| Cold prospects Late Jan/Early Feb | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: January 20 2012, 04:22 PM (1,805 Views) | |
| Mark (IWO) | January 24 2012, 10:36 AM Post #41 |
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Arctic Oscillation (AO) Index (first pic) drops to negative values not seen since mid-2011. The stratospheric warming over the Arctic looks set to continue with the result being cold air flooding south over the Northern Hemisphere. At present, it looks like cold will build over Russia and extend into eastern Europe and Scandinavia by 1 Feb. The second pic shows the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which is showing a neutral if not slightly above neutral outlook. Normally a positive NAO means that the jetstream will influence our weather as we have seen for much of the winter to date. This NAO index outlook favours a cool zonal setup similar to what we saw during the first few weeks of December. Taking into account my previous post, there are clear indications that very cold weather will be on our doorsteps by the turn of the month. Whether blocking highs can form to our w and nw cutting off that stream of wind driven muck from the sw is another matter with only tentative support at present |
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| Audi-Tek | January 24 2012, 01:31 PM Post #42 |
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Detailed 10-14 day outlook 24/1/2012 From: Simon Keeling from Weather School Channel Jan 24, 2012. Video Link ....................... http://youtu.be/O7oACIYAJTM Squeaky Bum Time ....
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| Audi-Tek | January 24 2012, 01:39 PM Post #43 |
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Morning Call - January 24, 2012 Wet and becoming milder Windier tomorrow Issued: 0530hrs Tuesday 24th January 2012 Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling Wetter and more mild through today Good morning, A change in conditions for today as fronts sweep eastwards through the country. These are bringing with them significant periods of rain. Just about anywhere could see rain, although I think that into this afternoon it should become lighter and more patchy. Increasingly breezy too. For most it stays cloudy and damp this evening. It will always be the north and west that is most likely to be seeing outbreaks of rain and drizzle at times, and it is here where fog could shroud hills and coasts. probably drier inland. Get set for some windy weather tomorrow with heavy rain reaching western Scotland, Ireland and the west of Wakes and England in the afternoon. The rain could turn to snow across Ireland. Have a great day. Simon simon.keeling@weatheronline.co.uk
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| Mark (IWO) | January 24 2012, 03:06 PM Post #44 |
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The 06z GFS is a slight upgrade on its predecessor with cold over the continent continuing to build and edge further west. The 850hpa chart (temps at around 1500m above sea level) for Monday highlights this fact. The 850 is the first attachment However, further ridging toward eastern canada and greenland is required if the present jetstream driven zonal setup is to be tamed. At present, there is a slow progression towards such an eventuality (second attachment) The UKMO, meanwhile, supports the ECM in terms of cold building west from the continent. ![]() |
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| Audi-Tek | January 24 2012, 05:44 PM Post #45 |
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Dont think I should have posted this here,as its more about Feb,rather than Jan.Please move to correct thread,if so . This is from the official blog of the Met Office news team, intended to provide journalists and bloggers with the latest weather, climate science and business news and information from the Met Office. Two stories for the start of February 19 01 2012 Anyone looking at our current 16-30 day UK forecast (for the first half of February) will have noticed that uncertainty is the theme – much more so than usual, even when looking this far ahead. The outlook for this period is finely balanced, with two scenarios looking equally possible: the first being a continuation of the changeable and relatively mild conditions we’ve seen so far this winter; the second being a shift to a period of much colder weather. Whilst two different outcomes are possible, it does look as though the general pattern that establishes itself by the start of February could last for quite a while, perhaps even until the middle of the month. However, it is not possible to say which of the two scenarios is more likely due to an unusual amount of uncertainty in the forecast. For these longer range outlooks, we use sophisticated techniques to understand the uncertainties – called ensemble forecasts. In an ensemble forecast we run a forecast model many times from very slightly different starting conditions. The range of different outcomes gives us a measure of how confident or uncertain we should be in the overall forecast. Currently the ensembles for the start of February onwards show a fairly even split that does not clearly favour either the mild or the cold option – and there are relatively few solutions in between. There is a possible explanation for this relatively rare situation. In recent days there has been an increase in temperatures in the high atmosphere (the stratosphere) over the northern hemisphere. This change seems to have been driven in part by marked changes in the weather patterns lower down in the atmosphere – over the north Pacific for example. Research, developed in part by the Met Office, suggests that changes such as this high up in our atmosphere can – in time – go on to affect weather patterns at surface-level. However, this is a new and very complex area of meteorology where we are still developing our understanding of all the mechanisms involved. It is possible this is why we are seeing the volatility in the current forecast, as different model runs handle the interactions differently. Rest assured, whatever happens we’ll keep you up to date with the latest information through our forecasts and weather warnings – so as soon as we know, you’ll know. http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/01/19/two-stories-for-the-start-of-february/ |
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| Mark (IWO) | January 24 2012, 05:47 PM Post #46 |
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That's a very long winded way of saying![]() I am joking. The UKMO are right. It's a really hard call even 5 days after they wrote that press release. I notice their ]website continues to hint at two possible scenarios for the weekend and next week, let alone early Feb. |
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| Mark (IWO) | January 24 2012, 06:30 PM Post #47 |
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12Z GEFS has low pressure approaching Ireland from the sw. In the last run the low pressure swung to our nw so quite a big difference in two runs. The azores high also has shifted hundreds of miles west toward canada which is also a positive development as it is more conducive to stemming the zonal jetstream pattern over us. What is consistent is the cold building west bringing snow to eastern England by this sunday into Monday. At the moment, we are looking at a battleground situation next weekend. The 12z ECM model output will tell a lot. The Russian High is continuing to build as the below attachment shows. Without trying to tempt fate, I must admit the present GEFS, UKMO, ECM output are the most exciting that we have seen this winter in terms of cold potential. I also have a feeling that the situation will continue to evolve up to Friday, after which thing swill be much clearer. Either way, we are now seeing maps within the 144hr time frame offering significant potential with upgrades in the past 24 hrs. It has tended to be downgrades in recent week, while nothing as positive as what we see now has shown up within the 120-144hrs time frame so far this winter...until now. Still, it can all go horribly wrong so keep tuned. |
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| Wicklow Weather | January 24 2012, 06:55 PM Post #48 |
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I am not a convinced man when it comes to the models! I will wait another 26 to 48hrs before I rub my hands together. What a bunch of inconsistent models we have had over the past 14 days+ will it wont it. On Friday I was sure late Jan into early Feb was a certainty but will give the models a few more runs.... |
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| Mark (IWO) | January 24 2012, 09:17 PM Post #49 |
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12z ECM has colder weather reaching our eastern shores by Monday, the timeframe I have mentioned in the last few posts.![]() The ECM tried to build colder weather further west and succeeds. ![]() A less aggressive run from the ECM compared to the 0z run but the trend is no different. Whatever about the threat of snow showers to the east, severe overnight frosts are likely under this setup. |
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| mickger844posts | January 25 2012, 06:59 AM Post #50 |
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GFS 0z run is fantastic. Bit far out in FI to get too excited but the trend is looking good. Edited by mickger844posts, January 25 2012, 07:00 AM.
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| Fergal (IWO) | January 25 2012, 01:09 PM Post #51 |
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The German Weather Service (DWD) give a daily discussion of their thoughts on the latest model performance here (in German). Here's the page translated. (click Synoptic Overviews and Medium-Term) |
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| Mark (IWO) | January 25 2012, 02:03 PM Post #52 |
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The 06z GEFS keeps us in a cold zonal setup right throughout next week with any cold from the continent not pushing much beyond eastern England. One thing worth noting is that the a battleground situation is presenting itself i.e. cold air from the east pushing up against Atlantic frontal systems. Such scenarios have produced significant snowfall events over Ireland in the past. There is no way of knowing if such a situation may materialise until much closer to the time. ![]() Either way, we remain in a similar situation to where we yesterday in relation to the medium range weather prospects. There remains a 50% chance of very cold weather occurring early next week with a 50% chance of us remaining in a cold zonal setup which will kick in later this evening. Note updates from Met Eireann and UKMO here in the discussion section. Both suggesting colder weather on the way. |
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| Mark (IWO) | January 25 2012, 02:37 PM Post #53 |
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An update on what the UKMO is saying saying. See this forum's model analysis section for further info from IWO. UK MET OFFICE UK Outlook for Monday 30 Jan 2012 to Wednesday 8 Feb 2012: At the beginning of the week, although there is a lot of uncertainty, eastern and central areas will most likely see clear/sunny spells, and scattered showers, these mostly light but locally wintry. Westernmost areas will probably see more cloud, with occasional rain. Temperatures will probably be below average, the cold accentuated further by fresh winds from an eastern quadrant. Towards the end of the week and through the rest of the period, a general continuation of the cold weather type seems most likely, but it is by no means certain. There is a risk of snow, ice and sharp frosts, with easternmost parts being most prone. However we certainly cannot discount the possibility that mild west/southwesterly winds will return instead, bringing rain at times. Updated: 1225 on Wed 25 Jan 2012 UK Outlook for Thursday 9 Feb 2012 to Thursday 23 Feb 2012: The forecast for mid-February remains very uncertain.However, the most likely outcome is for much colder weather with winds mainly from an easterly quadrant to prevail, bringing widespread frosts, and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that would be most vulnerable to snowfall. There remains an alternative scenario, in which milder westerly winds prevail, the chances of this alternative scenario are currently rated as about one in three. Updated: 1225 on Wed 25 Jan 2012 MET EIREANN Tuesday and Wednesday next will be dry with good sunny spells. Current indications suggest that next week will be very cold with temperatures of just 3 to 6 degrees by day and with sharp or severe frosts at night. |
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| ConorLK | January 25 2012, 03:15 PM Post #54 |
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GFS loves its Atlantic lows so I wouldn't pay too much attention to it unless the ECMWF and UKMO follow suit later. I'm still not really expecting the easterly to make it as far as us but it's an interesting one to watch |
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| Mark (IWO) | January 25 2012, 05:00 PM Post #55 |
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AO Index looks like dropping to negative values not seen since December 2010. Of course other factors contributed to that severe period of weather so this AO update does not spell out the same outcome. However, it is the key factor in distributing cold from the Arctic throughout the Northern Hemisphere. The NAO, however, is not interested in seeing a blocking pattern being set up in the North Atlantic. A negative or in the least a neutral NAO is important, though not essential, if Ireland and UK are to see any airmass extend from the NE/E. The strongly negative AO may just overrride matters Edited by Mark (IWO), January 25 2012, 05:03 PM.
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| Audi-Tek | January 25 2012, 08:00 PM Post #56 |
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Wednesday's 10-14 day outlook 25/1/12 From: Weather School School | Jan 25, 2012 Video Link ............... http://youtu.be/rz__s5IUuUs So I think I will join the gal on the fence, and wait and see, what may happen after the weekend .
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| Mark (IWO) | January 25 2012, 10:15 PM Post #57 |
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Cold weather winning the war of probabilities - UK Met Office Late last week we put out a blog article about an unusual amount of uncertainty in the longer range forecast (for the start of February onwards) for the UK. This is because the atmosphere is currently in a finely balanced state and, depending on which way it goes, this could lead to a continuation of milder weather or a switch to much colder conditions – with frosts, ice and snow possible. It comes down to whether we’ll continue to see the current pattern of westerly winds bringing in milder conditions from the Atlantic, or whether a high pressure system developing over Russia will extend towards the UK to bring in cold air on easterly winds. The Met Office and forecast centres around the world have been studying this situation closely but the 50/50 split on which outcome is the most likely has persisted – until now. It now looks as if the scenario for colder conditions is slightly more likely, but our forecasters stress that a lot of uncertainty remains and milder weather could return. Looking at our current forecast for the end of next week, our guidance states: “…a general continuation of the cold weather type seems most likely, but it is by no means certain. There is a risk of snow, ice and sharp frosts, with easternmost parts being most prone. However we certainly cannot discount the possibility that mild west/southwesterly winds will return instead, bringing rain at times.” Looking further ahead, the forecast for mid-February onwards remains very uncertain too. Looking at our current guidance, it states: “…the most likely outcome is for much colder weather with winds mainly from an easterly quadrant to prevail, bringing widespread frosts, and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that would be most vulnerable to snowfall. There remains an alternative scenario, in which milder westerly winds prevail, the chances of this alternative scenario are currently rated as about one in three.” Our forecasters will continue to closely monitor the situation, so for the latest information check our weather forecasts and warnings about what to expect. |
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| Mark (IWO) | January 25 2012, 10:29 PM Post #58 |
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ECM has in a cool zonal setup right up to midweek next week with temps around average during the day and dropping close to freezing at night. A downgrade on previous runs in terms of serving up potential for blocking in the next week, and more in line with the GEFS. The prospects toward the end of the run (4-5 Feb) are much better. |
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| Paul | January 25 2012, 10:32 PM Post #59 |
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Latest charts not looking good for any decent cold, lads on Boards reckon it could be all over for the winter. |
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| Mark (IWO) | January 25 2012, 10:44 PM Post #60 |
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Tends to be the comment when a run downgrades. Winter is not over until mid March. Latest from Met Eireann and UKMO both indicate cold weather. MET EIREANN "Current indications suggest that next week will be very cold with temperatures of just 3 to 6 degrees by day and with sharp or severe frosts at night" UK Met Office press release issued this evening Cold weather winning the war of probabilities Late last week we put out a blog article about an unusual amount of uncertainty in the longer range forecast (for the start of February onwards) for the UK. This is because the atmosphere is currently in a finely balanced state and, depending on which way it goes, this could lead to a continuation of milder weather or a switch to much colder conditions – with frosts, ice and snow possible. It comes down to whether we’ll continue to see the current pattern of westerly winds bringing in milder conditions from the Atlantic, or whether a high pressure system developing over Russia will extend towards the UK to bring in cold air on easterly winds. The Met Office and forecast centres around the world have been studying this situation closely but the 50/50 split on which outcome is the most likely has persisted – until now. It now looks as if the scenario for colder conditions is slightly more likely, but our forecasters stress that a lot of uncertainty remains and milder weather could return. Looking at our current forecast for the end of next week, our guidance states: “…a general continuation of the cold weather type seems most likely, but it is by no means certain. There is a risk of snow, ice and sharp frosts, with easternmost parts being most prone. However we certainly cannot discount the possibility that mild west/southwesterly winds will return instead, bringing rain at times.” Looking further ahead, the forecast for mid-February onwards remains very uncertain too. Looking at our current guidance, it states: “…the most likely outcome is for much colder weather with winds mainly from an easterly quadrant to prevail, bringing widespread frosts, and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that would be most vulnerable to snowfall. There remains an alternative scenario, in which milder westerly winds prevail, the chances of this alternative scenario are currently rated as about one in three.” Our forecasters will continue to closely monitor the situation, so for the latest information check our weather forecasts and warnings about what to expect. |
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| Paul | January 25 2012, 10:48 PM Post #61 |
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Yea but England could well see proper cold and snow while Ireland is mild |
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| Mark (IWO) | January 25 2012, 10:55 PM Post #62 |
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Could well be the case, Paul. At present, however, such a scenario is not being shown. At the moment the models agree on cold building from the east but failing to extend beyond the east coast of england in the short term. At the same time, everything west of this remains more or less in a cold zonal setup with the Atlantic very much remaining in charge. It's beyond this 96-120hr period that remains of interest. We need the cold to keep building over the continent and further ridging to take place off eastern canada into greenland to divert the jetstream from its current path. Models are trending toward this but are having trouble with the current setup due to the spillage of cold air south from Arctic. The NAO is tipped to remain positive which would indicate that the Atlantic is not going to give up without a fight so I would say we remain 50/50 in terms of a cold and milder outcome. I am happy to go with the UKMO on this as they refrain from ever mentioning cold prospects 5-days, let alone 3 weeks. They must be pretty confident |
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| Mark (IWO) | January 26 2012, 12:48 AM Post #63 |
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significant upgrade from the gfs for next week with ridging taking place to our west and a further strengthening of the Russian high. 850 uppers of 10-15 over UK by 3-4 Feb pushing west. well spotted ukmo and met eireann. winter may be about to.pay us a visit next week |
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| Audi-Tek | January 26 2012, 01:47 AM Post #64 |
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Nice,in fact very nice,,but will it hold true,,,?????????????? I give it
Edited by Audi-Tek, January 26 2012, 01:48 AM.
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| Fergal (IWO) | January 26 2012, 01:47 AM Post #65 |
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For me, I am sliding against a proper easterly taking place, going on the ECMWF, UKMO and GFS northern hemispherical setups. The ECMWF and UKMO are fairly similar within their respective timeframes, showing fairly zonal conditions over North America slightly amplifying over the next few days, forming a low near Iceland that pumps high geopotential northwards towards the Norwegian Sea. This acts to sustain the Scandinavian high for a brief period, but the supply shuts off fairly quickly and a more zonal setup takes its place, dismantling the Scandi high somewhat. The GFS is similar to a point but then does what it has a tendency to do - overdoes the amplification over North America, which holds the low pressure further west and allows the warm supply to continue for longer and building the High further west. This both holds its strength and also brings the cold over us. I don't think this will happen as the GFS is known for overdoing cold outbreaks. As I said elsewhere, I think we will see some brief cold but will see a return to westerlies again afterwards. |
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| ConorLK | January 26 2012, 04:56 AM Post #66 |
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Not quite as technical but even taking the models at face value there's been little to be excited about really, at best a slack easterly flow for a couple of days. General consensus elsewhere seems to be that the models are totally unreliable within a few days but realistically there's reasonable certainty to 120h which leaves us in a weak easterly before a return to Atlantic influenced weather. More potential later on as the high to the east doesn't go anywhere but as always we're looking in the unreliable timeframe for some proper interesting weather which is quite pointless |
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| Mark (IWO) | January 26 2012, 11:11 AM Post #67 |
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Yep, Conor. In the much less reliable 120hr-192 hour timeframe, models are trending toward high pressure building over England with only a very slack easterly/northeasterly. The Atlantic,meanwhile, zonal conditions continue to affect at least the western half of Ireland. 06Z GFS is rolling out soon so we will see what that brings. |
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| mickger844posts | January 26 2012, 11:56 AM Post #68 |
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We will see what the GFS 06Z run has to offer but overall things are not shaping up well for this easterly to happen. Personally i can't see it myself. I think the Winter will continue as is with the odd cold period for a few days. Hope i'm wrong. |
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| Mark (IWO) | January 26 2012, 12:45 PM Post #69 |
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LATEST FROM AROUND THE WEB FOR NEXT WEEK Met Eireann Next week: The most likely scenario for next week is that it will be a coolish week with rainfall, sunshine and temperatures just about normal and some night frosts. Mixed weather everywhere with some sunny intervals and some spells of rain also with a possibility of sleet or even wet snow over the mountains. UK Met Office At the beginning of the week, although there is a lot of uncertainty, eastern and central areas will most likely see clear/sunny spells, and scattered showers, these mostly light but locally wintry. Westernmost areas will probably see more cloud, with occasional rain. Temperatures will probably be below average, the cold accentuated further by fresh winds from an eastern quadrant. Towards the end of the week and through the rest of the period, a general continuation of the cold weather type seems most likely, but it is by no means certain. There is a risk of snow, ice and sharp frosts, with easternmost parts being most prone. However we certainly cannot discount the possibility that mild west/southwesterly winds will return instead, bringing rain at times. WEATHERONLINE.CO.UK Monday 30/01/12 Generally a cloudy day with outbreaks of rain but this may turn to snow across eastern parts of England as temperatures drop. That area of rain and snow may move into central and northern parts of England tonight. Highs of 3 to 8C east to west. Tuesday 31/01/12 A very cold day and there is a risk of some snow across central and northern parts of England with rain in the west. Little change into the evening and night with some accumulations possible. A sharp frost tonight. Expect highs of 1 to 5C. Wednesday 01/02/12 Another very cold day to come and there is a further risk of some snow across central and northern parts of England with rain in the far west. A severe frost is possible tonight. Expect highs of 0 to 5C. Thursday 02/02/12 This could be a bitterly cold day across Britain. A frosty but dry and sunny morning. later as rain in the west moves east, it may change to snow across the country but dry across central and eastern parts of England and Scotland. Confidence is low in the forecast at this point. Highs of -2 to 3C. Friday 03/02/12 Outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow may affect much of the United Kingdom today. This may be heavy in the north and west. Highs of 0 to 5C. |
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| Mark (IWO) | January 26 2012, 01:26 PM Post #70 |
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The problem that we have at present is that we have plenty of cold air spilling south from the Arctic (see A0) but a strong positive North Atlantic Oscillation (see NAO chart) is inhibiting the progress of colder airmass to our shores. Essentially, the jetstream keeps us in a cool/cold zonal flow bringing occasional LP systems toward and over or close to Ireland. This setup along with HP over the Azores prevents any progression westwards of the cold that is building over Continental Europe. Despite continued ridging over Scandinavia, we need to see ridging toward eastern Canada and Greenland (i.e. put an end to the current zonal setup) for any E/NE to be considered likely. The last 2 runs of the GEFS have downgraded this prospect despite a growing trend toward same. The ECM has retreated toward the current GEFS line in its last two runs, but the UKMO seems to be holding its own. It will be interesting to see what the UK Met Office comes out with in its lunchtime update for next week after yesterday's 66% confidence in very cold weather from an easterly source. I think our winter is summed up by the latest GEFS which shows 0c uppers over Ireland and -5c uppers over north Africa, southern Italy and Greece. The Atlantic has been completely dominant this winter. |
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| Mark (IWO) | January 26 2012, 01:54 PM Post #71 |
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UK Met Office sticking to its guns today: UK Outlook for Tuesday 31 Jan 2012 to Thursday 9 Feb 2012: At the beginning of the week, although there is a lot of uncertainty, eastern and central areas will most likely see clear/sunny spells, and scattered showers, these mostly light but locally wintry. Westernmost areas will probably see more cloud, with occasional rain. Temperatures will probably be below average, the cold accentuated further by fresh winds from an eastern quadrant. Towards the end of the week and through the rest of the period, a general continuation of the cold weather type seems most likely, but it is by no means certain. There is a risk of snow, ice and sharp frosts, with easternmost parts being most prone. However we certainly cannot discount the possibility that mild west/southwesterly winds will return instead, bringing rain at times. Updated: 1126 on Thu 26 Jan 2012 UK Outlook for Friday 10 Feb 2012 to Friday 24 Feb 2012: The forecast for mid-February remains very uncertain. However, the most likely outcome is for much colder weather with winds mainly from an easterly quadrant to prevail, bringing widespread frosts, and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that would be most vulnerable to snowfall. There remains an alternative scenario, in which milder westerly winds prevail, the chances of this alternative scenario are currently rated as about one in three. Updated: 1142 on Thu 26 Jan 2012 |
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| Mark (IWO) | January 26 2012, 02:05 PM Post #72 |
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Latest GEFS ensemble shows about 7-8 of the 19 possible outcomes showing colder than average conditions over Ireland and about 12-14 of the 19 showing colder than average conditions over England. With the UK MET OFFICE sticking to its guns in its long range forecast today, it's clear that the outlook is far from certain. Having said that it is a familiar case of the arrival of cold weather being pushed further down the timeline.
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| Mark (IWO) | January 26 2012, 02:43 PM Post #73 |
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From the UKMO 12Z![]() Some snow potential for England and Scotland next Monday and Tuesday in a batttlegrond situation between cold air from the east and a system moving in from the west. |
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| Audi-Tek | January 26 2012, 02:50 PM Post #74 |
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Week ahead. From: Weather School Channel Jan 26, 2012 Cool rather than cold enough for snow..
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| Audi-Tek | January 26 2012, 03:12 PM Post #75 |
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MARK VOGAN'S EUROPEAN LONG RANGE: Wed, 25 Jan 2012 Video Mark is beginning to sound more and more like Piers Corbyn , and his exceptional cold weather ahead,Funny how the likes of Simon Keeling,or UK Met, cant see the same thing ahead. ADMIN MESSAGE Audi, To embed videos use the flash option rather than the image option. Just copy and paste the url after clicking on flash. Mark Edited by Audi-Tek, January 27 2012, 03:04 AM.
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| Mark (IWO) | January 26 2012, 03:25 PM Post #76 |
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Here is the same map shown by Mark, now updated. Back to positive again. |
| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
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| Audi-Tek | January 26 2012, 03:28 PM Post #77 |
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Prince
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Cheers Mark..thanks for that....... |
| Why is cloud 9 so amazing ? What is wrong with cloud 8 ? | |
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| Mark (IWO) | January 26 2012, 06:28 PM Post #78 |
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Admin
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Upgrade in the GEFS up to 96hrs for cold potential but not great after that. In the short term the Russian high builds and edges further west that shown in the 06z. High pressure to our southwest also ridges further west. At 132hrs ridging continues over Scandinavia from Russia but a strong jetstream still ensures the Atlantic influence over our weather. All a bit of a mess after 96hrs so the ECM at 6-7pm should help confirm or rebuke the GEFS trend for milder conditions as opposed to cold next week. ![]() ![]() Looks like the snow and ice is already hitting hard in parts of eastern and central europe MORE |
| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
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| Mark (IWO) | January 26 2012, 08:27 PM Post #79 |
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Admin
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ECM up to 96hrs shows the Russian high edging further west over Scandinavia i.e. a trend copied by the GEFS at 12z. This is an upgrade for those looking for an easterly/northeasterly to develop next week. East coast of England is covered by -8 uppers by Monday, which the UKMO has been hinting at for the past 24 hours. All in all, a short term upgrade for England at least meaning one step closer for Ireland. Ultimately, I think it may take until the end of next week before any cold extends over Ireland. The Atlantic is holding tough. |
| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
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| Audi-Tek | January 27 2012, 02:24 AM Post #80 |
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Prince
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MARK VOGAN'S EUROPEAN LONG RANGE: Thurs, 26 Jan 2012 Link .... http://youtu.be/FEjE-6A7Ha4 Edited by Audi-Tek, January 27 2012, 03:20 AM.
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| Why is cloud 9 so amazing ? What is wrong with cloud 8 ? | |
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