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Winter 2011-12
Topic Started: January 31 2012, 02:09 PM (1,875 Views)
Mark (IWO)
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Greenland block far from locked in yet as far as i can see

Mark Vogan - Classic Greenland block sets up this weekend onwards. Brings return of winter to Eastern US and UK. Worst of winter next 20 days for both sides!!!!
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Patrick (IWO)
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I think we should make a pact not to even consider what Mark Vogan, Matt Hugo, Simon Keeling and so on and so boringly forth have to say, because 1. they are UK specific, and as we know, the weather of the UK can be vastly different to that of Ireland. 2. they are taking rubbish most of the time. Their intent, in my opinion, is not about informing the public, but hyping the public up simply to increase their own notoriety; and it doesn't even matter if they are right or wrong, as the general public tend to forgot if a forecast does not play out as predicted and will read and listen with equal vigor to the next one if it tells them what they want to hear. 3. Hyping up the prospect of a severe cold spell weeks in advance I don't think is good practice. Rumours begin to spread on the street, and those people who genuinely fear such weather, such as the elderly who cannot even afford to eat half the time, not mind heat their homes, could be, and often are, worrying themselves needlessly about how they are going to cope in such weather.

In summary, we don't need them, we are not gaining anything from such forecasts, they are pointless.

End of ranty post. -scar-ed[

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Mark (IWO)
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Agreed, Paddy. I only posted his Facebook update as an ob more than anything else.

But I do think Simon Keeling is much more palatable and has performed quite well over the winter. He is as likely to call milder weather as he is colder weather. Mark is over enthusiastic about cold which taints his ability to forecast while Matt Hugo is...wait a sec who the hell is Matt Hugo ???

Ps...you can come out from behind the sofa now. They have left the building.


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Atlantic becoming more active mid-month if the latest NAO is anything to go by
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Snow risk for England on Friday

Through the course of Friday an area of rain is expected to push Southwards across the country and as it hits the colder air currently in place it's likely to turn to snow. There's still some uncertainty over totals and which areas are likely to see the worst of the snowfall but I think the Midlands South-Eastwards are likely to see a period of heavy snowfall with some fairly large accumulations in places. The map below is to be taken as a guide, an update to this and a weather warning will be issued on Thursday evening to take into account all the latest information - ukweather.wordpress.com

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Mark (IWO)
February 8 2012, 04:07 PM
Matt Hugo is...wait a sec who the hell is Matt Hugo ???



Don't know much about him myself, except that I seem to be reading his 'tweets' quite regularly when they are posted up on weather forums. I think he is a meteorologist with Weather Commerce, so he should know better.

I have noticed that he can be very selective in the information he gives out in his tweets and often cites the '32 day ensembles', from the ECMWF when they point towards colder conditions, but which are as useful as an ashtray on a bicycle. My main point is that such forecasts and tweets lack any sort of objectivity, but pander to a certain section of the weather community who want to see such conditions develop. I am no expert in forecasting myself so I can't really talk but looking at the bigger picture is something that should always be considered.

Fair point on Simon Keeling, I was a little too harsh there, he just got caught in the crossfire of my bad mood t-on--gu-e . I think this persistent gloomy weather is beginning to take its toll on me! Fru_s_trate h-e-h-e
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Mark (IWO)
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We need not worry about Positive Weather Solutions anymore. I presume you read THIS Paddy?

Also, James Madden is still at it. His forecasts are becoming very entertaining. p-o-pc-o-rn The best Weather Whatiwouldlikecaster in the business.
http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

15th - 28th February
1. “I expect things to significantly change to a more prolonged period of much colder and snowier weather across many parts of the UK. Any periods of moderation are likely to be very brief in nature and will be 'rapidly' replaced by colder and snowier conditions. Many northern and central parts of the UK will experience some frequent and heavy falls of snow at times within this period, and this does include lower levels in these parts too. Parts of southern and eastern England, Wales, and Northern Ireland can also expect some falls of snow and wintry showers within this time period too.”

2. “Temperatures as a whole for this period (February) and into the first week of March are likely to be well below-average. It is also likely that there will be some school closures and disruptions to public transport from snowfall within this time period too.”
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James Madden is that not the guy that invented the American football game for playstation?
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Mark (IWO)
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umph
February 8 2012, 06:24 PM
James Madden is that not the guy that invented the American football game for playstation?
No, that would be John.

But ironically they do both share the uncanny ability to provide wildly inaccurate forecasts. UK James couldn't punt to save his life though.
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Mark (IWO)
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Britain bears the brunt of any cold northerlies next Tuesday. However, the prospects for colder weather here have increased in the latest GFS when compared to the previous run

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Astrakhan, Russia hit a new record low of -33.8C on Wednesday. Elsewhere, France is experiencing its longest cold snap in 15 years. The country set a National record for electricity consumption on Tuesday (100k MW). Meanwhile, the UK Met Office has issued an early warning for snow in parts of England on Thursday night and Friday. Staying much milder in Ireland
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Fergal (IWO)
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Ojmjakon, the world's coldest village, reached its coldest night of the winter so far. In eastern Siberia, at an altitude of 745 metres above sea level, it fell to -55.9 °C overnight, beating the previous coldest night of -55.1 °C on December 31st. Today it reached a high of -47.0 °C.

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=24688&ndays=100&ano=2012&mes=02&day=08&hora=21&ord=REV&Send=Send
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Mark (IWO)
February 8 2012, 05:02 PM
Snow risk for England on Friday

Through the course of Friday an area of rain is expected to push Southwards across the country and as it hits the colder air currently in place it's likely to turn to snow. There's still some uncertainty over totals and which areas are likely to see the worst of the snowfall but I think the Midlands South-Eastwards are likely to see a period of heavy snowfall with some fairly large accumulations in places. The map below is to be taken as a guide, an update to this and a weather warning will be issued on Thursday evening to take into account all the latest information - ukweather.wordpress.com

Think this is meant to happen on Thursday now, rather than Friday. Met office have already issued warnings. There is still a couple of inches of snow where I live, that has been there since last weekend.
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As per yesterday next Tuesday's northerly blast looks like hitting Britain rather than Ireland.
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Any hint of colder weather has now faded in the 12z GFS. Weekend and early next week will bring some bright and sunny spells but on the whole it does not look like it will be dramatically different from the past few days zzzzzzzz
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Children sledding at Hainult Forest in Essex this afternoon. More snow and freezing rain fell across parts of England today. Image via Twitter
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Michael Fish has his latest forecast and as last week there's some snow to end the week. Beyond that things become slightly less cold for a time, but look north for another potentially wintry blast into next week.





Latest weekly outlook from Michael Fish....................... http://youtu.be/ZEljjC85mu8
Edited by Audi-Tek, February 9 2012, 08:22 PM.
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Fergal (IWO)
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I still see things playing out as described the other day, with cold troughing taking over from the Scandi high. There seem to be slight differences in the exact movement of our local high over the weekend in response to variations in the handling of the low pressure system that's currently near New Foundland and which will skip along the top of the high and down the North Sea early next week. In any case it looks increasingly likely that we will be a couple of hundred miles too far west.....again, and central, eastern and southern Europe will see another (less harsh) blast.

In the longer term the high should sink southwards and allow a more cool zonal setup to take hold, keeping the NAO slightly positive. We could see some more cold northwesterlies at times, but with the PV probably going to enter into a slight recovery phase there's nothing to suggest a return of easterlies for much of the rest of the month.
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Fergal (IWO)
February 10 2012, 01:51 AM
In any case it looks increasingly likely that we will be a couple of hundred miles too far west.....again, and central, eastern and southern Europe will see another (less harsh) blast.
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06 GFS shows northerly plunge down the North Sea
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Mark (IWO)
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There is about a 50% chance of that northerly plunge, referred to above, affecting Britain according to the GEFS ensembles. Only a 10% chance of it affecting Ireland.

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Meanwhile, things do like cooling down today week into next weekend according to the GFS. Looks like a NW to N flow. Of course, all subject to change. C0onfidence in this cold snap occurring is very low. Atlantic dominance remains odds on, primarily due to positive NAO.

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Simon Keeling
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ConorLK
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Yet another boring week ahead it seems with mild north westerlies for the most part, maybe finally a bit more interesting towards the end of the week but in the short term it looks like more cloud and drizzle around here
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Models hinting at a cold NW-N today week but it will be shortlived as the Atlantic looks like charging up again.
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No sign of any colder weather for at least the next week. Any hint of colder weather on the charts is beyond 6-7 days on every run. Trend is for Atlantic to remain in cotrol of our weather for the next week. The GFS is hinting at cold weather late next Friday into Saturday. NW flow would not be too disimilar to 12-14 Dec last i.e. heavy wintry showers blowing inland from the NW. See first attachment (bottom)

ECM pushes cold out to today/tomorrow week
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UMO and GEM in line with ECM

If all models stick to their guns with these dates up to Wednesday then we could be seeing some colder conditions. Money is on it staying relatively mild and turning more unsettled.
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Short cold snap fopr parts or all of the country next weekend, most likely late Saturday into Monday morning. Wintry showers at this stage are looking likely for Ulster and high ground elsewhere, as low pressure to the north of Scotland drags in cold northwesterlies.

Not much to talk about if you are looking for a late blast of winter. More like an inconvenience to those hoping that the Spring like weather will continue unabated.
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Slight upgrade for cold potential in 06 GFS on potential for wintry showers in Ulster next Sunday (see previous post).

The cold snap will be shortlived with the Atlantic reestablishing its influence during Monday. Much of the southern half of the country may escape showers entirely. In fact, the SE of the country may see a lot of sunshine and it will certainly not feel as cold here.

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UKMO update

Summary
From mild to unsettled

The past two weeks have been very cold across much of the UK - particularly England and Wales. Last weekend brought the coldest day and night of the winter so far with temperatures at Holbeach in Lincolnshire dropping to -15.6C, making it the lowest temperature recorded in the UK since Boxing Day 2010.

Following this very cold start to February, this week brings a marked change. The Siberian High that has been dominating our weather pattern for the past fortnight is withdrawing and high pressure is building to the west of the UK. This is bringing milder air from the Atlantic feeding around the top of the high and across the country from the northwest.

Gradually the high pressure will withdraw to the southwest of the UK, bringing a more unsettled and changeable pattern.
Monday 13 February—Sunday 19 February
A milder spell - but for how long?

The high pressure to the west of the country and subsequent northwesterly winds will bring much milder and breezier conditions than many parts of the UK have seen over the past two weeks. There will often be quite a lot of cloud with some rain and drizzle at times, but brighter spells will also be on the cards. Temperatures will become much closer to what you would expect at this time of year, but patchy frost is still likely in some sheltered spots by night.

During the second half of the week the high pressure will start to slip southwards. This will allow fronts to push gradually southeastwards across the country, bringing spells of rain, with colder, windier conditions following behind. Although temperatures won’t fall as low as they have been recently, we may see some wintry showers feeding into the north and an increasing likelihood of night-time frosts.
Monday 20 February—Sunday 26 February
A changable week

Westerly or northwesterly winds will continue to dominate through this week, bringing changeable, and at times rather cold and unsettled weather. This will mean much of the country will see spells of rain or showers, heaviest and most frequent in the north and west. The south will see the best of any dry and bright weather. There is likely to be an ongoing risk of snow in the forecast, especially, but by no means exclusively, across the higher ground of northern Britain. Given any quieter interludes, there will be a risk of overnight frosts, particularly in the south, but currently nothing quite as cold as through the first part of February.
Monday 27 February—Sunday 11 March
Staying unsettled

The generally changeable theme looks set to continue into early March. This means temperatures will be around or perhaps slightly below average in many areas. The weather will be characterised by further spells of rain, possibly with snow at times too, especially in the north. There will still be a risk of frost almost anywhere, but widespread severe frosts look fairly unlikely by this time. By the end of this period, parts of southern England may start to see warmer weather – perhaps a first taste of spring!
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It's as you were at the 06GFS in the 12 GFS. Short cold snap, with wintry showers for Ulster and N Connacht. Atlantic quickly reestablishes its influence with rain on Monday.
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Another high ground event by the looks of it, we might get a few snow showers here but slushy muck doesn't exactly excite me.

A few storms showing up on the latter parts of the ECMWF run, if we're not to get any real cold spell then a decent storm would compensate nicely
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As you were yesterday for this weekend with the 06 GFS. Cold north westerlies on Saturday and Sunday with scattered wintry showers for the north and west.
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Temps look like staying around average for the remainder of the month according to latest guidance. There will be a 24-30hr cooling down this weekend but that's about it as far as any potential cold goes.

Cool zonal up to March 1st.

Winter 2011-12 = cool zonal.

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Tuesday's 10-21 day outlook 14/2/12
From:Simon Keeling Of The Weather School Channel.


Video Link ............ http://youtu.be/YAdAEDLCCuc
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Simon's Weather Musings <<

March is around the corner...
...where does the weather go from here?

By Simon Keeling in Wombourne 08:00hrs 14/2/2012

I've been very impressed this winter with the performance of operational long range models.

The most user-friendly of these are the American CFS model, and the Japanese JMA model. The CFS is run daily, although the JMA is only available each week.

However, the similarities between these two in the coming weeks are notable.

Here's the output from the JMA from last Friday. It's the colours I want yo to notice. Those yellows and oranges over the UK indicate higher than normal heights over the country, which equates, generally, to higher pressure at the surface.

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Now compare this with the CFS forecast from 12th feb below. This is for the same period from 27th Feb to 4th Mar. It is the anomaly chart for 500mb, the same as the JMA, and the reds show where heights are higher than usual, and hence pressure at the surface is high.

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There are some differences between the two though, and these are rather subtle. The problem for a forecaster is deciding where high pressure will be and hence where the winds will be coming from. Right now I plump for temperatures probably become nearer normal as we end the month and head into early March, although I do have to say that we could well find the southeast corner getting a colder snap as February ends.

What can be more certain is that rainfall levels are likely to be staying below normal for all, with the driest weather across the south; exactly where the rain is need most of all!

The GFS Ensemble model backs up these thoughts and after a dip in temperature this weekend, leads to a rise in temperature towards the end of the month. But just notice that slight downward trend from the 25th onwards.

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More likely, by this time tomorrow, it wont show any snow.more than likely will downgrade, in time . -scar-ed[
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Thanks to everyone who contributed images over the past few months.

Images can be uploaded directly to IWO via the pictures section of this forum.

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The latest 12z GFS run, shows slightly more widespread snow,than the o6z run showed, with even some snow predicated for Sun as well now.Still a long ways go, as far as charts changes go,,,so its a case of .. -scar-ed[ for a few more days yet. h-e-h-e h-e-h-e


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For me it's looking like some wintry showers in the northern and northeastern parts of the country for a time during Saturday, but it's a fast-moving trough and will be moving quickly to the east as the high builds in from the west, putting a dampener on the activity of showers. Still some disagreement between the models regarding exactly how far the cold air will reach, with the GFS up to its usual antics. We could see some snow showers at all levels in the north Saturday, but still too early for any detail. A harsh frost looks likely on Saturday night, though.

My forecast for the rest of the month still remains unchanged, with a positive NAO and Atlantic systems becoming more frequent during the last decade. We may see the odd brief flirt with cold like this weekend's but overall I would say average to slightly above average temperatures, around average to slightly below average precipitation.
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Turning colder at the weekend but wintry showers look like remaining confined to Ulster, Connacht, north Leinster and west Munster. It will be feel very cold in a brisk northwesterly wind. Top temps on Saturday will be 4-6c, dropping to 1-3c (perhaps just below freezing in some sheltered inland parts) on Saturday night. Showers will retreat to northern parts of Ireland by Saturday night and Sunday morning.

Rain will spread northeast across the country late on Sunday bringing a rise in temperatures.

This transition back to milder weather will herald a much milder but unsettled period of weather for Ireland next week. Temps could hit 14-15c by late next week.

The below intimation features 850hpa temperatures (temperature at approximately 1500 metres) from Today, Thursday, to Thursday 23 February. The weekend cold snap can be seen being replaced by a milder southwesterly flow. This setup is indicative of winter 2011-12 during which our weather has been dominated by zonal conditions bringing often wet and windy weather from the Atlantic, interspersed by short colder northwesterly setups.

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Peter O'Donnell update:
SATURDAY ... Breezy to windy, turning colder in stages, hail showers rather frequent at first, then mixed wintry showers developing later and persisting overnight in some parts of the north. Temperatures steady 5-7 C then falling off to about 2-4 C late afternoon. Winds veering to NW 30-50 mph adding a chill.

SUNDAY ... Mixed wintry showers over some parts of the north early morning but otherwise clear intervals and quite cold despite a steady northwest wind in most places ... a few sheltered places well inland could see frost and lows of -2 C but otherwise lows 1-3 C ... sunny intervals mid-day, still quite cold as temperatures struggle up towards 5-7 C. Cloudy with rain or sleet arriving late, temperatures steady 4-6 C.

MONDAY ... Rain ending during the morning, turning considerably milder in strong southwest winds. Highs about 10-13 C.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, mild, windy, showers ... lows 3-5 C and highs about 11-13 C.

OUTLOOK ... Some very mild weather appears to be heading in later next week and it could reach 15 C in some places well inland in a southwesterly flow.
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Ulster and north Connacht are most at risk of seeing wintry showers tomorrow evening and night. The majority of showers at lower levels will be of hail or sleet. Accumulations of 2-5cm likely on higher ground in particular. Strong NW winds may carry a few showers into north Leinster
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