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Winter 2011-12
Topic Started: January 31 2012, 02:09 PM (1,874 Views)
Mark (IWO)
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This thread is dedicated to general discussion on winter 2011-12. The meteorological winter lasts from Dec to Feb.

Latest GFS ensembles for Dublin show average temperatures rising from the weekend.

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Whatever about the expected swift end to the upcoming cold snap, things to look like remaining very cold in the Northern Hemisphere. There are signs that the Atlantic's comeback over this weekend and into next week may not last for too long as the NAO is showing signs of going low positive, neutral or lower.

A strongly negative AO firstly shows us that cold air will continue to sink south from the Arctic, most likely over northern Canada, Greenland and Russia/China.
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NAO shows dip by end of first week of Feb
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Indications of a more prolonged cold spell by late Fri-Sat of next week, which will commence with a plunge of arctic air followed by a northeasterly that lasts for at least 5 to 6 days.

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Between now and then we have a brief cold spell followed by a week long (perhaps slightly less) of much milder weather.
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UKMO expect the weather to cool down significantly around mid month

UK Outlook for Sunday 5 Feb 2012 to Tuesday 14 Feb 2012:

Sunday is likely to be unsettled and mostly cloudy with a band of rain and snow lying north to south across the country. Although there remains considerable uncertainty regarding exactly where this band will lie central and eastern parts are most likely to see snow and/or ice, with perhaps some significant falls of snow in places. Less cold in the north and west, but remaining cold elsewhere. Into next week, eastern, central and southern areas are likely to become more settled with a good deal of dry weather. Temperatures here are likely to stay cold, perhaps even very cold for some. Northern and northwestern areas then remaining unsettled with rain and strong winds at times but less cold. The cold theme looks likely to continue into the following week.

Updated: 1239 on Tue 31 Jan 2012

UK Outlook for Wednesday 15 Feb 2012 to Wednesday 29 Feb 2012:

Cold weather looks likely during this period with both daytime maximum and night-time minimum temperatures likely to be below or well below average much of the time. This would also suggest rainfall amounts being largely near or below average in many areas but, possibly, above average over southern Britain. Given below average temperatures are expected, some snow is also likely at times.

Updated: 1239 on Tue 31 Jan 2012
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Ensemble permutations generally in agreement regarding cold weather later next week.

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Just a quick post on the ECM 32...

Clearly the UKMO update does cover this week. The ECM 32 day in my opinion has now been excellent all winter, when it didn't look as though the present E'ly would materalise the updates continued to signal it and whilst the details may well be somewhat different, the overal pressure patterns are the same and hence we have the cold E'ly flow.

The continuation from previous updates is evident in today's images. The E'ly flow remains a risk next week, more than some of the models are showing, but the ECM ENS mean does show it from the 00Z run and the ECM Det/Control from the 00Z runs where indeed outliers, the ECM ENS mean is as follows;

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1921.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1922.gif

A far cry from the Det - http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif | http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1922.gif

There is defiintely ECM ENS support for this evolution, but as I have mentioned on twitter the spread of synoptic possibilities as early as 120hr is large. Clearly the 06Z GFS ENS has shifted towards the milder solutions, particularly for the N and W of the UK, but I wouldn't rule out some sort of rain/snow event over the weekend, fizzling out to then be replaced by predominantly settled conditions and high pressure with a weak E or SE'ly again. This is what the ECM 32 day is showing.

The signal from the UKMO for above average precipitation is in conjunction with the ECM 32 day showing a -ve pressure anom either over or just to the S of the UK, whilst high pressure dominates to the N and NW. As a result the further we progress into Feb then further E or NE'ly flows are possible, but this could well be far more cyclonic and snowier than at present. Granted temperatures may not be just as cold with 850mb temperatures not as low, but all the signs are there for a predominantly cold, unsettled and wintry mid and latter half to February once we have broken away from the more anticyclonic conditions into early February for perhaps a week.

If the ECM 32 is acknowledged as being correct, clearly February has to pass yet and time will tell, but given it's track record so far this winter and particularly inrelation to picking up this pattern change late January, then February does indeed look a very interesting and wintry month.

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global 2 metre anomaly close to 0.5c BELOW normal as drop continues

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AO staying negative while NAO looks like staying low positive. The most likely result = Atlantic to control of our weather next week but it will not be as unsettled or windy as the first few weeks of Jan and December.

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Simon Keeling (weatheronline.co.uk) update for week ahead



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UKMO UPDATE for mid Feb

UK Outlook for Thursday 16 Feb 2012 to Thursday 1 Mar 2012:

Temperatures will probably be around average at first, but cold weather looks likely to prevail during this period, with both daytime maximum and night-time minimum temperatures likely to be below average for much of the time. Rainfall amounts will probably be near or below average in many areas, but possibly above average over southern Britain, and with below average temperatures expected there is the potential for snow at times.

Updated: 1219 on Wed 1 Feb 2012
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Latest GEFS showing very mild and often unsettled conditions for Ireland and western Britain next week followed by cooler zonal conditions up to and including mid Feb with the odd incursion of colder conditions from the NW. Basically, a repeat of what we have had all winter. Meanwhile, parts of E and SE England and the rest of Europe will remain locked in colder conditions for all of next week.
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GFS average temp for Dublin over the next two weeks shows a dramatic rise in temperatures next week followed bya dip around mid-month as has been signalled by Peter O'Donnell.

Ensembles do differ greatly from around 7-8th so confidence beyond these dates is low.

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AO staying negative into mid February

NAO trending low positive but disagreement beyond next week.
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GFS ensembles average temp for Dublin. A notable dip, with general consensus, toward the end of the second week of Feb
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Latest from UKMO

UK Outlook for Thursday 9 Feb 2012 to Saturday 18 Feb 2012:

A northwest-southeast split is likely across the UK for much of the period through to mid-February. Southern, central and eastern areas should be largely dry and bright, but often cold or very cold with hard overnight frosts and some freezing fog patches. Further north and west conditions should be often less cold but windier, with bands of rain becoming slow-moving, giving snow on their forward edge and more generally over higher ground. During the middle weekend there are some signs that unsettled conditions to the northwest could extend further south with a risk of snow. During the following working week, although the northwest-southeast split should initially reassert itself, conditions in the northwest may increasingly spread south and eastwards to displace some of the drier, brighter and more settled weather.

Updated: 1259 on Sat 4 Feb 2012

UK Outlook for Saturday 18 Feb 2012 to Saturday 3 Mar 2012:

Mainly cold weather looks likely to prevail during this period, with both daytime maximum and night-time minimum temperatures expected to be below average for much of the time. Rainfall amounts will probably be near or below average in many areas, but possibly above average over southern Britain. Meanwhile, with below average temperatures expected, there is the potential for some snow at times.

Updated: 1259 on Fri 3 Feb 2012
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A dip in temps expected from around Friday of next week according to the GEFS. This will follow some much milder conditions between today and Wed/Thur.

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AO stays in well into negative territory which means cold air will continue to flood south from the Arctic. The NAO is trending much lower which bodes well for a less active Atlantic.


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I think we could be heading for a Polar Vortex split in the next week or so, and with warm air pumping northwards towards the Pole we could see a Greenland high set up by mid month. This may or may not join up with the Azores high, which would lead to the negative NAO and cold north-northwesterlies as cold troughing sets up over Scandinavia. It remains to be seen though whether or not we will be on the right side of this cold outbreak, as too many times it misses us to the east.
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CONFIDENCE = LOW: 30%. Current model output points to a cold spell with some severe overnight frosts but the period referred to is distant enough to merit low confidence at this stage. Confidence in a cold spell will increase closer to the time should models stay on course.

INTRO: 6 of 7 computer models are indicating that colder weather may once again extend west across Ireland by Thursday/Friday next week. How far west remains very unclear. The GEM and GFS have been signalling this since Thursday but all other models are now beginning to signal cold weather affecting Ireland by next weekend and through the following week. There is NO indication that snow will occur across Ireland during next weekend although a return of the cold frosty nights that we saw this week is highly likely according to current model guidance.

Of course, at this stage all computer output for this period is subject to change and possibly significant change. Either way, trend is your friend when it comes to model watching and the trend certainly is for things to cool down considerably later next week.

A strong negative Arctic Oscillation and a NAO trending low positive, neutral or even negative by next week suggests that cold air will continue to flood south from the Arctic while the Atlantic will become less active. This suggests the winter is far from over and that Ireland could very well be plunged into a severe wintry spell. AO and NAO indices are attached below. It should be noted that any easterly/southeasterly setup for Ireland next weekend will result in significant cold due to the entrenched, severe cold airmass over the Continent. In fact, parts of SE England may hold on to cold or very cold weather for all of next week.

Model Review (Friday 10 Feb):
Each of the four main computer models signal colder weather extending slowly westwards from the continent. Severe nighttime frosts and daytime temps in low single figures are likely by next weekend under current model guidance. Note the Greenland High.

The UKMO and ECM models indicate a slack SE/E setup with high pressure nearby keeping the weather settled but delivering severe overnight frosts. The GEFS and GEM are slightly more aggressive with the progression of colder weather westwards over the country. High pressure over the North Sea helps to drag colder air over the southern half of Britain and across Ireland.

UKMO
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ECM
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GFS

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GEM
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Interestingly, the lesser known NOGAPS and models are also indicating colder weather by Thursday/Friday.

NOGAPS
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JMA
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The only computer model suggesting that the Atlantic will remain in control of our weather is the CFS, which has been touted by some as one of the better performing models this winter. It will be interesting to see if the CFS will fall into line with other model guidance or maintain its milder outlook.

CFS
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At this stage it is difficult and somewhat pointless to be speculating on precipitation amounts. Precipitation at the best of times can only be accurately forecast within a 24-48 time-frame. Furthermore, it is very difficult to determine the severity or longevity of any cold spell being signaled on models 144hrs out. Suffice to say, it does look like turning colder. While the SE of England looks like holding on to colder weather for much of the coming week, we will remain in the current milder setup until at least Thursday.

WORD OF CAUTION: This thread has been started based on 2-3 days of GFS/GEM output indicating a cold spell and the coming on board of the ECM and UKMO today, Saturday. Confidence in a return to colder weather is low at present. Models are subject to change with each successive run.

View the models here

Keep an eye on this thread for further updates and remember you can join in the discussion by becoming a member of this forum (registration takes less than a minute).
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A Multimodel blend of the GFS/GEFS/ECMWF/BOM for the 11th shows high pressure at both the surface and upper levels over Ireland, and T850 around -6 °C. Like this week, this would bring cold nights but no snow, except in the case where the upper low over Biscay made it up further north.

Images from www.meteogiornale.it

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Latest from Simon Keeling of weatheronline.co.uk
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Not seeing anything particularly exciting on the charts front myself. ECMWF this morning for example keeps Ireland on the periphery of anything major, either from the east or west (or north or south for that matter) with anticyclonic or ridge conditions being the dominant feature for Ireland for the foreseeable with any frontal activity likely to be very weak and temperatures around average (192hr chart below). The phrase 'stuck in a rut' springs to mind. -k-i-c-k-

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Met Eireann Monday AM
Thursday will see outbreaks of light rain or drizzle in the northwest but otherwise it will be a dry, cold day with light southerly winds across the country and it will be very cold and frosty overnight again.

Friday will be cold too with light to moderate southerly winds. There's a possibility of some light rain, which may be wintry, particularly over high grounds.

The further outlook for next weekend is for cold weather as winds back southeasterly. Temperatures overnight are likely to be well below freezing and there's a risk of some light wintry precipitation.
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umph
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I watched the countryfile weekly forecast on BBC last night and they were pretty clear that Northern Ireland and large parts of west and northern Britain would remain firmly mild. The models are more or less unable to decipher what is going on in the atmosphere more than 24 hours out from what I can see
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Latest NAO and AO
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UK Met Office says high pressure is most likely going to keep our weather cool/cold and dry with western areas more likely to see some precip, sometimes wintry.

Monthly Outlook
Summary
The block persist but for how long?

The start of February saw a battle between high pressure in the east, bringing cold, Siberian air across the UK and westerlies bringing milder air feeding in from the Atlanitc. The boundary between the two is where rain and snow can form - as many parts of the country expereinced last weekend.

Once this type of "block" gets set up, it can become very persistant and this is what we are continuing to see as we head through the the month. One of the biggest challenges in forecasting this type of weather set-up is predicting how long it will last and thus just how prologned this spell of cold weather will be before we return to a more typical weather pattern.
Monday 6 February—Sunday 12 February
The high dominates

This week sees the high pressure dominating across the majority of the country with mild air pushing into the west at times, mainly at the beginning and end of the week.

The east will see a cold but mostly dry week. By night frost and ice will form as well as areas of freezing fog which will often be very slow to clear. Where this fog persists the temperatures will become very suppressed - often struggling to creep above freezing. There will be some bright spells around but with the odd snow flurry also a risk from time to time.

In the west there will be more variation in the weather. At times the mild air will feed in from the west to give windier, milder weather with outbreaks of rain, perhaps turning wintry at times. However, these fronts will tend to weaken as they push into the high pressure, so brighter, drier days with frost and fog by night are also on the cards.
Monday 13 February—Sunday 19 February
The high shifts - or does it?

By the middle of February high pressure still looks likely to be dominating our weather pattern. The questions is exactly where it will become most prominant. It looks most likely to remain to the east, however there is a smaller possibility it will shifts southwestwards.

The first scenario would bring the continued cold, frosty and foggy conditions to the east with weather fronts continuing to push into the west.

The second scenario would allow low pressure systems to feed around the high pressure across the northern half of the UK, with wetter and windier conditions here. In this case the colder, drier weather would persist in the south.
Monday 20 February—Sunday 4 March
Turning milder?

In this period we may start to see the breakdown of the high pressure as weather fronts make increasing progress across the country, bringing milder air with them, although it could be a very slow process.

It will start cold where the high pressure remains in charge with frost and fog still on the menu. Gradually milder, more unsettled weather may make inroads from the northwest, bringing a more typical weather pattern to the rest of the country. If this transition takes place there may be a period of snow and despite this change to milder weather, given the time of year overnight frosts are still likely from time to time.

Alternatively if the high pressure remains in place the cold weather will continue for much of the UK.
Next week

Just how quickly will the block break down and where will the mild air end up?
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GAME OVER FOR SNOW LOVERS :-( I've been following Simon Keeling most of the winter and he's been pretty much spot on in all his forecasting - he's going with milder in the short - mid range and all models currently supporting this. http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php?code=ePujQPvp7tc

So for this winter I'm saying adieu and ola a hopefully warm, bright Sping/Summer!!! As for snow, well there's always next winter!!!!
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Looks like there will be a good deal of dry weather for many during the weekend at next week with high pressure nearby or over Ireland. It is likely to be overcast with showers or mist/drizzle at times in sw, w and nw coastal counties, however. (some things never change!)

Nighttime frosts are likely from midweek this week trhough to early next week at least. Inland SE most at risk. Should stay above freezing in the western third of the country.

Saturday 11 and Thursday 16

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High pressure as is being progged at the moment usually leads to endless mist and gloom here so yet another poor week ahead it seems. I'd gladly take a repeat of early/mid December now with raging Pm westerlies but even that seems quite an ask in the medium term
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With a lot of moisture trapped under the high we may see fairly some foggy nights overall, with maybe the odd touch of ground frost, but air frost seems unlikely given the amount of moisture present. Where the sun does shine it will feel very nice, as it did in the south today, but fog could be the headline this week.
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Any suggestion of colder weather over the next week appear to have dissipated. Overcast at times, temps around or slightly above average. Nighttime frosts possible tonight and over the weekend, depending on cloud cover.
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Mark (IWO)
February 7 2012, 12:32 PM
Any suggestion of colder weather over the next week appear to have dissipated. Overcast at times, temps around or slightly above average. Nighttime frosts possible tonight and over the weekend, depending on cloud cover.
What's your thoughts on the charts for next week? I know it's far away but 14th/15th doesn't look too bad, are the straws clutchable? p-o-pc-o-rn
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Fizzy
February 7 2012, 12:44 PM
Mark (IWO)
February 7 2012, 12:32 PM
Any suggestion of colder weather over the next week appear to have dissipated. Overcast at times, temps around or slightly above average. Nighttime frosts possible tonight and over the weekend, depending on cloud cover.
What's your thoughts on the charts for next week? I know it's far away but 14th/15th doesn't look too bad, are the straws clutchable? p-o-pc-o-rn
I know Peter has hinted at a colder trend next week with a shift to a more northerly airmass. The UKMO has also hinted at this for many weeks, despite a downgrade on the cold potential for mid February it has been hinted for the past week.

It does look like becoming increasingly unsettled, however, which suggests a more active Atlantic that what we are going to see for the next 5 days or so.

The 06GFS, which is still rolling out, does show that northerly plunge midweek next week (850hpas attached for Wed and Thur next week) lasting into the following week but this is way into FI territory. One to keep an eye on though and to see if the models trend toward such a setup.

Interestingly, the ECM also agrees with the latest GFS.
Posted Image

Other models are not so keen to follow suit.

Will keep an eye on it, Fizzy.

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The UK saw another cold night with Scotland seeing the lowest temperature. Aboyne, Aberdeenshire saw temperatures fall to -9.7°C. The lowest temperature in England was -8.6°C recorded at Church Fenton in North Yorkshire.

Below are a selection of minimum temperatures for the night 6/7th February:
Station name Temp °C
Aboyne No 2 -9.7
Braemar No 2 -9.1
Church Fenton -8.6
Shap -7.8
Leconfield -7.7
Lossiemouth -7.2
Kinloss -7
Eskdalemuir -6.8
Carterhouse -6.6
Altnaharra No 2 -6.5
Loch Glascarnoch -6.4
Aviemore -6.3
Woodford -6.3
Dalwhinnie No 2 -6
Fyvie Castle -6
Newton Rigg -5.8
Drumnadrochit -5.7
Lentran -5.5
Redesdale Camp -5.5
Linton On Ouse -5.4
Tyndrum No 3 -5.4
Kinbrace, Hatchery -5.2
Scampton -5.1
Dyce -5
Frittenden -5

Tonight will again see another bitterly cold night with temperatures falling as low as -10°C to -12°C in some areas.
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[ *  *  *  *  *  *  *  *  * ]
Tuesday's detailed 10-14 day outlook 7/2/12
From: Weather School Channel Feb 7, 2012

Why is cloud 9 so amazing ? What is wrong with cloud 8 ?
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That plunge of northerly air misses all but the eastern third of Ireland next week. Even then it is short lived but hits Britain head on.

Winter 2011-12 remains true to form
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Going by the GFS 12z run, it would appear that we are in for some heavy rain 0ver the next 3 days ... -r-a-i-n -r-a-i-n

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p-c-w-h-ac-k p-c-w-h-ac-k Of course, when we had the real cold,,we couldnt any precipitation, to cause snow.
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ecm 12Z has northerly plunge affecting all but the southwest of Ireland on Wednesday 15th
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Cold gets pushed away east thereafter with high pressure building from the west
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Nothing too exciting but better than nothing I suppose, no doubt anything interesting will miss us to the east though!
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Things are continuing as I though they would. We have the strong poleward flow over Alaska, with the large NE Canadian trough retreating back westwards to allow the Azores high to build northwestards. They poleward flow towards Alaska looks like it may not build the Greenland high for long, though, and with zonality looking like increasing from eastern Asia to North America, some energy looks like setting up a progressive pattern again for much of the globe. The high to our west will probably be short-lived, with the NAO turing postitive again for the last decade of the month. So if we don't get something from next week's northerly (which seems increasingly like missing us to the east) then we could be looking at westerlies again for the rest of the month.

So in summary, not great prospects for cold lovers for the rest of the month. -n-o-
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Met Eireann update:
Indications suggest colder weather developing for the early days of next week with freshening northwest to north breezes setting in, bringing some showers, mostly to western and northern areas with mainly dry, cold conditions elsewhere. Frosts more likely by night.

MODELS
GFS and ECM show high pressure nearby or over Ireland with average temps and largely settled conditions. Some frost likely at night. UKMO has a northerly over the country on Tuesday bringing night time frosts and wintry showers to the northwest, north and northeast
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