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Spring Weather Discussion
Topic Started: February 29 2012, 04:13 PM (299 Views)
Audi-Tek
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Spring Weather Discussion.


h-m-m-m- h-m-m-m- Just what type of weather, will we see this Spring.Will we see more Winter type weather, or more Summer like weather .?


Late weekend cold, could it snow? 10-14 day outlook 29/2/2012 From:Simon Keeling of Weather School Channel .


Link ......... http://youtu.be/lVRuHCRFrEM
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Week ahead - February 29, 2012
Sleet & snow?
A colder weekend

Issued: 0900hrs Wednesday 29th February 2012
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling

Low confidence in the forecast for late in the weekend and into the early part of next week. Some models are hinting at colder air moving into the country with an area of low pressure. This could bring rain, sleet and even snow with it, as well as strong winds for a time. However, temperatures should begin to rise again by the end of the forecast period.


Saturday 3/3/12
A shallow area of low pressure will be west of Scotland on Saturday. This has a cold front associated with it which will be pushing eastwards through Ireland taking rain with it. A wet morning through Ireland, western England, Wales and southwest England. The rain then spills eastwards through other areas during the day. More showery weather follows from the west and these showers will be heavy at times. Highs near 16C in the south, 9C in Northern Ireland.

Sunday 4/3/12
Fronts will be edging eastwards through Wales and England on Sunday. This will be taking cloud and outbreaks of rain with it, some of these heavy at times. There will be sunny spells and showers through Scotland and Ireland. Highs at 12C in southeast England but a much cooler 4C in central Scotland.

Monday 5/3/12
Confidence in the forecast detail for Monday is low. There is the chance of a significant area of low pressure crossing the south of the country bringing strong winds and heavy rain. As this clears east, colder air will follow briefly turning rain to sleet and snow. Colder and brighter in Scotland and Ireland with showers here. Highs at 3 to 7C.

Tuesday 6/3/12
With a northeast wind over southern and eastern England conditions will be cooler here on Tuesday. Low pressure is expected to the east and this may give some wintry showers over East Anglia, the East Midlands and southeast England. A ridge of high pressure building to the west and north bringing mainly dry and bright weather here. Tops near 4C in the north and east, 7C in the west.

Wednesday 7/3/12
A ridge of high pressure remains over the country today. This brings more fair conditions with sunny spells and dry weather for most. Some cloud and outbreaks of rain affecting northern Scotland. A cooler day in the far south and the chance of some wintry showers in the far southeast. Highs at 6C in southeast England, 9C in west Wales.

Thursday 8/3/12
More unsettled conditions affecting Scotland on Thursday. This will bring cloud and outbreaks of rain here. For England and Wales as well as Ireland it is going to be a dry day. There will be some bright or sunny spells in central and eastern areas. Highs at 8 to 12C.

From Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling of www.weatheronline.co.uk
Edited by Audi-Tek, February 29 2012, 04:22 PM.
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Weather forecast: UK, from met office.


Headline:

Mainly dry and mild. Brighter than preceding days for many.
Today:

Starting generally cloudy, however many parts will brighten later, with cloud breaks spreading northeast from southwestern parts. It will be mostly dry, although the far northwest will see occasional drizzle, coupled with a brisk southwesterly breeze. Remaining very mild.
Tonight:

Mainly dry with clear spells. Western parts will become increasingly cloudy however, eventually with a little drizzle. A little cooler than the preceding night, although still frost-free.
Thursday:

Mainly dry, with eastern parts in particular seeing some sunny spells. Parts of western and especially northwestern UK will be cloudier, with occasional rain or drizzle. Remaining mild.

Updated: 0314 on Wed 29 Feb 2012
Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

On Friday, mostly mild and dry, but cloudy. Conditions this weekend will then turn less mild and more unsettled, with some rain spreading eastwards.

Updated: 0314 on Wed 29 Feb 2012
UK Outlook for Monday 5 Mar 2012 to Wednesday 14 Mar 2012:

Colder than of late with rain or showers and hill snow likely just at first, perhaps heavy, with a risk of gales in exposed spots. Cold and largely clear conditions are likely to prevail through Tuesday and Wednesday with a risk of widespread overnight frost, although further wet and windy conditions may return in the northwest. Through the remainder of the period conditions will be changeable, with bands of rain spreading from the west at times to bring cloudy, sometimes windy conditions to the UK, although amounts of rainfall in the south and east are likely to be small. These separated by colder, brighter and more showery interludes. Overnight frosts are likely in clearer, quieter spells. Temperatures may be low enough for some snowfall over hills, especially in northern UK.

Updated: 1227 on Wed 29 Feb 2012
UK Outlook for Wednesday 14 Mar 2012 to Wednesday 28 Mar 2012:

Indications are that conditions will gradually become a little drier in general with temperatures generally rising to near or a little above normal. Despite the nearer-normal temperatures, occasional overnight frost remains a risk, mainly in the north. Rainfall amounts across northern areas are likely to be near-average, whilst more settled conditions elsewhere will tend to lead to rainfall amounts around or slightly below average, especially in eastern and southern Britain.

Updated: 1227 on Wed 29 Feb 2012


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html
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Month ahead - March 02, 2012
Valid from 30/11 to 27/12 2011
High pressure dominates

Issued: Friday 2nd March 2012
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob.

High pressure looks as if it'll be the controlling factor during the short and medium term, low pressure and associated rain bearing systems for the most part kept at bay, some indication at least for time of a continental influence to the source region for our airflow, so perhaps 'cool' in part.
Through the middle of the month it does look as if there'll be a rather more unsettled regime taking hold for a time, however this is not expected to be long-lived and will not redress the deficit in rainfall that may areas are experiencing.
The latter stages of the month and the remainder of the forecast period sees the re-emergence of high pressure as a controlling influence, conditions once more characterised as mainly dry, settled and benign.

*..................14/03/12*
High pressure looks as though it'll be predominantly controlling the pattern through this period, a ridge stretched out across the central and southern slice of the UK. Here it'll be remaining mainly dry and for the most part settled, with some good sunny breaks and only variable cloud amounts
Northern Britain will also see a reasonable amount of dry and fine weather as high pressure will be close by, however it is likely that is through northern England, north-western Scotland and Northern Ireland that there will be the greater chance of seeing outbreaks of rain at times and a stronger breeze. Across these more northern areas it'll be noticeably milder and cloudier than beneath anticylonic influenced England and Wales, where given clear skies overnight, it will be chillier and prone to the development of mist or fog patches inland.
Through the latter stages of the period, high pressure will begin to decline allowing rather more showery conditions already into northern Britain to extend and slip south-eastward through England and Wales.

*15/03/12 - 22/03/12*
Declining high pressure across the whole UK will allow low pressure which has for far too long been held back to really make its presence felt across all areas.
Winds will become rather strong at times, mainly orientated from the west or southwest this bringing a general rise in temperature everywhere and outbreaks of widespread and welcome rainfall for many.
Low pressure should clear away to the east, allowing showery and brighter conditions to spread across all regions, sunny spells and heavy showers developing, perhaps with thunder and hail, cold enough to be wintry over northern hills. These beginning to die away as pressure once more build across the UK later.

*23/03/12 - 31/03/12*
High pressure reasserts its influence through this period a large anticyclone develops this likely to be the east or northeast, a chilly easterly breeze perhaps effecting England and Wales for a time.
It'll become mainly dry for all with sunny spells and just variable cloud by day, clear skies making it chilly overnight with inland frost and patchy mist or fog.
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Seasonal outlook - March 02, 2012
Unsettled late April
Improving through May

Issued: Friday 2th March 2012
Duty forecasters: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob


*April*
High pressure is in control of the pattern through the beginning of the month, so primarily the emphasis will be on mainly dry and settled conditions for the bulk of the UK, there is some hint of weak lower pressure to the south or southwest so perhaps the risk of showery activity across southern and south-western Britain but this is expected to weaken as pressure rises generally everywhere through the first week.
High pressure looks as if it'll be the dominant feature through into the second week of April when the pattern does looks as if it'll be destabilising as pressure falls across the whole of the UK and conditions turn generally more unsettled with showers of longer spells of rain appearing quite widely.
This unsettled weather may not be long-lived anyone hoping for a prolonged spell of wet weather may be very disappointed as by mid-month high pressure reasserts quite strongly and then looks like persisting throughout the remainder of the month. The winds mainly light and variable, the direction determined as to exactly where the main anticyclone is centred, this drifting about, so fortunes as to whether it is sunny or cloudy variable as will the temperature, local and terrain variations very evident.
Late in the month there is evidence that it may turn unsettled as pressure falls and it once again becomes rather more unsettled generally.

*May*
There appears to be a north-south divide during the opening week of May, high pressure established as a large feature to the north, lower pressure across southern Britain, mainly fine across Scotland and northern England whilst southern areas are rather more unsettled with an easterly flow potentially.
High pressure edges south for a time through the second week so fortunes improving across southern Britain, the north remaining mainly fine and dry also, through the middle of the month however all areas look as though they'll be affected by outbreaks of rain and stronger winds as low pressure takes charge.
High pressure takes control during the third week and for a time it may become rather warm, dry and sunny, however there is strong evidence for a general breakdown into cooler and more showery conditions quite widely as low pressure moves across the UK, this potentially heralding the beginning of quite an unsettled spell of weather for early summer?
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Spring 2012 - Long Range Weather Forecast - Updated 16th March 2012
Often mild and dry conditions have dominated the first couple of months of Spring, but will these continue throughout the season?

April
With high pressure often likely to have been the major player during March, April is forecast to see a change to lower pressure across the British Isles, with values closer to average for the time of year. The same can be said for temperatures, with rainfall potentially some way above average in some regions, but for much of the UK close to normal for the time of year.

Posted ImagePosted Image Posted Image
May
Into the final month of Spring, and May is currently expected to be another month with some fairly sizeable local variations in terms of rainfall with some regions some way wetter than average. A warmer than normal month is forecast across the whole UK.

Posted Image Posted Image

Forecast from Netweather tv.
Edited by Audi-Tek, March 23 2012, 07:32 PM.
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Satellite images show Ireland/ UK weather change.


Satellite images showing the change in the Ireland/ UK's weather over the past week have been released by the University of Dundee.

The cloud-free picture on the left was taken on Tuesday 27 March at 12:39, while the image on the right was captured at 11:56 BST on Tuesday 3 April.



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April Forecast issued by Ian Simpson (aka TWS) Of Netweather Tv on the 2nd April 201.



Changeable with frequent north-westerly winds

The high pressure that dominated our weather during March is set to retreat into the mid-Atlantic over the coming fortnight allowing increasingly unsettled weather to take charge across the UK with low pressure over Scandinavia, and there will also be a couple of wintry outbreaks.

The first of these wintry outbreaks will start on the 3rd April with a belt of rain moving slowly southwards across the country, turning to sleet and snow on high ground across Scotland and northern England. During the 4th the precipitation belt will make only slow progress southwards across England and Wales, with snow likely to low levels across the Midlands, Wales and parts of south-west England, and considerable falls on high ground. Eastern England will mostly see rain, due to the strong winds off the comparitively warm North Sea. In Scotland there will be a mix of sun and snow showers.

Between the 5th and 10th high pressure will sit stubbornly in the mid-Atlantic feeding relatively mild air around from the north-west, so temperatures will climb back above the long-term normal in most places, reaching highs of 13 to 16C in most places around the 8th-10th. There will be a fair amount of cloud generally and some bands of light rain, but areas to the east and south of high ground will also see some brighter interludes.

Towards midmonth the high pressure in the Atlantic will retreat further allowing a transition to a more unsettled, cyclonic regime with low pressure in charge and frequent north-westerly winds. There will be some rain belts with brighter showery weather in between, perhaps helping matters a little regarding the drought in eastern and southern England. Temperatures will drop below average, and I am expecting at least one brief northerly incursion with wintry showers possible from the Midlands northwards, though no major snowfalls. The cool unsettled weather is expected to continue until around the 20th.

During the last third of the month the theme of cool unsettled weather dominated by north-westerly winds will tend to continue, although I envisage one brief spell (probably somewhere between the 22nd and 27th) with a temporary build of pressure giving some warm sunshine for eastern and southern parts of England, while Scotland and western parts of England and Wales remain mostly cloudy and wet.

Overview
April 2012 won't be an exceptionally cold month by any means, but it may well feel that way after the exceptional warmth and sunshine of late March. I am predicting a Central England Temperature of 8.2C, and across the country temperatures will range from fractionally above the 1981-2010 average in southern England to 0.5-1.0C below across much of Scotland.

Despite an unsettled theme, rainfall will probably only come out close to normal in most regions, thus not really helping the drought situation in the south-east (though at least not making it worse). I envisage rainfall excesses of 20-50% across western Scotland and north-west England, but small deficits are likely in southern and south-western England.

Also despite the unsettled theme, sunshine totals will come out close to or above normal; sunshine will be within 10% of the long-term normal in most regions but I expect excesses of 20-30% in south-western Britain and also in parts of eastern Scotland.

Monthly weather forecast
This long range forecast is updated twice a month, covering 30 days on each occasion. As with any forecast at longer range, it's not possible to go into much detail and accuracy can tend to drop off toward the end of the period but it can still act as a very good guide to the weather during the upcoming month.
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Japanese keeps April cold & unsettled.


jet stream south of UK affecting most of Europe

By Simon Keeling 06/04/2012


The Japanese Met Agency produce fairly reliable medium to long range forecasts; at least I have been impressed with them through the winter months. And at the moment, the weather is in a predictable mood.

This evenings weekly update from the JMA is therefore no surprise in that it keeps much of the UK and Europe for that mater under the influence of cool weather, as the jet stream heads south and affects much of southern Europe in the coming weeks.

The week 1 forecast (from today to Thursday) highlights the ridge at 500mb west of the UK, and the trough to the east (spot Scandinavia under the area of dark blue. Remember I have rotated the picture so that we are the right way up!).

Posted Image
Week 2 is not good news for central and southern Europe, and ties in very well with the CFS. The jet stream is down over the south bringing unusually unsettled weather here (see where the solid black lines are closer together? That's the jet). It leaves the UK on the cold northern side of the jet stream; showers on the heavy side, the more persistent rain tending to the south of the country (if it arrives).
Posted Image
And the combined weeks 3 and 4 forecast, taking us through to 3rd May still has the jet through the Mediterranean, although I suspect this will be more so during the first week. So heavy showers again into the 3rd week of April for the UK, but then I think a ridge builds from the west, pushing the jet back north of the UK and bringing rain into Scotland, with fair weather returning to the south for a time.
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