitment on which way I believe this pattern is about to 'jump'?
Winter 2011-12 was never going to be a replay of last year, although many expected and anticipated that it would be, for me I have to say that it has been somewhat of a 'disappointment' in terms of interesting 'activity' or characteristic seasonal conditions so far, that however may be about to alter. Perhaps this winter could be a 'mirror image' of last year, the coldest conditions 'bunched up' in the final 'statistical meteorological month' rather than the first in 2011-12?
The dilemma at the moment is that all the guns are primed for a 'salvo' of intensely cold polar air to come southwards into continental Europe, whether this gets into the UK is the critical factor and is dependent upon a build of pressure which is expected to take place through the next week to ten days, an easterly flow would see this flooding across the British Isles and when compared to recent temperatures a dramatic alteration is fortunes, the determination of the actual wind direction through this period will be crucial to this forecasts viability.
*--- 26/01/12*
The short term sees conditions dominated by a west to northwesterly flow, some rain, some showers and some drier weather for all the UK.
Temperatures although 'reasonable' at first looks set to be declining away, some more general outbreaks of rain and strong winds taking the edge of the benefit of this, as the period closes it looks as if a potentially major change in fortunes could occur. A wet and windy period is indicated for all areas crossing from the west, followed by a blustery and increasingly cool regime and becoming colder later.

*27/01/12 - 05/02/12*
It'll be around this date that high pressure should begin to take control of the overall pattern, the location of its development crucial for the importation of colder air becoming entrenched over central Europe.
Low pressure should be shunted away, taking with any remaining remnants of showery activity plaguing the UK, the whole of the country becoming largely dry, settling into a lengthy spell of quiet, mid-winter anticyclonic conditions. Winds will for the most part be light to variable in nature through the life of this high pressure, a recipe for the associated problems and benefits of mid-winter anticyclonic weather. Mist, fog and frosty conditions widespread overnight, clearing slowly in most areas to bright and or sunny but cold conditions, although in prone spots this will no doubt persist making it cold and dull, hence feeling bitterly cold.
With the aforementioned dilemma in mind, as the high pressure centre drifts and inevitably shifts its position, 'a watch' will have to be maintained for a strengthening or development of any easterly component to the flow, this potentially will threaten much colder air being drawn into the UK from off the continent and perhaps some wintry weather for the south.

*06/02/12 - 09/02/12*
Conditions look set to alter here, a change to rather more unsettled weather being 'flagged up' as the influence of high pressure declines away and low pressure edges into the UK, however it remains on the cold side, therefore this transition may potentially be quite 'messy'?
A potentially wintry component to any precipitation at first will diminish later as generally less cold air moves through all areas from off the Atlantic courtesy of low pressure transiting the UK, outbreaks of rain for all areas followed by brighter showery conditions and a flow from the northwest.

*10/02/15 - 15/02/12*
Rather showery across most areas at first, low pressure edging away to be followed by rise in pressure from the west.
Showers affecting all areas at first, some wintry over northern higher ground will die away, mainly broken cloud with brighter conditions establishing nationwide as a developing anticyclone to the west builds across the UK.
The overnight problems of frost and fog return. The hint that once again, high pressure could become a large and persistent feature.

-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n The word snow,,isnt mentioned once in the above outlook,,"frost and cold " yes,,,but "snow " no.. ??? ??? ??? ??? -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn
Why is cloud 9 so amazing ? What is wrong with cloud 8 ?
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Audi-Tek
Member Avatar
Prince
[ *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  * ]
Somehow..dont think this correct,,, -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n



Posted Image

Posted Image






Attached to this post:
Attachments: viewimage.pbx.png (37.01 KB)
Attachments: viewimage.pbx.png (40.32 KB)
Edited by Audi-Tek, January 21 2012, 09:34 PM.
Why is cloud 9 so amazing ? What is wrong with cloud 8 ?
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Audi-Tek
Member Avatar
Prince
[ *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  * ]
WW FORECAST FOR Monday 23rd January – Sunday 29th January 2012

ISSUED Friday 20th January 2012 1830GMT

SEVERE WEATHER RISKS OVER THE PERIOD- None

Monday 23rd will see a slack WNW’ly flow across the UK with clear periods inland at night giving a slight ground frost locally then sunny periods in the south & east but there may be some mainly light showery rain in the north west and an area of mainly light rain may affect Wales and the SW later after noon as well. A weak ridge and clearing skies later may bring a few mist or fog patches in the south & Midlands as temperature fall to allow a slight frost esp across inland Scotland with a few icy patches possible. Temperatures by day up to a mild 10-11C in the south west but more generally 6-8C and 3-5C in Scotland and NE England but only 0-2C in the Highlands.

Tuesday 24th looks likely to see a generally fresh SW’ly flow develop in the west as front moves east overnight here but as the weak high pressure ridge slides away SE it will be dry and a mainly clear night until dawn in the east with some frost early on. A bright day in the east to start but soon cloudier with mist and some light rain here as well. The rain may be rather persistent and heavy at times on north western upslopes. Fog and low cloud and mainly light rain in most of the west though the day at times in a fresh SW’ly flow but generally becoming patchier further south & east by the mid afternoon. Temperatures reaching a mild 9-11C in the west, more like 7-9C generally in the south and east along with N Ireland and central and northern parts of England but just 5C further north in Scotland and 2C over the Highlands .

Wednesday 25th looks set to see a mild SWly flow continue with low cloud, mist and fog patches to start in many areas but generally dry in the east. To the north and west some rain or drizzle at times with hill and coastal mist and fog persistent across western coasts and SW. Elsewhere inland generally dry but cloudy but a band of rain will move east across most parts during the day with colder weather following into the NW. .The east & SE may see a few bright periods but the NW faring best later with sunny periods and a few showers, these wintry over hills in Scotland & N Ireland. Some icy patches here too before midnight. Winds across exposed western parts may be quite strong at first but abate later. Temperatures will generally be a mild 9-10C in the south and SW but more like 6-9C further north and 2-4C over the Scottish uplands, falling later on.

Thursday 26th looks likely to see the mild breezy SW’ly flow work away east and a low over the Irish Sea will slowly start to sink SE. This will gradually allow somewhat colder weather to sink south and east across much of the UK during the day. After cloud clears away in the east overnight the risk of an early ground frost in some northern parts with icy patches about too. By day some sunny periods in places esp in the east but showers will develop from the west, some heavy and rather wintry too in places, more especially in the north and over high ground above 300m. Some may give a covering in the Highlands. Temperatures up 7-8C in the south but generally more like 5-6C further north and only 1-3C in the Highlands

Friday 27th is likely to see the low sink away towards NE France allowing high pressure to develop across Scotland and a NEly flow across southern & eastern England, fresh on east coasts for a time. An early frost in places in the north & central areas in particular with icy patches about. Staying mainly rather cloudier in the south and SE with some patchy rain at times with some low cloud and mist about esp near east coasts. Bright or sunny periods developing in the west and the north though by day but they‘ll probably be quite limited further east where there may be a few showers. Temperatures up to about 4-7C at best but just 0C over the Highlands.

As we move into the weekend it’s a little less certain but on Saturday 28th it looks like we could see high pressure more dominant across Scandinavia with a ridge SE across Scotland and then SW towards Southern Ireland. Probably a cold start here with a widespread frost but more in the way of an E’ly breeze will keep temperatures somewhat above freezing further SE across most of England. Then a generally dry day in the west to follow overall with some bright or sunny periods but more unsettled in the east with a little light and patchy rain or drizzle at times and hill and coastal mist, fog and low cloud, possibly a little wintry over higher ground. A cold day with temperatures maxing at about 3-4C, though perhaps 6C in the SW and -1C in the Highlands where some hill snow is feasible above about 450m.

Sunday 29th sees the fresh NEly flow persist in the east and SE with a lot of low cloud and some drizzly rain or sleet at times. Any early low cloud & mist or drizzle further west tending to break up a bit and then generally dry and bright with sunny periods to the lee of high ground to the east or north east. In the west though a frost and perhaps a few icy patches about to start and the Highlands may see as low as -7C in the glens. Temperatures by day a cold 2-3C generally, more like 5C in the SW and around -1C across the Scottish uplands.

FEATURES TO MONITOR THIS WEEK

*Quite windy in the exposed parts of the far west and NW midweek onwards with gusts to 55mph on exposed headlands

*Slight frost possible inland from midweek mainly across central & northern parts if so but then more widely by the weekend away from the SE and east coasts of England

*Low to moderate risk of some snow at times in upland northern parts in the Highlands & Northern Scotland on mountains above about 450m around midweek and then over the high ground of the NE and east by the weekend.

*A few icy patches inland at night where rain has fallen by day at times during the week and into the weekend

FORECAST CONFIDENCE is moderate-high for the patterning & moderate for detail until about Thursday but moderate for patterning and detail by Friday onwards


http://www.wiseweather.co.uk/id2.html
Why is cloud 9 so amazing ? What is wrong with cloud 8 ?
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Audi-Tek
Member Avatar
Prince
[ *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  * ]
Week ahead - January 22, 2012
Mixed week ahead
Drier weekend

Issued: 0900hrs Monday 23rd January 2012
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling

An unsettled few days ahead with low pressure north of the country and fronts spreading east. This brings milder conditions for the first half of the week. However, by late in the week temperatures will fall as the winds turn to the northwest.



Wednesday 25/1/12
A broad warm sector covers the country on Wednesday, with a warm front to the east and a cold front to the west. There will be lots of cloud around with some outbreaks of light rain and drizzle. Turning brighter in more central and eastern areas through the morning, but as the cold front moves into the west there will be some heavy periods of rain and strong winds developing for western Scotland, western England, Wales and Ireland. Highs at 6 to 11C.

Thursday 26/1/12
Low pressure is north of the country on Thursday with cold front passing east in the morning taking some rain and sleet with it. Following will be colder conditions with some showers on the coasts. There will be some bright or sunny spells too. Breezy in the south and highs at 4 to 7C.

Friday 27/1/12
A ridge of high pressure brings a frosty start to the day on Friday. There will be some good spells of sunshine around, these lasting well into the afternoon. Cloud may increase in Ireland and western Scotland later as a warm front approaches, but it should stay dry. Highs at 5 to 8C.

Saturday 28/1/12
High pressure is expected through the south of the country on Saturday. It will be chilly and frosty here in the morning once again, but this then clearing to leave hazy sunshine. Cloudier skies to the north with fronts edging east bringing some rain on northern and western coasts. Highs at 6 to 8C here.

Sunday 29/1/12
High pressure is expected to dominate again through Sunday, and is likely to be focused over the south of the country. This brings a morning frost, but then a fair day with good spells of sunshine. More cloud always affecting the north and west. Highs at 5 to 8C.

Monday 30/1/12
Lower confidence in the forecast for Monday, although it does look set to become colder. There will be sunny spells, but a widespread frost. Most places should be dry. Highs at 2 to 7C.


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=203&DAY=20120122

-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn -c-h-i-n ??? ??? -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn
Why is cloud 9 so amazing ? What is wrong with cloud 8 ?
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Audi-Tek
Member Avatar
Prince
[ *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  * ]
Weather forecast: UK
Headline:

Early rain clearing, with sunny spells developing for most.
Today:

Early rain and hill snow in the north largely clearing eastwards through the morning. Good spells of sunshine then developing for most of the UK, although occasionally wintry showers forming in some northern and western parts. Winds easing slowly.
Tonight:

A largely dry, clear and cold night. However a few showers continuing across the northwest and also becoming cloudy in the southwest with some light rain. Winds continuing to ease.
Monday:

Mostly dry with good sunny spells. However southwestern parts of the UK will be rather cloudy at times with some light rain, and further showers likely in the northwest.

Updated: 0305 on Sun 22 Jan 2012
Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Turning cloudy and windy with outbreaks of rain on Tuesday. Wednesday mild and windy with further rain, especially in the northwest. Thursday then colder and brighter with showers, some wintry.

Updated: 0305 on Sun 22 Jan 2012
UK Outlook for Friday 27 Jan 2012 to Sunday 5 Feb 2012:

Staying unsettled across the country at first with further scattered showers. The heaviest and most frequent showers are likely in the north and west at first but these tending to transfer south and east during the weekend. The showers are likely to be also wintry in the north with further hill snow, with conditions also occasionally windy, especially to the north and west. Towards the beginning of next week though, some change to more settled but colder conditions is then likely to develop with nighttimes often frosty. From midweek onwards though there is considerable uncertainty in the forecast, with an almost equal probability of a more changeable weather type returning, or much colder conditions developing across the UK, with snow in places and widespread frost.

Updated: 1113 on Sun 22 Jan 2012
UK Outlook for Monday 6 Feb 2012 to Monday 20 Feb 2012:

The forecast for early February remains very uncertain. There appear to be two main scenarios, each equally probable, but which are very different. The first scenario consists of a changeable westerly or southwesterly weather type with rain at times (amounts greatest in the west), and with temperatures noticeably above average for early February, with only occasional frosts. The alternative scenario is that much colder weather with winds mainly from an easterly or northeasterly quarter, will prevail well into February, bringing widespread frosts and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that was most vulnerable to snowfall.

Updated: 1136 on Sun 22 Jan 2012

The met have two possible scenarios, still cant nail it down it seems... -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_alltext.html
Why is cloud 9 so amazing ? What is wrong with cloud 8 ?
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Audi-Tek
Member Avatar
Prince
[ *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  * ]
Consistency in forecasting cold weather 22/1/2012
From: Weather School Channel Jan 22, 2012


Video Link .................. http://youtu.be/oEup9llw2qw




-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n Waiting for cold to arrive,is like waiting for a bus to arrive,Hope when it does arrive,it was worth the wait. -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn
Why is cloud 9 so amazing ? What is wrong with cloud 8 ?
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Audi-Tek
Member Avatar
Prince
[ *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  * ]
Posted Image
Why is cloud 9 so amazing ? What is wrong with cloud 8 ?
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Mark (IWO)
Member Avatar
Admin

Looking quite chilly midweek before conditions turn milder for the weekend. Another fall off in temps next week. We remain in a 50-50 settp for the turn of the month i.e. 50% chance of cold/cool zonal setup or east/NE setup bringing much colder but largely drier weather (wintry showers in north and east)

Latest GFS 850hpa temps (approx 1500m asl) for Dublin

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) index confirms the continuing warming over the stratosphere, resulting in cold arctic airmass spilling south throughout the Northern Hemisphere. This looks like happening over Greenland, Canada into northern US and eastern Europe down to the Balkans.

The final attachment shows the North Atlantic Oscillation, which we need to see turn negative for the zonal, jetstream influenced weather being diverted away from Uk/Ireland. At present it is trending neutral hence the 50/50 nature of the setup for Ireland over the next 10-14 days.

Attached to this post:
Attachments: t850Dublin.png (28.45 KB)
Attachments: ao.mrf.gif (61.11 KB)
Attachments: nao.sprd2.gif (72.1 KB)
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Mark (IWO)
Member Avatar
Admin

Latest from Simon Keeling, weatheronline.co.uk
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Mark (IWO)
Member Avatar
Admin

Turning much colder wed eve into friday when winds swing from SW to NW.
Posted Image
Posted Image

Sleet/wet snow showers likely through Wed night and Thursday, mostly above 250m and mostly in the west and north. A mix of hail, sleet and graupel showers elsewhere.
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Audi-Tek
Member Avatar
Prince
[ *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  * ]
UK Forecast

Week ahead - January 23, 2012
Cold end of week
Better weekend

Issued: 0900hrs Monday 23rd January 2012
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling

Turning much colder through Thursday and Friday of this week, with a chance of some snow in places, mainly in the north and west. Temperatures recover slightly through the weekend, but the outlook is for colder air to return to England and Wales next week. Western Scotland and Ireland probably milder.



Thursday 26/1/12
A cold front affecting the far southeast of England on Thursday morning bringing rain here. Low pressure is north of Scotland and will be bringing a mix of sunshine and showers through the day. The showers could be heavy and wintry in the west, with a band of showers merging into longer spells of rain and passing east during the morning and early afternoon. A colder day for all with highs of 3 to 7C.

Friday 27/1/12
Low pressure stays to the north of Scotland through Friday. Wintry showers are likely to be affecting Scotland, and there is a chance of these affecting parts of East Anglia too. Further showers for western coasts and hills, but more southern areas seeing less of these. Highs at 4 to 7C.

Saturday 28/1/12
A weak ridge of high pressure builds to the south on Saturday as a warm front passes through northern areas of the country. It is likely to be rather cloudy across the north and west with some spots of rain at times. More southern areas should be drier and brighter with some sunny spells here. Highs at 4 to 10C.

Sunday 29/1/12
High pressure is likely to be dominating the weather through Sunday. It brings a frosty start to the morning for many with some mist and fog patches too. A low chance of an odd sleety flurry affecting southeast England and East Anglia. Some cloud and brisker winds too in western Scotland and western Ireland where there is a risk of some rain. Elsewhere the day should become dry with sunny spells. Highs at 3 to 8C.

Monday 30/1/12
A slack pressure flow over the country on Monday. There is the chance of some snow flurries affecting the southeast. There will be a fair amount of cloud, and it is likely to be feeling chilly over most of the country. Milder in western Scotland and western Ireland where cloud will bring some spots of rain. Highs at 3 to 7C.

Tuesday 31/1/12
The slack pressure flow is maintained into Tuesday. Current thinking is that much of England and Wales are cloudy, cold and mostly dry, although a few spots of drizzle cannot be ruled out. Western Wales, Scotland and Ireland are likely to be cloudier with some outbreaks of rain at times. Highs at 3 to 7C.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=203&FILE=awa&DAY=20120123
Why is cloud 9 so amazing ? What is wrong with cloud 8 ?
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Audi-Tek
Member Avatar
Prince
[ *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  * ]
Latest news and views from Brian Gaze, TWO's founder.


Cold weather prospects update
Posted Mon, 23 Jan 2012 06:57:22

There’s been a lot of uncertainty about the medium term outlook for the last few days. This continues to be the case this morning, and there is still a chance of the bitterly cold air to the east backing west all the way across Europe to reach the UK. However, my interpretation of the computer model output available to me is that the chance of this happening is reducing, and is perhaps no higher than 25%. What looks a more likely outcome is that temperatures in the east of Britain in particular will drop at times as colder low level air is advected off the continent, and this could give some frosty nights. This could potentially still be cold enough for some sleet or snow in eastern parts as weather fronts push in against the block, but there’s no definite signs of that at the moment.

Posted Image

??? ??? ??? ??? :( :( :( :( -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn :( :( :(
Why is cloud 9 so amazing ? What is wrong with cloud 8 ?
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Mark (IWO)
Member Avatar
Admin

Audi-Tek
January 23 2012, 03:19 PM
Latest news and views from Brian Gaze, TWO's founder.
As quoted in Life of Brian, he's making it up as he goes along.

Brian Gaze's long term forecasts are about his reliable as the GEFS post 120hrs - subject to change and dramatic change at the best of times.
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Mark (IWO)
Member Avatar
Admin

As you were in the 12 GFS regarding wintry potential for late wed into Thursday.

High ground in north and west most at risk of seeing wintry showers, mostly of hail, sleet and wet snow.

-r-a-i-n
Attached to this post:
Attachments: airpressure.png (102.17 KB)
Attachments: uksnowrisk.png (46.41 KB)
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Audi-Tek
Member Avatar
Prince
[ *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  * ]
Mark (IWO)
January 23 2012, 03:21 PM
Audi-Tek
January 23 2012, 03:19 PM
Latest news and views from Brian Gaze, TWO's founder.
As quoted in Life of Brian, he's making it up as he goes along.

Brian Gaze's long term forecasts are about his reliable as the GEFS post 120hrs - subject to change and dramatic change at the best of times.
Yep Mark, I agree 100% with what you say.I posted the following under one of his forecast,I posted here a few days ago.

Quote "-c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n Brian Gaze, seems to change his tune a lot,Tomorrow could be saying mild,,just as quick as he says cold today. -c-h-i-n -c-h-i-n p-o-pc-o-rn p-o-pc-o-rn "

Will be interesting, come Spring,to read back over the many Winter forecasts that were,posted pre- Winter,and see just how much chopping and changing, were made to them over the months.We should be able to separate the cowboys, from the more expert forecasters.
Why is cloud 9 so amazing ? What is wrong with cloud 8 ?
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Mark (IWO)
Member Avatar
Admin

Upgrade in GEFS regarding cold over Europe remaining closer to the UK

Here are the 850hpa comparisons for next Monday from the 6z (image 2) and 12z (image 1) runs.

Latest GEFS has the Scandi high building with the azores high building but doing so further south and west. Baby steps but important steps.

Attached to this post:
Attachments: 1.png (67.38 KB)
Attachments: 2.png (67.16 KB)
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Mark (IWO)
Member Avatar
Admin

Audi-Tek
January 23 2012, 06:26 PM
We should be able to separate the cowboys, from the more expert forecasters.
Well, we will be concluding that the Seasonal forecasting game is more like an episode of Bonanza or Rawhide
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Mark (IWO)
Member Avatar
Admin

LATEST FROM UKMO. Their latest updates really underpins the uncertainty surrounding the weather over the next fortnight

UK Outlook for Saturday 28 Jan 2012 to Monday 6 Feb 2012:

Southern and eastern parts of the UK are likely to become largely dry through the weekend with clear and sunny spells developing. Nighttimes though will see the risk of frost and fog return with some of the fog slow to clear in places. Northern and western parts though are likely to see more in the way of cloud, wind and rain at times, but temperatures here will remain around average. The unsettled conditions in the north are likely to become restricted to the far northwest by midweek as high pressure is expected to build. However from midweek, uncertainty remains in the forecast, with an almost equal probability of the unsettled conditions spreading back across the UK, or much colder conditions developing nationwide, with snow in places and widespread frosts.

Updated: 1114 on Mon 23 Jan 2012

UK Outlook for Tuesday 7 Feb 2012 to Tuesday 21 Feb 2012:

The forecast for early February remains very uncertain. There appear to be two main scenarios, each equally probable, but which are very different. The first scenario consists of a changeable westerly or southwesterly weather type with rain at times (amounts greatest in the west), and with temperatures noticeably above average for early February, with only occasional frosts. The alternative scenario is that much colder weather with winds mainly from an easterly or northeasterly quarter, will prevail well into February, bringing widespread frosts and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that was most vulnerable to snowfall.

Updated: 1135 on Mon 23 Jan 2012
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Fergal (IWO)
Member Avatar
Admin

Thursday's looking interesting for cold lovers. Just getting into the range of the Hirlam now and it is showing a much colder outlook than the others, with 850 hPa theta-e and theta-w below +10 °C and +1 °C, respectively. It seems to overdo this parameter when compared to other models, which in the case of the GFS is showing +15 °C and +2-3 °C, respectively. The difference between the two would be snow to near sea level with the hirlam but only above around 200 metres for the GFS. Will be interesting to see the NAE's take on it tomorrow.
http://weatheire.yolasite.com
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Fergal (IWO)
Member Avatar
Admin

The Spanish Hirlam has recently been introduced on the weatheronline.co.uk site but I think there are still some major teething problems with its cold parameters, eg. 850 theta values and thicknesses. I would use it with caution until it irons itself out. It's a pity because this site gives the widest range of parameters of them all, and to have such a tool would be a real boost when trying to split hairs on will it or won't it snow.

Hirlam 850 hPa theta-e, which is around 5 degrees lower than the GFS and others.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=aemet&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pstp&HH=6&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Compare it to the GFS, for example

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=pstp&HH=6&BASE=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0
http://weatheire.yolasite.com
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Bella East Cork
Member Avatar
Queen
[ *  * ]
Fergal (IWO)
January 23 2012, 11:15 PM
Will be interesting to see the NAE's take on it tomorrow.


d-a-nce d-a-nce cant wait !!!


even though im still clueless as to reading charts i just want to say welcome back IWO missed you guys and bring on the snow alerts !!! fingers crossed !!
Weather forecast for tonight: dark
The trouble with forcasting is that it's right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Audi-Tek
Member Avatar
Prince
[ *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  * ]
Rain & Snowfall Chart


http://www.myweather2.com/activity/play-weather-maps.aspx?mapid=2&id=185457&maptype=RAIN_AND_SNOW



Dont know, just how accurate this is, or if it gives false information.I am sure Mark or Fergal will know, more just how accurate it is or not.

Better hide -scar-ed[ ,in case its all crap . :) :) :)
Why is cloud 9 so amazing ? What is wrong with cloud 8 ?
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Audi-Tek
Member Avatar
Prince
[ *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  * ]
Weather Services International: New Pattern of More Seasonable European Winter Temperatures Likely.


North Atlantic “Blocking” Will End the Very Mild, Early Winter and May Usher in Much Cooler Weather

Andover, MA (PRWEB) January 23, 2012
WSI (Weather Services International) expects temperatures for the upcoming period (February-April) to average lower than normal across the UK, along with parts of western Europe and Norway, with above-normal temperatures common elsewhere, most notably, across southeastern Europe.

“The first half of winter has clearly been much milder than the last couple of winters, as a very strong polar vortex has controlled the pattern, so far, and shielded Europe from any sustained cold. Recently, the vortex has weakened, allowing for atmospheric blocking to develop, first in the North Pacific and, eventually, in the North Atlantic. This North Atlantic blocking, otherwise known as the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), will allow a return to, at least, seasonably cold weather across much of Europe in February,” said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. “While North Atlantic blocking may develop in early February, current indications suggest that the rest of the northern hemispheric pattern will not enable bitter Arctic air flow into Europe, at least initially. Because of this, we are only expecting slightly below-normal temperatures in parts of western Europe in February. Beyond that, we generally expect the negative NAO to be in control during the spring, with below-normal temperatures expected across the Nordic Region and parts of northern mainland Europe.”

Posted Image

In February, WSI forecasts:


Nordic Region* – Warmer than normal Sweden/Finland, cool Norway


UK* – Cooler than normal


Northern Mainland* – Warmer than normal, except Benelux


Southern Mainland* – Warmer than normal, except France/Iberia

In March, WSI forecasts:


Nordic Region – Warmer than normal


UK – Warmer than normal


Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal


Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except Iberia

In April, WSI forecasts:


Nordic Region – Cooler than normal


UK – Cooler than normal


Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except France/Benelux


Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except Iberia

WSI, providing customized weather information to energy traders, will issue its next seasonal outlook on 20 February.


About Weather Services International


Weather Services International is the world's leading provider of weather-driven business solutions for professionals in the energy, aviation and media markets, as well as multiple federal and state government agencies. WSI is a member of The Weather Channel Companies and is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts with offices in Birmingham, England. The Weather Channel Companies are owned by a consortium made up of NBC Universal and the private equity firms The Blackstone Group and Bain Capital. More information about WSI can be found at http://www.wsi.com.
Edited by Audi-Tek, January 24 2012, 03:07 AM.
Why is cloud 9 so amazing ? What is wrong with cloud 8 ?
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Mark (IWO)
Member Avatar
Admin

Mr. Vogan
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Mark (IWO)
Member Avatar
Admin

Some very positive signs in the 00z GEFS model regarding the potential for much colder weather in about 7-8 days. Ultimately, the cooler continental airmass is just about reaching the east coast of England and is not managing to progress much further west. Still, an upgrade on runs during Monday and Sunday when charts post 144hrs were not showing much in the way of cold extending past eastern Europe and Finland.

Tuesday, January 31
Posted Image
Posted Image

Friday, February 03
Posted Image
Posted Image

For what it's worth Joe Bastardi on Twitter said that Ireland and UK could see a repeat of Dec 2010 in February. s-ho-cked-

May be a little over the top h-m-m-m-
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
mickger844posts
Member Avatar
Calm
[ * ]
Mark (IWO)
January 24 2012, 07:50 AM
Some very positive signs in the 00z GEFS model regarding the potential for much colder weather in about 7-8 days. Ultimately, the cooler continental airmass is just about reaching the east coast of England and is not managing to progress much further west. Still, an upgrade on runs during Monday and Sunday when charts post 144hrs were not showing much in the way of cold extending past eastern Europe and Finland.

Tuesday, January 31
Posted Image
Posted Image

Friday, February 03
Posted Image
Posted Image

For what it's worth Joe Bastardi on Twitter said that Ireland and UK could see a repeat of Dec 2010 in February. s-ho-cked-

May be a little over the top h-m-m-m-
Joe loves to ramp but maybe he could be right. As you said some positive signs in the GFS 0Z run. Will be interesting to see if a trend develops and if the other models jump on board.
Latest weather for Waterford @ Waterford City Weather
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
Mark (IWO)
Member Avatar
Admin

Incredible run from the ECM 0Z. It has us in the freezer by 3 Feb
Posted Image

That Azores High is still in place though so I am sceptical about this coming off as is depicted
Posted Image

Interesting to say the least though with a slack cool/cold SE to E airflow becoming established around 31st Jan (today week).

Very well may be some exciting times ahead if you are cold lover.
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
Offline Profile Quote Post Goto Top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Irish Weather Forecast & Discussion · Next Topic »
Add Reply

tm