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| Cold Spell 31 Jan - 4 Feb | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: January 30 2012, 11:51 AM (1,396 Views) | |
| Mark (IWO) | January 30 2012, 11:51 AM Post #1 |
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This thread is dedicated to discussion on the upcoming cold spell. |
| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
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| Mark (IWO) | January 30 2012, 12:17 PM Post #2 |
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The latest (06z) GEFS charts up to late Wednesday show that snow could fall anywhere above 100-200m, but not exclusively, between Monday night and Tuesday night as an Atlantic system begins its retreat west having tracked across the country as rain. Cold air will replace the milder Atlantic airmass. Occasional snow showers are likely in the east and southeast up to late Wednesday but it will be fine and dry elsewhere after this front dissipates. Looks like the east of the country will bear the brunt of severe weather later in the week, which will include some snowfall and severe overnight frosts. The West too will see some frost and lesser risk of snow as the Atlantic will never be too far away from extending milder air eastward. Any front that pushes further east inland is likely to turn to snow as it hits colder air. Therefore, we are very much facing a marginal situation which is hard to call. It is best to be prepared for all eventualities. There is nothing to suggest that Ireland will see any repeat of December 2010. All of this could change, however, as changes to computer models can be expected within 24 hours of actual events. It is best to be on alert for potential severe weather (the risk of same in the west is lower than other parts of the country). The West can at least expect some severe overnight frosts and daytime temps around 3-5c at best. Severe overnight frosts and low daytime temps will affect the eastern half of Ireland with the possibility of snow showers or even streamers affecting the southeast in particular. The risk of heavier and more frequent snow showers increases for the south, southeast, and east on Thursday (see below map). At present weather models indicate milder air extending from the west during the weekend. This too is subject to change but is the most likely scenario at present. Below you will find a snow risk chart for the period Monday 9pm to Thursday. Green suggests 30-35% chance of snow, yellow suggests 45-60% chance of snow, orange/red/pink represent a higher risk. The risk is colour coded (see % risk in right hand panel). The map time is indicated in the top right of each frame. The charts are taken from the 06z GEFS run. View the individual charts at Netweather ![]() Latest weather forecasts: Peter O'Donnell WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, turning steadily colder in a raw southeast wind, sleety showers in some east coast locations, possibly remaining quite a bit milder over the far west, highs generally 1-4 C east to 4-7 C west. THURSDAY to SUNDAY ... It now seems very likely that eastern and northern counties will be into a very cold air mass that produces overnight readings of about -7 C or lower, and daytime readings of -2 to +2 C, with scattered streamer-generated snow or hail showers in parts of Wicklow, Dublin, Meath, and east Ulster. This could spread at times to parts of the south and central counties. The far west will not turn this cold, but may reach freezing or lower at night, with sleet possibly turning to snow, but with freezing rain in some inland areas, especially during the weekend when somewhat milder air tries to return east. This may in turn set off more snow in eastern Ireland. Rather early to speculate on amounts of snow in general, but local falls of 10 cms or more would be plausible. Met Eireann Very cold weather in store for much of the rest of this week with predominately easterly winds. Rain, sleet and some wet snow will clear southwestwards on Tuesday night and it will become very cold with clearing skies and temperatures falling to between 0 and -3 degrees with frost and icy conditions developing. Wednesday and Thursday will be very cold dry days in many areas but temperatures only rising to 2 to 4 degrees in the afternoons. And there is a risk that some wintry showers of hail or snow on parts of the east and south coasts at times. Very cold, frosty, icy nights with temperatures plummeting to between 0 and -5 degrees and the danger of some freezing fog locally also. There is a good deal of uncertainty about the prospects for the following few days as there will be a battle going on between the very cold air coming from the east and the milder air coming in off the Atlantic. The latest indications suggest it will become less cold especially in western areas during Friday and Saturday with rain moving in off the Atlantic and spreading eastwards, however a danger exists that this could bring some snow for a time further east if the cold air persists in more midland and eastern areas. UK Met Office Outlook for Wednesday to Friday: Bright but cold conditions spreading in from the east, with marked windchill and isolated wintry showers. Cloudier, milder conditions becoming limited to the far northwest (Scotland)) . Hard overnight frosts becoming widespread. Updated: 0406 on Mon 30 Jan 2012 Weatheronline.co.uk Thursday 01/02/12 - A very cold day and there is a risk of heavy snow showers around North Sea coasts. The bulk of the country looks dry with good sunny spells. Frosts soon develops this evening becoming widespread and penetrating hard frost by night. Highs of 0 to 1C. Friday 02/02/12 - A bitterly cold day across the country. Snow showers around eastern coasts may penetrate a bit further inland today with wintry showers also around western coasts. Central areas generally keeping dry, sunny conditions. A hard to locally severe frost is expected through the evening and night. Expect highs of -1 to 0C. Saturday 03/02/12 Little change expected across the country today with the country locked into freezing weather. More snow showers to come across eastern areas with a few in the west. Dry and sunny elsewhere. A hard to locally severe frost is expected again tonight and we could see heavy snow into Scotland. Expect highs of -2 to 0C. |
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| Mark (IWO) | January 30 2012, 01:22 PM Post #3 |
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The following link provides a useful animation of temps, wind and precipitation for the next 60 hrs. The precipitation data (HIRLAM) is used to create Met Eireann's precip charts. Incidentally, UKMO now going for a much shortened cold spell in its monthly outlook Cold start to February but how long will it last? So far this winter has been unusually mild but things are changing. An area of high pressure extending from Russia - the Siberian High - is taking control of our weather pattern and this means our temperatures are taking a tumble. This cold anticyclone is acting as a "block", preventing our usual westerly winds from bringing mild air across the UK from the Atlantic. One of the biggest challenges in forecasting this type of weather set-up is predicting how long it will last and thus how prolonged this spell of cold weather will be before we return to a more typical weather pattern. However we can say with some confidence that we are entering the most prolonged spell of cold weather we have seen so far this winter. Monday 30 January—Sunday 5 February The Siberian High dominates The week starts with cold air sitting over the bulk of the country but with mild air trying to make inroads across the southwest quadrant of the UK. This brings rain, sleet and snow at first but cold, easterly winds will push this front back westwards and eventually clear of the UK. Thereafter the country is predominantly under the influence of the ridge of high pressure which will be rather cloudy at first but then bring some much brighter days. This cold spell will bring wintry showers at times, predominantly feeding in from the North Sea to affect eastern areas and more especially so towards the end of the week. With a mixture of cold air and clear spells we will see a string of very cold nights with widespread frost forming and some freezing fog patches which may be very slow to clear during the day. Towards the end of the week mild air may start to push in Northern Ireland, bringing some less cold and rather more unsettled weather with rain or snow at times. Monday 6 February—Sunday 12 February The high weakens This week is when the difficulty in forecasting the development of the block is going to create significant uncertainty. It looks as though the high pressure will start to weaken through the course of the week, allowing a more mobile weather pattern to push into the west, however it is likely to be a rather slow process. In the east the high pressure will dominate for the longest, bringing continued cold weather with widespread frosts by night and areas of stubborn, freezing fog. In the west it will become increasingly unsettled with milder air bringing weather fronts riding up against the colder air. This messy transition period will bring stronger winds, spells of rain and sometimes hill snow pushing into the west. Monday 13 February—Sunday 26 February Staying cold? By the middle of February, although the block may have broken down, the weather looks likely to remain cold, with both daytime and night-time temperatures below average, particularly in the south. There may be slightly more sunshine that normal, leading to some bright, crisp winter days but we are also likely to see further widespread frosts and perhaps the risk of some significant snowfall. |
| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
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| Mark (IWO) | January 30 2012, 02:54 PM Post #4 |
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AO in strong negative territory suggesting that cold air will continue to feed south from the Arctic over the next week. NAO trending neutral or even negative in latest run. Both of the above support cold weather hanging on in Europe, not necessarily Ireland/UK. We could always face that situation of weather being forecast to break down from cold to mild only for it to be pushed back another day or two. The same happens with cold weather being modelled. It's always 7 days away
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| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
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| Mark (IWO) | January 30 2012, 03:39 PM Post #5 |
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Latest from Simon Keeling, WeatherOnline.co.uk |
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| Mark (IWO) | January 30 2012, 05:31 PM Post #6 |
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Ireland to avoid snows hitting central Europe, forecasters say Monday, January 30, 2012 - 10:00 AM We are in line for some very cold weather this week, but it is unlikely that we will see the widespread snowfalls being forecast for Wales. Met Éireann said temperatures would get lower as the week progressed, with frosty, icy nights and low temperatures by day. Rain will pass away by Tuesday. From then on, there is the possibility of sleet, hail, and isolated snow showers in northern parts. However, we will not be as badly affected as other parts of Europe, where a cold front from Siberia is coming in from the East. Temperatures in eastern central Europe could go as low as -10 or -15 this week. Three people have died amid heavy snow and freezing temperatures in central Serbia, authorities said today. Police said a woman froze to death in a snowstorm in a central village, while an elderly man was found dead in the snow outside his home. Another 81-year-old died in his snow-covered home in the same area. Authorities urged elderly people to stay indoors as temperatures dropped to -20C in some parts of the country. Heavy snow has also caused problems with traffic and power supplies, leaving thousands without electricity for much of the past week. Other parts of the Balkans have also been hit by heavy snow. Read more: http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/ireland-to-avoid-snows-hitting-central-europe-forecasters-say-537816.html#ixzz1kxKZgwTf |
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| Mark (IWO) | January 30 2012, 05:52 PM Post #7 |
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The GEFS is behaving somewhat like the music group Coldplay at the moment. With each new output you cannot help but feel it has lost the quality of its predecessors. The glorious sights of 15c uppers over Ireland have been replaced by -5to -8c uppers. Since the GEFS on steroids that we saw on Saturday, successive runs have downgraded the potential for cold weather during the coming week. However, it should be pointed out that these downgrades have not been significant enough to rule out the very real risk of ice and some snow. Whereas snow and ice seemed a certainty for much of the country, we are now looking at a much more marginal situation for the western half of the country, in particular. Further east, it does look like turning much colder with Thursday showing up as the most likely day for snow showers to affect the northeast, east and southeast (and perhaps the south coast). See attached Beyond this point it looks like milder weather will slowly begin to push eastwards, possibly falling as snow on its leading edge. This is the most likely outcome at present although there is still some indications in the latest GEFS that the cold will not retreat so quickly and that it will put up a fight. Should that happen then Ireland could become a battleground resulting in considerable snowfall. I am beginning to side with the former outcome at this stage as models, pending a dramatic turnaround, all indicate that the deep cold will leave all but eastern parts of England by the end of the weekend. Watching computer models at present is an emotional rollercoaster, especially if you are a cold lover. If you prefer milder, more unsettled weather (these people do exist) then you might be quietly confident that the upcoming cold spell will only turn out to be a brief flirt with winter. It’s not over, however, until Chris Martin sings! |
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| Mark (IWO) | January 30 2012, 06:38 PM Post #8 |
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GEFS ensembles for next Sunday morning. The majority indicate the Atlantic back in control with 4-5 suggesting that the cold weather will remain entrenched. |
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| cherryghost | January 30 2012, 07:01 PM Post #9 |
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Disappointing to say the least. East coast may be on a knife edge over the coming days at this point :/ |
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| Fergal (IWO) | January 30 2012, 10:23 PM Post #10 |
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From tomorrow to around late Thursday is our best bet for sea-effect snow showers. With high pressure dominant, upper levels will be too warm to allow for deep convection, but with a cold lower troposphere (surface to around 700 hPa), the 9-10 °C sea surface temperatures will generate vigorous shallow convection. Because the airmass will be very dry, this convection may not lead to extensive showers, but along the south and southeast coasts there will be the best chance of snow and graupel flurries. They should be fairly scattered and not too plentiful, and nothing like December 2010. A chance of seeing some snow later on Saturday as a band of precipitation signals the arrival of milder Atlandic air, and thereafter I would estimate westerlies or southerlies setting in up to around mid-month. |
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| Mark (IWO) | January 30 2012, 10:30 PM Post #11 |
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Some severe overnight frosts for all but western parts this week but milder conditions favoured to return by the weekend. The cold spell never really gets going in the western third of the country, according to the ECM. SE of the country manages to hold on to the coldest air up to late Friday. Thereafter, mild air becomes re-restablished with rain at times (sound familiar?) Some snowfall possible in all but western and southern coastal counties durng the transition from cold to milder conditions. 12Z ECM for Friday ![]() 24 hours later on the GEFS ![]() |
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| Peter (IWO) | January 31 2012, 04:36 AM Post #12 |
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Who would a forecaster be, with models this all at sea? -- Wm Shakespeare, "Winter of our Discontent" (not really, made all that up) Glad to see the IWO forum is alive and kicking again. My schedule is about as scrambled up as the models themselves, but I will try to do a couple of flying visits between forecasts that are posted regularly here around 0730h. The past two days have been a case of taking an initial assessment based not entirely but mostly on model consensus (and a bit of the hidden research), then trying to steer that forecast through cross currents because I hate chop and change forecast cycles, would rather be sliding gradually into an eventual direct hit from one side or the other. My preference so far is that the cold air will be strong enough to reach central Ireland and possibly the west coast, but not come blasting all the way through. This is more like the GEM or weaker versions of the GFS than the ECM or Euro, but time will tell. I am betting that the 00z runs will give us better consensus, but have felt all along that the strength of this outbreak is considerable and that when it interacts with the North Sea, watch out for fireworks in southeast England, which will have the knock-on effect of pushing the front at least as far west as let's say Cork to Mace Head. There could be places in Kerry that never get below freezing but I think almost all of Ireland will see some time in the deep freeze, if only part of one day in some places west of Kilkenny or so. Anyway, it's good to see an interesting weather pattern after about three weeks of rather boring weather by winter standards. Since that big windstorm on 3 Jan (I think) we've had some easily forgettable weather, kind of the same here much of the time. Back later or will it be earlier? |
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| Peter (IWO) | January 31 2012, 09:41 AM Post #13 |
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Models are still scattered on strength of cold outbreak and timing of breakdown (in some cases timing of frontal stall and rebound) ... have devised a forecast with GFS-GEM preferred in first 72h, then equal blends of all models trending more to ECM by mid-week. I think the situation is going to involve a fairly large amplitude temperature curve so I've gone with whichever model is more robust on each trend. Snowfall is the most difficult variable especially for Ireland, but I think Wicklow in particular could be in for some streamers Wednesday and/or Thursday, and there could be an outbreak of pre-warm-frontal snow Friday. More later if I recover from chronic fatigue (unlikely until morning my time). |
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| umph | January 31 2012, 11:24 AM Post #14 |
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I dont see any significant cold spell coming up. in actual fact based on todays forecast should you not be talking about the 14 degrees we might be getting with the upcoming mild spell? |
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| Mark (IWO) | January 31 2012, 12:05 PM Post #15 |
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Peter mentioned 14c in his forecast: OUTLOOK ... I am now more confident than earlier that my "plan A" has been adopted by the models and it will turn quite mild although generally dry in a somewhat anticyclonic westerly backing to southwest later. It may in fact become very mild, odd as that many sound, 12-14 C could occur by mid-week but it will start closer to 10 C. Some chance of rain later in the week. |
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| Mark (IWO) | January 31 2012, 12:13 PM Post #16 |
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GEFS has further downgraded snow potential for Friday and Saturday when an atlantic front crosses the country. Higher ground in Wales and much of southern England on the other hand will see snowfall at the leading edge of the front, at least. See below map. This could all change, stranger things have happened. At present, however, the models are leaning toward a swift return to zonal conditions. |
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| umph | January 31 2012, 12:23 PM Post #17 |
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I suppose my point is that the cold spell is likely to be 10 degrees by midweek and possibly 14 degrees so the cold spell is actually going to be possibly an exceptionally warm spell for early Feb. You speak of negative NAO etc. does that mean it is inevitably going to get colder and that we will have a winter high pressure situation or just that it might? have you had any thoughts on opening up a discussion on the possibilities for the spring?.....this winter has been so frustrating weatherwise I am read to move on! |
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| Mark (IWO) | January 31 2012, 12:46 PM Post #18 |
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Whatever about the expected swift end to the upcoming cold snap, things to look like remaining very cold in the Northern Hemisphere. There are signs that the Atlantic's comeback over this weekend and into next week may not last for too long as the NAO is showing signs of going low positive, neutral or lower. A strongly negative AO firstly shows us that cold air will continue to sink south from the Arctic, most likely over northern Canada, Greenland and Russia/China ![]() NAO shows dip by end of first week of Feb ![]() |
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| Mark (IWO) | January 31 2012, 02:29 PM Post #19 |
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There's a cluster of snow flurries moving across SE England at the moment, but not going to amount to much/ In Ireland today, there will be occasional local snow flurries near the east coast. |
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| Mark (IWO) | January 31 2012, 03:21 PM Post #20 |
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Sat image showing cold air passing over the North Sea |
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| Fergal (IWO) | January 31 2012, 03:24 PM Post #21 |
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Hoseda-Hard (59° E, 84 m), in northern Russia, reported a mean sea level pressure of 1068.2 hPa at midday today. Truly spectacular stuff!! http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynop?lang=en&esc=4&nav=Yes&lat=60N&lon=045E&proy=orto&base=bluem&ano=2012&mes=01&day=31hora=12&vpr=Pr |
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| SandraD77 | January 31 2012, 04:36 PM Post #22 |
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Awesome!
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This whole winter has been a dissapointment, with any cold spells always getting downgraded before there imminent arrival or only ever appearing in brief glimpses on FI charts! I predicted way back in Novemeber that this winter wouldn't yeild anything special and I hate to say that I was right (even though I really wanted to be proved wrong)! Such a shame... anyways with the model runs all progressively downgrading snow potential I fear that we've missed another opportunity for the white stuff and with Spring (I know weather people consider Feb a winter month) starting tomorrow time has closed in on any snow for this side of 2012. Time to move onto potential weather for Spring/Summer and put this awful dreary winter behind us! And don't we all know this hideous trend of dominant warmth won't be anywhere to be seen come Summer! Typical eh *lol* |
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| Mark (IWO) | January 31 2012, 05:20 PM Post #23 |
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Latest from Daniel Smith of www.UKweather.wordpress.com I mentioned a few days ago about the uncertainty of this weekend and stated one of three solutions possible, whilst their is still a huge amount of disagreement within the model suit at the moment it is indeed starting to look like we'll see some sort of breakdown through the course of the weekend, however, depending on the angle and strength of attack from the Atlantic is something that's causing issues and something that will need further monitoring, some models are keen for Eastern and South-Eastern areas hanging onto the very cold air which could produce some significant snowfalls across some parts of the country, but as I say at the moment, very uncertain. ![]() Having said that, there is a strong single for cold to continue into next week, so I think for the weekend onwards some areas seeing a fair amount of snowfall, further West it may turn slightly warmer for a time but Eastern and South-Eastern areas remaining cold, before turning cold again everywhere early next week, that is the most likely outcome, but is by no means certain. Looking closer to home though, some areas, particularly Eastern areas have seen some snowfall today albeit fairly light which has giving a dusting to one or two areas, as the week progresses I think we'll continue to see scattered and fairly light snow showers, these perhaps becoming a little heavier through Thursday and Friday.
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| Mark (IWO) | January 31 2012, 05:30 PM Post #24 |
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Latest from the UK Met Office Cold weather is set to continue this week, with temperatures getting progressively colder through to Friday when they are expected to drop as low as -10 °C in some places. Despite the cold, snow is not a big feature in the forecast as the majority of the UK will see dry and bright conditions. There is a risk of some light and scattered snow showers in some eastern coastal areas on Wednesday and Thursday, but any accumulations will be light and patchy. The reason for the cold weather is a high pressure sitting over Scandinavia, allowing cold air from eastern Europe to push in over the UK. But, as we head into the weekend, this weather pattern is set to come under threat as a front of milder air and rain tries to push in from the Atlantic to the west. Britain will be at the centre of a battle for supremacy between these two competing systems. It’s likely that the mild and wet Atlantic front will grind to a halt as it comes up against the blocking high sitting over Europe, but the uncertainty focuses on exactly where it will stop. You can see this uncertainty in our forecast temperature range (click HERE) for the next few days, which shows the range of temperatures we could see. As we get to Saturday, the potential range increases significantly – as we could see cold conditions persist or milder conditions take over. Either way, there is a risk that we may see some snow over the weekend as the rain in the Atlantic weather front collides with the cold air sitting over the country. Due to the high amount of uncertainty, it’s difficult to give any detail at the moment – but we should have a clearer picture in the coming days. For the latest information, stay up to date with our latest forecasts and warnings. |
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| Mark (IWO) | January 31 2012, 06:23 PM Post #25 |
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Some 'local' snow flurries are likely later this evening and overnight along the east coast. Some of them may be heavy enough to push further inland. We are not expected any significant accumulations Temps at present range between 2-4c countrywide, with the exception of the far SW and W. PETER O'DONNELL UPDATE TONIGHT ... Variable cloud with some clear intervals allowing patchy freezing fog to develop as lows drop to the range of -5 to -2 C inland ... larger cities and some coastal regions likely to remain just above freezing in places ... widespread icy sections on roads, some local flurries although most places dry. Far southwest could hold on to some light rain for a while. Please check back here on the forum around 6.30PM when Peter O'Donnell will provide a further update |
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| Fergal (IWO) | January 31 2012, 09:01 PM Post #26 |
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Soundings from England and the near Continent upstream today show some limited scope for showery development in the coming days, with increasingly drier air and an increasing inversion putting a cap on much of the convection. At the moment I would estimate that, given the 9-10 °C sea temperature, a sea track of at least 100 km will be required for enough sensible heat and moisture flux to generate anything other than some stratocumulus sheets at around 4-5000 ft, and even then the vertical extent of showers will be limited to below 10,000 ft. We could probably rule out showers for much of the east coast, with the south and southeast, as well as maybe northern Leinster and east Ulster coasts, getting anything decent. |
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| Mark (IWO) | January 31 2012, 10:41 PM Post #27 |
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Fergal, Here is the UKMO fax chart for Friday evening. Would I be correct that it shows a warm front meaning an upper cold front? If so, what would be your guess on what it would deliver for Ireland in terms of rain, sleet or snow? ![]() Incidentally, here are conditions from the GFS for the same time. Note the dewpoint is around 0-1c for much of the country. My own conclusion would be that snow is highly unlikely below 300m and even then snow will only fall at the leading edge of the front. Below 300m some, areas located east of Athlone will see some wet snow for a while. ![]() |
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| Fergal (IWO) | January 31 2012, 11:15 PM Post #28 |
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They're both cold fronts, but the one with the white triangles is an upper cold front, which means the frontal surface does not reach down to the surface. Not sure exactly why they've put it in there as the raw model data actually shows warm air advection at upper levels for that time. If it does materialise though then we could see some enhanced convection ahead of the main front, but I would think we may see it disappear in the next few releases. |
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| Peter (IWO) | January 31 2012, 11:29 PM Post #29 |
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I didn't update the forecast earlier because it's generally okay ... the basic theme however is cold and dry, precip will be the exception for most of the time that this cold spell lasts ... the comments earlier about what cold spell seem unrelated to the title which Mark gave the thread to indicate a time span from today to the weekend. Cold may hang on in parts of England or the continent past then, but Ireland will likely turn at least seasonably mild through gradual flushing out of trapped cold air over the weekend. Nothing's carved in stone with this rather complex set-up, the milder Atlantic air could hang back and fail to overcome some cold air in parts of the east, but the theme will certainly be milder after Sunday. Will it snow anywhere in Ireland during this four-day period? Probably, but most places may not see any. The most likely place to see snow would be part way up the Wicklow mountains on the seaward side, as well as some higher ground in east Ulster. The least likely place, other than Mark's house, would be the west coast. |
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| Mark (IWO) | February 1 2012, 12:03 PM Post #30 |
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The atlantic front looks like pushing quite fast across the country on Friday, further reducing opportunities for snowfall at its leading edge. Temps will rise quite quickly though the afternoon and evening, but it may just stay cool in the east and north until Sunday morning. Some snow is likely for a time on higher ground in eastern Ulster through Friday eve/night |
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| Fergal (IWO) | February 1 2012, 10:58 PM Post #31 |
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The image below shows the situation at midday today. The cyan areas show snow cover, which is plentiful over eastern Europe, becoming patchier the further west you go. We can see some snow over the Welsh mountains and the Pennines. The black lines are surface isobars and the blue contours show temperature advection at 700 hPa. This is an important feature in explaining the absence of clouds over the southern North Sea and Irish Sea, which gave us our nice crisp sunshine. Along with very low dewpoints coming off the continent, the cold advection in at 700 hPa caused downward motion in the atmosphere, which acts to supress cloud development. We can see that the cloud free area pretty much occurs where this cold advection is at a maximum. Also responsible is the relatively short sea-track in that area, whereas further north, the air has been crossing mostly sea since the eastern Baltic. ![]() Image from http://www.eumetrain.org/eport/euro_12.php?width=1366&height=768&date=2012020112®ion=euro We should see a similar picture tomorrow, although towards tomorrow night we could see more in the way of cumulus or stratocumulus clouds, which may develop further to produce the odd flurry along southeastern and eastern coasts. Friday sees a band of rain move eastwards, and with some cold air in place, eastern areas could see some sleet or snow for a time, especially on high ground, before it turns to rain as the milder air moves in. After dark on Friday evening we could briefly see some freezing rain in the far east if temperatures cool enough before the arrival of the rain band. |
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| Patrick (IWO) | February 2 2012, 04:04 AM Post #32 |
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-5.0c at Dublin Apt on the 1am reports with -4.0c at Ballyhaise, Oak Park and Mullingar. -3.0c at Casement, Claremorris and Gurteen and generally between -2.0c and 0.0c elsewhere. http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp |
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| ConorLK | February 2 2012, 04:33 AM Post #33 |
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Ballyhaise also down to -5C on the 2pm reports, numerous stations on -3C & -4C. Roches Point the warmest station at +4C Hovering around -1C here which is quite far off the potential -5C ME showed on the 9pm news,maybe a bit better come morning time Edited by ConorLK, February 2 2012, 04:33 AM.
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| skibboy | February 2 2012, 05:50 AM Post #34 |
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now up to 0.8c, strange somehow.. |
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| Mark (IWO) | February 2 2012, 12:37 PM Post #35 |
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06Z GFS has little support for snowfall over the next 4-36hrs, expect for mountain summits in the nw and north and perhaps lower down in east Ulster/N Leinster for a short period. |
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| Mark (IWO) | February 2 2012, 01:10 PM Post #36 |
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Projected snow depth charts for the coming 48 hours, provided by Netweather |
| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
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| Mark (IWO) | February 2 2012, 02:10 PM Post #37 |
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More on snow risk for Britain |
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| Mark (IWO) | February 2 2012, 03:32 PM Post #38 |
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LATEST FROM UKMO This weekend will see a marked change in the weather as the dry spell makes way for snow and ice for many parts. Over the past few days we have seen the coldest spell of the winter so far, as very cold air has flooded across the UK from the continent. Temperatures have dropped as low as -9.4 °C in Shap, Cumbria, and -10 °C is possible in places tonight. Snow showers are expected along parts of the eastern coastline today and tomorrow, but most places will continue to see bright, dry and cold conditions. Things are set to change as we go through into Saturday, however, as an Atlantic front moves in from the west. Paul Gundersen, Deputy Chief Forecaster at the Met Office, said: "As this front moves in from the west it will come up against cold air and we're likely to see a mixture of rain, sleet and snow across the UK. "It's a finely balanced situation, so there is some uncertainty about which areas will see the most significant snowfall, but at the moment the risk is highest in central and eastern areas where we could see up to 5-10cm of snow. "With this risk of snow and ice over the next few days it is important people stay up to date with our weather forecasts and warnings for the latest information." Later on Saturday it is likely that northern and western parts of the UK will see slightly less cold conditions take over, with rain more likely than snow. However, with the rain falling on cold ground there is a widespread ice risk. Thereafter this east/west split is likely to continue, with the south and east remaining cold with ice and freezing fog likely. The north and west should be milder. |
| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
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| Mark (IWO) | February 2 2012, 11:48 PM Post #39 |
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Here comes the rain. Should be touching down on the west coast around 5-6am. -0.8c here at present but likely to be up to 3-4c by morn, hence rain. For the west, this cold snap has turned out to be similar to a fridge freezer door being left open overnight. Some wet snow is likely for a while tomorrow in Border counties and on higher ground in Mayo and perhaps Louth. Of course, Ninja Snow (aka surprise snow) could appear anywhere east of the midlands but it will be shortlived. |
| The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare. | |
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| ConorLK | February 3 2012, 12:33 AM Post #40 |
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Not a bad few days anyway, the driest spell of weather here since last April I think. Tomorrow looks like rain everywhere, I think I'd prefer that to snow that'd quickly turn to slushy muck anyway. It'll be interesting to see what happens in Britain though, could be a decent snowfall event for them |
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could appear anywhere east of the midlands but it will be shortlived.
8:14 PM Jul 11