| Summer Forecast ....? | |
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| Tweet Topic Started: February 29 2012, 04:48 PM (1,518 Views) | |
| Audi-Tek | February 29 2012, 04:48 PM Post #1 |
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Prince
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Summer Forecast ....? We are just about to start Spring, yet the race to issue a Summer Forecast, seems to have began.A certain Mr James Madden, of Exacta Weather, seems to be the first.Would have thought, he would be hiding away somewhere in the dark, for having got his Winter forecast so wrong . Solar Activity, Sunspots and UK Summer Weather Forecast 2012 As you may or may not be aware via my work and forecasts since 2009, I firmly believe that the UK has now entered a long term pattern of cooler wetter summers and more severe winters. Please feel free to examine any of my early blog or video entries. This does not necessarily mean that every summer or winter will follow this exact trend, and as a large part of this winter has also quite conclusively proven. However, it does mean that the vast majority of the summer and winters are likely to be this way. The main aim of Exacta Weather has always been to make as many people as possible aware of this transition in weather and climate over the coming years and decades. This period of transition is largely due to major changes in solar activity levels and how this affects major natural factors here on earth. This transitional period is also part of a cyclical and predictable pattern that has occurred many times throughout our earth's history. So let's take sunspots and their importance, for example. Sunspots are dark magnetic regions that are visible on the surface of the solar disc. The amount of solar energy we receive from these sunspots, and the earth directed ejections have an important bearing on a number of major natural factors including: 1. The heating of the stratosphere 2. Atmospheric circulation 3. Ocean circulation 4. Cloud formation Sunspots are also a good indicator of how magnetically active the sun is. The more magnetically active the sun is, the larger and more intense the sunspots are. Solar storms are also generally emitted from areas that surround these sunspots. However, a less magnetically active sun sets off a whole chain reaction of changes to a number of attributes that influence our climate and weather patterns. The sunspots and solar storms become less intense and infrequent when the sun is not as magnetically active. This also allows the cosmic ray flux to increase and hit earth more frequently. The increase in cosmic rays enhances low level cloud coverage and deflects heat back into space, something that occurred during the Maunder Minimum. UV rays are also an equally important attribute when the sun is less magnetically active. Less UV rays are emitted from solar storms when there are less sunspots. A decrease in UV radiation and solar winds hitting the earth's upper atmosphere alter the properties of the stratosphere, atmospheric circulation and the distribution of storm tracks. The amount of solar radiation that we receive also has an important bearing on the heating of ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream, which is especially significant to the likes of the UK and Ireland. I have also extensively reported on all of these factors quite frequently over the past few years. ![]() ![]() ![]() UK Long Range Weather Forecast - Spring & Summer 2012 Solar Activity, Sunspots and UK Summer Weather Forecast 2012 As you may or may not be aware via my work and forecasts since 2009, I firmly believe that the UK has now entered a long term pattern of cooler wetter summers and more severe winters. Please feel free to examine any of my early blog or video entries. This does not necessarily mean that every summer or winter will follow this exact trend, and as a large part of this winter has also quite conclusively proven. However, it does mean that the vast majority of the summer and winters are likely to be this way. The main aim of Exacta Weather has always been to make as many people as possible aware of this transition in weather and climate over the coming years and decades. This period of transition is largely due to major changes in solar activity levels and how this affects major natural factors here on earth. This transitional period is also part of a cyclical and predictable pattern that has occurred many times throughout our earth's history. So let's take sunspots and their importance, for example. Sunspots are dark magnetic regions that are visible on the surface of the solar disc. The amount of solar energy we receive from these sunspots, and the earth directed ejections have an important bearing on a number of major natural factors including: 1. The heating of the stratosphere 2. Atmospheric circulation 3. Ocean circulation 4. Cloud formation Sunspots are also a good indicator of how magnetically active the sun is. The more magnetically active the sun is, the larger and more intense the sunspots are. Solar storms are also generally emitted from areas that surround these sunspots. However, a less magnetically active sun sets off a whole chain reaction of changes to a number of attributes that influence our climate and weather patterns. The sunspots and solar storms become less intense and infrequent when the sun is not as magnetically active. This also allows the cosmic ray flux to increase and hit earth more frequently. The increase in cosmic rays enhances low level cloud coverage and deflects heat back into space, something that occurred during the Maunder Minimum. UV rays are also an equally important attribute when the sun is less magnetically active. Less UV rays are emitted from solar storms when there are less sunspots. A decrease in UV radiation and solar winds hitting the earth's upper atmosphere alter the properties of the stratosphere, atmospheric circulation and the distribution of storm tracks. The amount of solar radiation that we receive also has an important bearing on the heating of ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream, which is especially significant to the likes of the UK and Ireland. I have also extensively reported on all of these factors quite frequently over the past few years. 123 FIG.1 - Near solar maximum in 2001 (NASA/SOHO) FIG.2 - Galileo sunspots 1612 (Science Museum) FIG.3 - 27th February 2012 (NASA/SOHO) The point I am trying to illustrate here, is that we are now recording extra solar activity today that we weren't recording several years ago or through the lenses of Galileo's telescope (FIG 1 & 2). Just look at the magnitude of the sunspots from Galileo (FIG.2) 33 years before the Maunder Minimum in comparison to today's sun in (FIG.3). Galileo was simply recording these with his telescope at certain times of the day. Today, we are constantly recording solar storms and sunspots in 3D 'close up and from the side' since the NASA twin satellite launch in 2006. We are now also meant to be heading into a solar maximum and seeing some huge increases in solar activity according to many other sources. However, I have reported many times that solar activity and sunspots are minuscule in comparison to what they should be right now, and in accordance to all NASA's predictions to date in recent years. I have also strongly emphasised that the low levels of solar activity that we have experienced in recent years, will also enhance periods of low solar activity in the present and future solar cycles. We are now facing such an extremely low period of solar activity over the coming years and decades, due to the strong correlation of historical evidence that I have analysed repeatedly. Furthermore, in some of my earlier posts that date back over the past three years, I have also reported and stressed my concerns that we are heading for a new Dalton/Maunder minimum like scenario. Some recent solar activity indices and the behaviour of the thermosphere could also be a strong indication that this is occurring much sooner than others sources are currently anticipating. This will also not be counteracted by any so called effects of global warming or CO2 based on my own calculations, and the historical evidence that I have reviewed to date. In periods of high solar activity, up to double the amount of UV rays are emitted from stronger solar storms, which contribute towards the formation of ozone. This effectively traps heat radiation and acts as an insulator (warming) during periods of high solar activity. Summer 2012 outlook So in terms of this summer and based on the parameters that I consider, we are likely to see a continuation of this cooler and wetter trend for the summer as a whole. It would initially appear that another relatively grey and cool summer is on the cards for many. This does not mean that there will be no warm spells whatsoever throughout this summer. However, any warmer spells are likely to offer more in the way of some quite muggy and humid weather at times. I will also report on any viable warm periods of weather for up to two months in advance in my future forecast updates. I also don't want to go as far as saying that the summer will be as cold as last year, but I also don't want to rule out a similar scenario unfolding either. If we were to experience another summer of similar magnitude to the latter, then some serious scientific acknowledgement will be required as to where our future climate is actually heading, especially over the coming years. The Milankovitch cycle strongly vindicates that ice will return to parts of the northern hemisphere, once the summers become cool enough. The Milankovitch cycle also predicted this pattern with astounding accuracy in the past, and it also places us at this point in the Milankovitch cycle today. Conclusion At the very best we are looking at an unsettled to mixed summer for this year. The summer is likely to be hampered by periods of relatively cool and very wet weather at times. As a whole the temperatures for summer are likely to be near or below average, dependent on which scenario unfolds out of the given two. Rainfall amounts are also likely to be near or above average for the summer as a whole. In terms of the 2012 Olympics and although it does become extremely difficult to forecast for a two-week period this far out in advance, they are also likely to be pretty mixed in terms of the primary location in London. However, as we progress through August and into September, there is the potential for some warm or very warm periods of weather at times. A number of other weather events that have already occurred in other parts of the world this year, also appear to tie in quite well with a number of recent and historical weather observations that I have personally compiled. They also suggest another cool and possibly flood riddled summer. Now although I would prefer to report on the possibility of such events occurring nearer the time, my forecasting parameters suggest that the most prone time frame for any such flash flooding occurrences this summer are between the latter part of July and through to September. No Meteorological or climate models have been used in the production of this long range forecast, or any of my long range forecasts that date back over the past three years. They are all made on a number of personal observations that also include: solar activity and historical weather patterns from my own unique collective data. This is why I am able to issue a forecast this far in advance without being limited by what the models are indicating. These are the same methods that have served me pretty well to date and will continue to do so in the future over computer models. This method of forecasting allows me to make a long term judgement on the factors that I consider to be the most important, and what I also consider to be the most reliable in the future for long term weather forecasting. Disclaimer If any aspect of my original long range forecast requires amendment, I will make an appropriate revision of this for up to two months in advance when possible. This is effectively still a long range forecast in itself, if you compare this to that of others. Please allow some slight deviations in exact timing of given scenarios, I.e. some months may slightly overlap or periods of certain weather types may be more prolonged/shorter than originally forecast, due to the nature of long range weather forecasting and how far ahead this forecast is being issued. THE WINTER REVIEW WILL BE POSTED ON THE ACCURACY PAGE SHORTLY AFTER 1ST MARCH 2012. James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster) ExactaWeather.com Published: Monday 27thFebruary 2012 (10:50) GMT Best to read with a
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| Why is cloud 9 so amazing ? What is wrong with cloud 8 ? | |
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| skibboy | March 1 2012, 02:00 AM Post #2 |
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Light breeze
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So, Mad James doesnt know how the summer will come out.. could have told him that years ago...
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| ...its the weather, like it or not.. | |
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| Audi-Tek | March 19 2012, 09:30 PM Post #3 |
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Prince
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Weather Services International: Warm Late Spring and Early Summer Expected in UK and Northern Europe Continued Lack of North Atlantic Blocking Will Likely Result in the Warmer Temps - a Reversal of 2008-11 Observed Summer Patterns Andover, MA, March 19, 2012 WSI (Weather Services International) expects temperatures for the upcoming period (April-June) to average higher than normal across all of Europe, with the exception of parts of the Southeast. As we head into April, we expect most of Europe to continue to have higher-than-normal temperatures, with the exception of the UK, Iberia and parts of southern Europe, said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. As we head into late spring and early summer, we expect a distinctly different pattern than what weve observed over the last four years, when persistent North Atlantic blocking has been the norm. Specifically, this year, the expected lack of blocking should result in greater chances for summer heat in western and northern sections, rather than southern and eastern sections. Rainfall patterns also should be different. We expect a drier summer in the UK and Nordic regions and wetter weather suppressed farther to the south. Finally, our forecast also supports less wind across Germany/Denmark and more wind in Spain than weve had the last four summers. ![]() In April, WSI forecasts: Nordic Region* Warmer than normal UK* Cooler than normal Northern Mainland* Warmer than normal Southern Mainland* Cooler than normal In May, WSI forecasts: Nordic Region Warmer than normal UK Warmer than normal Northern Mainland Warmer than normal Southern Mainland Warmer than normal In June, WSI forecasts: Nordic Region Warmer than normal UK Warmer than normal Northern Mainland Warmer than normal Southern Mainland Warmer than normal, except southeastern Europe WSI, providing customized weather information to energy traders, will issue its next seasonal outlook, including the first official summer forecast, on 23 April. About Weather Services International Weather Services International is the world's leading provider of weather-driven business solutions for professionals in the energy, aviation and media markets, as well as multiple federal and state government agencies. WSI is a member of The Weather Channel Companies and is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts with offices in Birmingham, England. The Weather Channel Companies are owned by a consortium made up of NBC Universal and the private equity firms The Blackstone Group and Bain Capital. More information about WSI can be found at www.wsi.com. |
| Why is cloud 9 so amazing ? What is wrong with cloud 8 ? | |
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| Audi-Tek | March 19 2012, 09:59 PM Post #4 |
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Prince
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What maybe ahead in the run up to summer, rain wise...![]() ![]() ![]()
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| Why is cloud 9 so amazing ? What is wrong with cloud 8 ? | |
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| Audi-Tek | March 21 2012, 01:58 PM Post #5 |
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Prince
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Japanese summer forecast - COLD! Just look at that chill By Simon Keeling 22/3/2012 This is a remarkable forecast from the JAMSTEC model. have to thank Captain Bob for pointing this one out to me, as I had failed to spot and update and hence pass it on to you. But here we go with the surface temperature anomaly forecast from JAMSTEC. Here's March to May...near normal temps for the UK, but warm for much of Europe. ![]() The precipitation forecast is dry too over much of Europe... ![]() Then we get onto June to August temperature...and wow, how cold is that? The warmer air has shifted east ad the UK and much of Europe is more than 1C below normal. ![]() Rainfall June to August is nearer normal too. ![]() And the model keeps things cold, perhaps even colder September to November, Just look at how cold the Earth is, almost everywhere is below normal apart from parts of Argentina. ![]() Dry in northern Europe through the autumn, but wetter in the Meditarranean. ![]() Question is the effect this is going to have on energy and agricultural prices. The cooler summer may well lead to increases prices in the energy markets in the coming months, perhaps prices increasing? Where will commodity prices go? The cool conditions in Europe may lead to subdued crops and perhaps a rise in prices? Our clients are certainly busy right now as we advise on where the weather is likely to go, and how this may affect the market.
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| Why is cloud 9 so amazing ? What is wrong with cloud 8 ? | |
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| Audi-Tek | March 31 2012, 08:19 PM Post #6 |
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Prince
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Mark Vogan's UK-Europe Summer 2012 Forecast Is Released!! Warmer, Drier Than Normal Summer In Store For Spain, France, Extending Into UK If Spring Rains Are Sparse. Cooler, Wetter Early To Mid Summer For Central, Eastern Europe Dry spring could lead to a significantly warm June, July over England which periodically extends up into Scotland and west into Ireland The past 12 months have seen one of the driest periods on record from Spain to Yorkshire. This dry ground has helped produce record warmth and a persistency in drier, sunnier than normal conditions. The overall winter season of 2011-12 has been generally warm over Western Europe while cold in the East. This setup has meant ridging in the west and a teleconnection trough in the east. It's been a locked pattern which has supported continuation and worsening of the drought in west and cold and snowy in the east. There has been a clear relationship between these dry soils stretching from Spain to England and high pressure above. This very setup has brought near record warmth on Christmas Day 2011, February and of course record breaking warmth for Scotland in March 2012. My concern is that if we don't see much rain through April and May over particularly the UK then we could be looking at a serious situation once the summer atmosphere kicks in. Another Summer Like 2003, 2005, 2006 With Heat & Drought? I believe we are overdue another warmer, drier summer here and the current setup would suggest just that. I am going for a warm to much warmer than normal June, July over England and slightly warmer than normal across Scotland, Northern Ireland and Ireland. Of course a wetter April and May could change this whole idea completely and in that case our summer may end up an average one with unsettled weather followed by inbetween sunny, warm, settled conditions. It would take a lot of heavy, torrential and persistent rain to break the drought and I just don't see that just now and therefore I do believe, high pressure will continue dominating and this may lead to a significant warm spell or heat wave in June and or July which may extend northwards into Scotland and westwards into Ireland. The northward extent of a strong upper ridge of high pressure over the UK can be tough to forecast in advance and a jet stream flowing around the high, say over Scotland may lead to excessive rains which cause flooding. While I see warm, sunny days often over England, I think Scotland and Ireland may see a 50/50 summer with periods of unsettled, maybe wild weather with warm, settled periods in between with potential for a period of heat wave conditions lasting 7-10 days. A continuation of this dry year through spring makes one believe a heat wave is possible. Ireland and Scotland may get in on a heat wave too. Meanwhile across Europe, while hot, dry weather persists over the western flank of the continent, a chilly trough drawing cold air may keep things cool, wet and dreary. We live beside a big ocean and at high latitude and this makes long range forecasting very difficult. Unlike areas further south and landlocked which are suffering drought of similar magnitude could be have much greater liklihood of a hot, dry record breaking summer but for England, the current drought could grow stronger, become more extensive or it may reverse over the next couple of months. I am going by current conditions and what the long term pattern has showed us so far. With the dominance and persistent return of stronger than normal high pressure, I believe this will continue and bring us an overall warmer, drier than normal summer across southern and central UK, while slightly wetter, cooler over the north. There will be periods of more unsettled, rainy weather even across the drought areas and warmer, drier periods across the north and if things continue the way they are, we may face a major heat wave and potential for record heat. Video Link .................. http://youtu.be/qK-I0_sAqXw |
| Why is cloud 9 so amazing ? What is wrong with cloud 8 ? | |
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| Audi-Tek | April 5 2012, 09:22 PM Post #7 |
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Prince
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Long Range Weather Forecast - Spring and Into Summer 2012 - Updated 4th April UK long range weather forecast This long range forecast for the UK is updated once a month. Using the latest long range data from the NCEP and then run through custom software here at Netweather it is on the cutting edge of technology for long range weather forecasting. It is important to bear in mind that forecasting at this range is still in its infancy so can effectively be considered experimental. After some record breaking warmth in March, April has started on a much cooler and less settled note, will the remainder of Spring and first part of Summer follow suit? May May is currently expected to see high pressure often centred out to the west of the UK, with further higher than average pressure to the east of the country too, leaving the British Isles themselves in between the two. Another warmer than average month is forecast to be the outcome of this pressure pattern with rainfall widely close to average albeit with some locations potentially significantly wetter. ![]() ![]() ![]() Into Summer June Confidence at this stage is very low for both the summer months featured in this long term forecast, with some significant uncertainty with regard to the overall pattern and therefore the conditions on the ground. At this stage though, June is currently expected to be warmer than average for the time of year across the whole UK, with rainfall levels excpected to be around average country wide. ![]() ![]() July Confidence falls away even further at this point. The forecast model currently suggests that temperatures will again be above average with rainfall levels creeping up to be a little above average in some regions. ![]() ![]() This forecast will be updated on Wednesday 9th May Edited by Audi-Tek, April 5 2012, 09:24 PM.
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| Why is cloud 9 so amazing ? What is wrong with cloud 8 ? | |
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