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Winter 2011-12
Topic Started: January 31 2012, 02:09 PM (1,873 Views)
Mark (IWO)
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LATEST FROM UKMO

Yellow Alert of Ice18 Feb 2012, 16:00
Valid from - 18 Feb 2012, 16:00
Valid to - 19 Feb 2012, 11:00

Sleet and snow showers will extend from the northwest on Saturday and last through Saturday night into Sunday morning. These are likely to lead to widespread ice developing on untreated surfaces. In addition some 2-5cm of snow is likely to accumulate locally away from immediate north and west facing coastal fringes. Over Northern Ireland there is a risk that 5-10cm of snow could accumulate in places on ground above about 200m. The public should be aware that this could lead to some disruption to travel.

The public is advised to take extra care, further information and advice can be found here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/links.html
The coldest winter you will ever experience is a summer in West Clare.
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ConorLK
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Impressively low dew points for tomorrow, a drop of 8C projected to happen here over 3 hours as the front passes through, from +6C at 3am to -2C at 6am and dropping as low as -6C during the day. Shame the front is passing through here so early on a Saturday morning, it'd be an interesting one to monitor but no chance I'm getting up that early at the weekend t-on--gu-e

Hoping I'll at least get to see a few heavy snow showers here, not expecting anything to stick for long but it'd be nice even just to see it fall. If not then some heavy hail would do nicely and maybe a bit of thunder if I get lucky. I was planning on heading out west for the day tomorrow but don't think I'll take the chance now with the road over Meenaroy undoubtedly going to have a lot of snow
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Fergal (IWO)
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You should get a bit of snow and some thunder too, so a good day overall!
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Fergal (IWO)
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An article on www.meteogiornale.it has an interesting comparison with Europe's recent cold snap and that of 1956.

http://www.meteogiornale.it/notizia/22598-1-febbraio-1956-e-2012-a-confronto-similitudini-differenze

The 1956 one lasted longer, however February 2012 is a close second to it.

These are the daily temperature anomalies for 1-13th February both years (compared to the 1981-2010 climate averages).

2012
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1956
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Attachments: Feb2012.png (83.25 KB)
Attachments: Feb1956.png (84.34 KB)
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Audi-Tek
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Since last Mon more or less,the GFS runs have shown the same snow outlook, more or less for 6pm tomorrow,with little or no change.So going by the GFS runs, we should get snow,,...? But I cant see that being the case, so I have come to the conclusion, that the GFS charts are useless to use, if one is trying to predict the weather, even in the short term.

h-m-m-m- h-m-m-m- h-m-m-m- h-m-m-m- h-m-m-m- Fru_s_trate Fru_s_trate Fru_s_trate
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Edited by Audi-Tek, February 18 2012, 12:29 AM.
Why is cloud 9 so amazing ? What is wrong with cloud 8 ?
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Fergal (IWO)
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These derived parameters, such as snow/rain probabilities and discriminators, should be taken with a pinch of salt. Always look at the raw parameters and deduce your own forecast, taking into account a whole range of factors.

I would say it is fairly certain they will see snow from say northern Mayo across to Down, but showers will be much less numerous further south and will be more sleety and of hail. Thunder should be fairly frequent in the far north too.
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Audi-Tek
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Met Éireann's (Irish Met) review of winter: "Dry and dull in parts; warm everywhere" .



Dry and dull in parts; warm everywhere
Mean air temperatures for the season were between 1.2°C and 2.0°C above normal, with all three
months of Winter recording above average air temperatures for the time of year. Mean air
temperatures recorded in the west and southwest were the highest relative to normal, with Shannon
Airport and Belmullet reporting their warmest winter since 1989 (23 years). Knock Airport reported
a seasonal mean temperature of 5.5°C, its highest winter mean temperature since the station
opened in 1996 (16 years). Most other stations across the country reported that it was not as warm as
the winters of 2007/2008. Mean maximum and mean minimum temperatures were all above
average, with the majority of minimum air and grass temperatures for Winter were recorded during
the cold spell at the start of February. Most lowest minimum air and grass temperatures especially
in the south and southwest were the highest in the number of years, with Valentia Observatory
reporting an Winter air temperature of 1.7°C and a Winter grass minimum of -3.1°C, the highest
recorded at the site since 1939 (73 years) and 1989 (23 years), respectively. Other stations in the area
reported their highest minimums in five to 17 years.
Majority of rainfall totals were below normal for Winter across the southern half of the country and in some
parts of the east. Rainfall totals were below average in the majority of these parts during December and
January, while all stations reported dry conditions in February. Most stations the east and south reported a
below average number of wetdays (days with 1 mm or more) and the driest Winter since 2006 (6 years). Highest
daily falls were recorded at various times, mainly on December 12th and January 29th, with the daily falls
recorded at stations in the south and southwest being the lowest in six to 15 years.
Percentage of normal sunshine values for Winter were nearly all below normal. Below average totals were
recorded during all three months of the season except at Dublin Airport, where above normal sunshine was
recorded during December, January and February leading to a slightly above normal value for the season.
Stations in the southwest reported the lowest amount of sunshine hours and sunshine relative to normal,
with Valentia Observatory and Shannon Airport both reporting their lowest winter sunshine since sunshine
records began at the stations in 1939 (73 years) and 1945 (67 years), respectively. Other stations reported it
was the dullest winter in 16 to 20 years, with Dublin Airport, who had above average sunshine this season,
reporting it was the dullest winter since 2006.
EXTREME SEASONAL VALUES AT SYNOPTIC STATIONS
Rainfall Highest seasonal total: 413.2 mm at Valentia Observatory
Lowest seasonal total: 136.0 mm at Casement Aerodrome (its driest winter since 2006)
Highest daily rainfall: 24.6 mm at Carlow (Oak Park) and Mullingar on 29th January
Temperature Highest mean seasonal temperature: 8.9°C at Sherkin Island
Lowest mean seasonal temperature: 5.5°C at Knock Airport (its warmest winter since records began in
1996)
Highest temperature: 15.0°C at Phoenix Park on February 23rd
Lowest air temperature: -6.3°C at Mullingar on February 2nd
Lowest grass minimum temperature: -11.8°C at Casement Aerodrome on February 2nd
Sunshine Highest seasonal total: 184.3 hours at Dublin Airport (dullest winter since 2006)
Lowest seasonal total: 72.0 hours at Valentia Observatory (dullest winter since records began in 1939)
Highest daily sunshine: 8.4 hours at Cork Airport on February 19th


Link........ http://www.met.ie/MetAdmin/useruploads/file/winter_summary_2011_12.pdf
Why is cloud 9 so amazing ? What is wrong with cloud 8 ?
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