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Polls
Topic Started: 24 Apr 2011, 22:31 (273 Views)
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Here opinion polls will be posted daily, starting from this Tuesday.
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Smyth Polls-Pre-Campaign Poll

Conservative-37%(-0.5%)
Labour-42%(-0.5%)
Liberal Democrats-16%(-1%)
Others-1.5%(-0.5%)
Undecided-3.5%(+2.5%)

DK: In this pre-campaign poll we see support for the undecideds. Everyone seems to go down here as some people are looking twice at their once preferred party. This seems especially the case for the Liberal Democrats who also have the "Wasted Vote" effect on their support, however, they'll have to overcome that. Once the ball starts rolling on the campaign trail, expect changes in the polls, some may well be vast.
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Smyth Polls-Pre-Campaign Seat Prediction

Conservative-216
Labour-376
Liberal Democrat-33
Others-25
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Smyth Polls-Campaign Poll-Day 1

Conservative-37.5%(+0.5%)
Labour-42.5%(+0.5%)
Liberal Democrats-15.5%(-0.5%)
Others-1%(-0.5%)
Undecided-3.5%(+/-)

DK: It seems like against the general swing of things the Conservatives have rose in the polls with their good start to the campaign however, there hasn't been the most active start to the campaign from any party. Labour are also up with their new moderate leader appealing to the middle class. The Liberal Democrats and Others are suffering as a result of the big two's progress but there is still a sizeable percentage of undecided voters.

Conservative-218
Labour-376
Liberal Democrats-31
Others-25
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Smyth Poll-Campaign Poll-Day 2

Conservative-38%(+0.5%)
Labour-42%(-0.5%)
Liberal Democrats-15%(0.5%)
Others-1%(+/-)
Undecided-4%(+0.5%)

DK: The Conservatives have again rose, Labour don't seem to be pressing home and further dvisions on the left hamper Labour. The Liberal Democrats continue to fall but the Others vote has held up. There has been an increase in those who don't know who they will put their x next to on Polling Day, those voters, are now crucial and key, to the outcome of the elections.
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Smyth Poll-Campaign Polls-Day 3

Conservative-36.5%(-1.5%)
Labour-42.5%(+0.5%)
Liberal Democrats-14.5%(-0.5%)
Socialist Labour-2%
Others-1.5%(+0.5%)
Undecided-3%(-1%)

DK:The Undecided standing recedes and that is the big thing of this poll, the Undecided are beginning to choose their positions and therefore who'll they'll vote for. Labour are up due to their manifesto launch and had it not been for the success of the SLP (Socialist Labour Party) they would have risen by more. The Liberal Democrats continue to suffer and early promise seems to have evaporated. The Others vote has risen but Conservative support has fallen, and quite sharply too, after their steady rise for two days. Please note that the BBC have used a different system for predicting the seat share, to explain for the considerable jump in seat share.

Seat Prediction

Conservative-246
Labour-354
Liberal Democrats-21
Socialist Labour-6
Others-5

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Smyth Poll-Campaign Polls-Day 4

Conservative-37.0%(+0.5%)
Labour42.5(+/-)
Liberal Democrat14.5%(+/-)
Socialist Labour Party2.5%(+0.5%)
Others-1%(-0.5%)
Undecided-2.5%(-0.5%)

Seat Prediction

Conservative-248
Labour-350
Liberal Democrat-20
Socialist Labour-5
Others-4
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Smyth Poll-Campaigning Polls-Day 5

Conservative-36.5%(-0.5%)
Labour-43.5%(+1)
Liberal Democrat-15%(+0.5%)
Socialist Labour-3%(+0.5%)
Others-0.5%(-0.5%)
Undecided-1.5%(-1%)

DK: The Mirror has proved to be a real winner for Labour. This has allowed them to make a sharp jump in the polls considering how topsy-turvy polling has been throughout the campaign. The Tories are down but the Liberal Democrats and Socialist Labour are beginning to see their campaigns pick up. The Others and the standing of the Undecided voters, is hit as a result. Soon enough, it will be all out warfare, on the campaign front.

Seat Prediction

Conservative-235
Labour-363
Liberal Democrat-23
Socialist Labour-6
Others-5
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Smyth Poll-Campaigning Polls-Endorsement Day

Conservative-37%(+0.5%)
Labour-44%(+0.5%)
Liberal Democrats-15(+/-)
Socialist Labour-3.5%(+0.5%)
Others-0.5%(+/-)
Undecided-)0%(-1.5%)

DK: Not a lot of room for movement in the polls from the start and the undecided voters seem to to have pledged their allegiance now. However, our polls aren't always accurate. Tomorrow, will be very crucial now. The Sun have proved to be the Tories saving grace.

Seat Prediction

Conservative-236
Labour-361
Liberal Democrat-21
Socialist Labour-7
Others-6
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Smyth Polls-End of Campaign Poll

Conservative-36.5%
Labour-43.5%
Liberal Democrat-15.5%
Socialist Labour-4%
Others-0.5%

Seat Prediction

Conservative-234
Labour-363
Liberal Democrat-23
Socialist Labour-6
Others-6
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